MotoMatters.com | Kropotkin Thinks

As the KTM saga rumbles on, it churns up an incredible amount of speculation and rumor in its wake. And as sure as bears performing their ablutions in the outdoors, the name of BMW pops up as a potential candidate to take over KTM's spot on the MotoGP grid.

I realize I am offering a giant hostage to fortune here, but I can confidently predict this will not happen. I have already written two pieces this year explaining why I do not believe BMW will enter MotoGP, but KTM's insolvency means more people asking me whether BMW are set to take their place. The answer, I still believe, is no.

The good news

But first, a quick update on the situation around KTM. Gerald Dirnbeck at Motorsport-Total quotes Austrian newspaper Der Standard, who have a report on the latest developments.

The good news for the people working at KTM is that their December salaries will be paid as promised. The good news for the company is that the Boston Consulting Group (BCG), in a report commission by KTM for their insolvency proceedings, sees plenty of potential for KTM's motorcycle manufacturing arm. They report that they expect to see annual growth of more than 10% in what they describe as KTM's 'core markets', and stable growth of 3.5% in the off-road segment, where KTM is the undisputed market leader with a market share of between 40% and 60%.

It is almost a ritual at this point. Every few months, a news story or rumor will pop up suggesting that a major motorcycle manufacturer is considering joining MotoGP. Usually after a senior executive has given a wide-ranging interview on a host of subjects relating to their brands, and at the end is asked, "oh, what about MotoGP?" and doesn't immediately reject the idea out of hand.

Earlier this year, it was BMW which was going to enter MotoGP. That theory grew off the back of two pieces of news. Firstly, an interview with the new CEO of BMW Motorrad, Markus Flasch, in which he was asked about MotoGP, and said that he would not rule it out. And secondly, the news that BMW had bought Suzuki's MotoGP data.

The latest set of rumors (as I referred to last week) refer to an interview given by Suzuki Motor CEO Toshihiro Suzuki about their position in the market and range of models. Suzuki-san was asked if there were any plans to enter MotoGP, and responded that though they were proud of having won the MotoGP title in 2020, "it doesn't make much sense if we don't have a complete and varied range of models to offer all motorcyclists. And I don't think we are in this situation at the moment."

Feed the beast

That hasn't stopped the MotoGP media from launching a barrage of stories stating that Suzuki is considering a return to premier class racing. The explanation is fairly simple. It is December, and very little is happening in the world of motorcycle racing. But the insatiable hunger for content must be filled (and for websites which rely on internet advertising income, the existential need for clicks and ad impressions), and so yarns get spun out to seem as large and significant as possible.

The reason there are currently only 22 bikes on the MotoGP grid, rather than the 24 Dorna has always said is the number they want, is simple. They have been keeping two slots open on the grid for another manufacturer ever since Suzuki pulled out of the series at the end of the 2022 season.

The phrase "another manufacturer" is a euphemism. The other manufacturer in question is BMW. Dorna have been trying to persuade BMW to enter MotoGP for decades. They came close shortly after the start of the four-stroke MotoGP era, with BMW building and testing a 990cc triple. But ever since then, BMW have been content to be an official partner, with German manufacturer supplying safety vehicles, sponsoring the BMW M Award for the best qualifier, and providing extensive sponsorship of each event.

Dorna took another shot at persuading BMW shortly after Suzuki pulled out at the end of 2022. Reportedly, BMW were offered Suzuki's entire MotoGP program (bikes, trucks, equipment) for free, if they agreed to enter MotoGP. BMW declined again.

Dropping a hint?

Rumors of a BMW entry into MotoGP persist. Speculation was reignited on the basis of comments by new BMW Motorrad CEO Markus Flasch in an interview with preeminent German magazine Motorrad. In a long interview about the current state of the Bavarian manufacturer, and the importance of the new flagship R1300GS launched earlier this year, Flasch was asked about MotoGP.

Entirely predictably, MotoGP is not going to Kazakhstan. Instead, the paddock will be staying in Misano - briefly moving out of the paddock to make way for the Italian Bike Festival IBF, which takes place in the weekend between the two Misano rounds, then moving everything back in again - before facing a mad dash to get to Lombok in time for the Indonesian Grand Prix at the Mandalika International Circuit.

That frantic dash encapsulates the state of the 2024 MotoGP calendar: teams will have to rush to get everything packed up into air freight containers, which will then be rushed to an airport to be loaded aboard the Qatar Airways Boeing 777s that will fly everything to Lombok. There should be just enough time to get there, but even a slight delay - for weather, mechanical issues, whatever - could end up leaving the teams with freight missing, and causing a delay to proceedings at Mandalika. Chaotic, disorganized, last-minute. It will probably work out fine. But the chances of something going wrong are uncomfortably high.

Why are Dorna risking the possible embarrassment of a Friday with no bikes on track? Because a policy they have pursued for many years, with relative success, has finally come back to bite them. Circuits have been signed up to the promise of a MotoGP round in the future, with financial guarantees to Dorna - either from insurance or from the circuit - if it proves impossible for the race to take place. As I understand it, in most cases the financial guarantees more than covered the losses that not holding the race incurred.

To lose one race may be regarded as a misfortune...

In 2009, Dorna CEO Carmelo Ezpeleta was facing catastrophe. The global financial crisis had caused Kawasaki to pull out of MotoGP, and for Honda to teeter on the brink of a decision to leave. The switch to 800cc had been disastrous, leading to processional races. Audiences were falling, teams were going out of business, grid sizes were falling.

Ezpeleta faced a problem, and that problem had a name. Shuhei Nakamoto, Vice President of HRC at the time, and de facto head of the MSMA. Dorna wanted cheaper, more competitive racing, with a wider appeal. Nakamoto wanted to win races and justify his spending on MotoGP to the board by pointing to the R&D that the sport facilitated, especially in the field of electronics. Nakamoto issued a firm 'Nyet' to any proposals for change.

By a process of browbeating, blackmail, and bribery, Ezpeleta managed to circumvent Nakamoto's veto. A return to 1000cc bikes and the introduction of the CRT class - highly tuned production engines with spec electronics in prototype chassis - helped fill the grid, and vastly improved the racing. In the run up to each new 5-year contract period, Ezpeleta managed to slip in conditions that would make racing cheaper, open up the grid, and attract three new factories to replace the two that left.

Divide and conquer

Ezpeleta's strategy was Machiavellian and brilliant. By taking the side of the teams, exploiting the ideas from inside Dorna and IRTA, and undermining Honda's dominance of the MSMA, he had found a way to topple Shuhei Nakamoto, MotoGP's most powerful person at the time. Ezpeleta was once again in charge of the sport, and had his hands more firmly on the tiller. The ship was on course, and though winds might blow it slightly to port or to starboard, the new format allowed the system to correct itself more quickly, and return to its original heading.

MotoGP returns to action at Silverstone this weekend, after five weeks off - longer than intended, due to the cancellation of the Kazakhstan round at the Sokol International Racetrack. It does so just as F1 takes its summer break, with no racing for the four-wheeled series throughout the month of August.

While the breaks are mutually beneficial - It is easy to avoid scheduling clashes in Europe for the two series with such a time away - it brings into stark contrast the relative power of the two series. Both F1 and MotoGP have a very heavy Spanish and Italian presence, with France also a major player in F1.

But anyone who has holidayed in those three countries knows that August is the month where the entire nation takes a vacation. Businesses shut down and everyone heads to either the beach or the mountains, depending on just how keen they are to escape the heat.

So if a race series is to have a summer break, August would be the month to have it. Though race teams and racing departments never really have time off, having time away from racing when family and friends are also free makes it a lot easier to organize social and family life.

Here's where I return to the contrast between the two series. It is plain that F1 comes out on top here, with MotoGP forced into a subordinate role. While the engineers at Ferrari have some time with their families, staff at Ducati Corse and Aprilia Racing are stuck in the office, parsing the data from Silverstone and Spielberg, and slaving through the weekend to try to find another few hundredths.

We are two races into the 2023 MotoGP season. Two races which took place under unusual circumstances – the season opener at Portimão was at a track where MotoGP had spent two days testing just a couple of weeks previously, and Argentina is a unique track where they raced in wet weather. So obviously, with the news that Toprak Razgatlioglu is to test the Yamaha MotoGP bike on Monday and Tuesday, it's time for some wild speculation about who might swap seats and who might be dumped for 2024 and beyond.

But first, a caveat. Beyond the signed contracts, this is just speculation on my part. Most of it is what I would do, based around the options on the table right now. A tiny part of it is based on drawing conclusions from talking to various people over the past year or so. Whatever you do after reading this, do not sell your belongings to bet on the outcome. Keep your money firmly in your pocket. Having said that, here we go...

What we know:

There are a few things which are set in stone, or the second best thing, set down in contracts. Contracts always have escape clauses, of course, but those are used very rarely. It is seen as an admission of failure by rider, team, or sometimes both when an escape clause is invoked. Better to sit out the extra year and invest in attracting a better rider. Contracts which are announced as one-year deals are often actually so-called one-plus-one deals, where both sides expect the renewal to be a formality, though it isn't necessarily.

When playing the game of Who Goes Where, first you have to factor in who already has a contract for next season. Of the factory MotoGP seats, 11 are already spoken for in 2024, with Franco Morbidelli the lone rider whose deal ends this season. (Hence the speculation, of course).

In its 75th season, the premier class of grand prix motorcycle racing is to introduce something revolutionary. For the first time since Assen moved race day at the Dutch TT to Sunday, MotoGP is to race on a Saturday. 2023 sees the introduction of sprint races, half-distance races to be held at the end of the day on Saturday, in addition to the usual full-length races on Sunday.

If you want to know exactly how this will work, I would refer you to the piece I wrote on Monday, answering most of the questions I have seen on the MotoGP sprint races. But it is worth asking what Dorna hope to achieve by the introduction of sprint races.

The short answer, of course, is to add some excitement to the series, and better value for spectators at the circuits. "It's time to give MotoGP more exposure, not only on television but also to the fans," said FIM president Jorge Viegas at the presentation of the new schedule at the Red Bull Ring in 2022. "We need more fans, we need a better spectacle, and we are going to fill the schedule on Saturdays."

Empty grandstands

This had been brought into stark contrast last year at some tracks. Attendance at the Portimão round of MotoGP had been mediocre, and Jerez had a little sparse. Mugello was almost deserted, a track where previously the hillsides had been packed. By contrast, Le Mans was sold out, and Assen was not far off being full. The German Grand Prix at the Sachsenring was heaving with fans, back to pre-pandemic levels.

Last week, the debate over the role of rider weight was reignited by a post on Instagram by BMW WorldSBK rider Scott Redding, comparing his own weight to that of Aruba.it Ducati's Alvaro Bautista, and asking whether there needs to be a minimum combined rider/bike weight in WorldSBK. To back up his claim, he posted some video clips and sector analysis from the San Juan Villicum circuit in Argentina. "I just think it should be as fair as possible for all of the riders," Redding wrote.

Though the sentiment is admirable, the thing about motorcycle racing is it is fundamentally unfair. Somebody else's bike will always be better than yours. Some other rider will be lighter, stronger, have it easier than you in one way or another. That is of little comfort to those racing in a particular class at a specific event, but it remains true nonetheless.

The way this has traditionally been dealt with is through what is usually called "the package". The combination of bike, team, and rider is different for each competitor, and rule makers have attempted to create space in each class to allow riders and teams to find multiple ways to be competitive.

Horses for courses

That does mean that each class requires a different set of specifications, depending on the philosophical starting point for that class. There are combined weight rules in Moto3 (152kg), Moto2 (217kg), and World Supersport (between 239kg and 244kg, depending on the bike). The reason for having a minimum combined weight in those classes comes down to a single, simple factor: in one way or another, the bikes in those classes are restricted from producing enough power to overcome the difference in combined weight.

It was a day we had been looking forward to for a long time: March 14th was the day that MotoGP Unlimited was to be launched on Amazon Prime. The series was due to be available in 170 different territories around the world.

As midnight passed in Europe, social media lit up with responses to the series. And unfortunately, those responses were very far from positive. Not because of the content of the documentary series, but because of the editorial decisions apparently made by Amazon Prime. In the UK and US, the only version available was the dubbed version, where actors have voiced over everyone speaking in their own language. In Australia, India, and some Southeast Asian countries, MotoGP Unlimited was not available at all.

The problems reported seem to be a result of decisions taken by Amazon, rather than either Dorna or The MEDIAPRO Studio, the producers of the show. But the process by which these decisions were made is very hard to fathom.

MotoGP Limited

In most territories, particularly in most European countries, the series is offered with a range of choices. In my own case (based in The Netherlands, and with an Amazon account with an address here), I have a choice of the original audio – where each of the participants speaks their own language, with English subtitles – or a number of different dubbed languages: English with audio description (where all speakers are dubbed in English and the action is described, for the visually impaired), Spanish, Italian, French, and German. In addition, there are multiple options for subtitles.

However, for anyone based in the UK or the US, those options do not appear, according to reports from people in those countries. There, the only option is the English dubbed version, and the choice of subtitles.