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OPINION: Does MotoGP Really Need More Than Five Factories?

By David Emmett |

It is almost a ritual at this point. Every few months, a news story or rumor will pop up suggesting that a major motorcycle manufacturer is considering joining MotoGP. Usually after a senior executive has given a wide-ranging interview on a host of subjects relating to their brands, and at the end is asked, "oh, what about MotoGP?" and doesn't immediately reject the idea out of hand.

Earlier this year, it was BMW which was going to enter MotoGP. That theory grew off the back of two pieces of news. Firstly, an interview with the new CEO of BMW Motorrad, Markus Flasch, in which he was asked about MotoGP, and said that he would not rule it out. And secondly, the news that BMW had bought Suzuki's MotoGP data.

The latest set of rumors (as I referred to last week) refer to an interview given by Suzuki Motor CEO Toshihiro Suzuki about their position in the market and range of models. Suzuki-san was asked if there were any plans to enter MotoGP, and responded that though they were proud of having won the MotoGP title in 2020, "it doesn't make much sense if we don't have a complete and varied range of models to offer all motorcyclists. And I don't think we are in this situation at the moment."

Feed the beast

That hasn't stopped the MotoGP media from launching a barrage of stories stating that Suzuki is considering a return to premier class racing. The explanation is fairly simple. It is December, and very little is happening in the world of motorcycle racing. But the insatiable hunger for content must be filled (and for websites which rely on internet advertising income, the existential need for clicks and ad impressions), and so yarns get spun out to seem as large and significant as possible.

So are Suzuki going to return to MotoGP? Back in August, I wrote a longish argument explaining why BMW are unlikely to build a MotoGP bike and enter the series. The central argument is that it would cost BMW too much to enter MotoGP, while the German manufacturer would gain little in terms of exposure over their role as official partner to MotoGP and supplier of safety vehicles.

Building and racing a MotoGP bike would cost somewhere between €50-70 million, which is probably ten times as much as they spend on the safety car partnership (though no figures are available for the cost of BMW's current involvement). What's more, BMW would have to build a two-wheeled racing department pretty much from scratch, as most of their current racing development is farmed out to independent companies such as alpha Racing in Bavaria or the SMR team which run the WorldSBK effort.

The power to act

All of this would cost money and effort, which would need to be approved at the executive board level in BMW. And Markus Flasch, as CEO of BMW Motorrad, the German automotive giant's motorcycle division, doesn't sit on the executive board. As the turnover of the BMW Motorrad is 2% of the company's total turnover, that is unsurprising.

BMW has history here. There have been rumors and reports of BMW entering MotoGP since 2006, with a three-cylinder bike being tested in 2007. For a full history of BMW's racing endeavors in both MotoGP and WorldSBK, see this story by Günther Wiesinger on GPOne. Suffice to say that BMW have never truly committed to grand prix motorcycle racing.

The same can be said of Suzuki. Their efforts languished through the first part of the decade, despite the occasional success. They cut down to a single rider for the 2011 season before pulling out in 2012. Suzuki returned again in 2015 with a completely new bike, eventually winning the title in 2020 with Joan Mir, only to withdraw again at the end of the 2022 season.

A question of passion

The reason given for Suzuki's withdrawal was to focus on company restructuring on the automotive side of the business. But to be honest, the corporation's heart was never in racing. As much as Davide Brivio begged Suzuki every year to expand from two to four riders, and the benefits that would bring, Suzuki's board turned him down year after year. Suzuki has withdrawn from most disciplines of two-wheeled motorsport.

So why would Suzuki change their mind now? If you consider Toshihiro Suzuki's response to the question about MotoGP in light of the above, it becomes clear that they haven't. "It doesn't make much sense if we don't have a complete and varied range of models to offer all motorcyclists. And I don't think we are in this situation at the moment." The admission that Suzuki does not have a full and varied range of motorcycles implies a second question. Do Suzuki even believe they need to supply a full range of models? Or are they better served by concentrating on certain profitable segments of the market?

If neither BMW nor Suzuki seem likely to enter MotoGP, are there any other factories which could join MotoGP? Going through the list of current major manufacturers and the chances are slim. Kawasaki is the smallest of the Japanese factories, and has just farmed the larger part of its WorldSBK racing program off to subsidiary and luxury sportsbike brand Bimota.

What is there to gain?

Triumph is another serious candidate, but like BMW, the benefits are limited and the costs are high. Triumph already benefits from the exposure of being the official Moto2 engine supplier, and get the benefits of R&D feedback in terms of reliability and endurance. They are also a relatively small manufacturer. In a successful year, they are on target to hit over 100,000 bikes sold, which would make them about a third of the size of KTM. And we don't need to mention what's going on with KTM at the moment.

What about Harley-Davidson? The iconic American brand has previously dabbled in grand prix motorcycle racing, including investigating building a MotoGP bike when the class went four stroke. But nothing ever came of it, in part because Harley-Davidson doesn't have anything resembling a sports bike. The Sportster is more of an entry level machine, and H-D is having enough problems balancing its entry into the adventure bike market against its traditional audience of cruiser riders.

If a new manufacturer is to enter MotoGP, it is more likely to be one of the Chinese bike makers. CFMOTO, QJMOTOR, Kove are looking to expand into the mature markets such as Europe and the US. Kove are preparing a rally entry, and CFMOTO and QJMOTOR are (or in the case of QJMOTOR, were) sponsoring Moto3 and Moto2 teams.

https://www.cycleworld.com/motorcycle-news/cfmoto-v-4-engine-and-teases…

CFMOTO seems like the most likely candidate, as the Chinese bike maker has already released details of a 1000cc V4 motor which is rumored to be the basis of a WorldSBK entry. Once established as a builder of sports bikes, it would be a logical step to expand into MotoGP.

Is it worth it?

The question is, of course, whether MotoGP needs a sixth manufacturer. As with the number of races or the size of the grid, the additional benefit of each rider, bike, or race decreases with each added. 18 races are special, 20 races is busy, 22 races start to fade into one another. With 22 riders on the grid, there will nearly always be enough finishers to score points, and a good variety of names on the podium and in the top ten. (Although Ducati stinking up the 2024 championship did not help in this respect.)

So what is the additional value of six factories over five? Beyond the mere arithmetic of six being one bigger than five? You could point to the case of KTM, where the threat of bankruptcy means that their future in racing is far from certain. Losing a factory to drop from five to four manufacturers would be a significant blow. In that respect, a sixth factory may act as insurance, to help keep the grid filled.

But would a sixth factory add much? You can argue that the loss of Suzuki has not made a great deal of difference to the complexion of MotoGP. The introduction of Michelin's new rear tire, which saw records smashed and Ducati dominate, has had a vastly greater impact, and the struggles of the Japanese manufacturers has had an affect on the perception of the sport. But adding Suzuki back in would not have made a great deal of difference, it seems to me.

An expensive bet

Any manufacturer joining MotoGP would have a mountain to climb before they were competitive. Even if they entered in 2027, when the technical rules undergo a reset, the five current manufacturers have a huge advantage. Ducati, Aprilia, Yamaha, KTM, and Honda all know how the Magneti Marelli electronics work, how the Michelin tires work, how to get the best out of Brembo's brake packages, and what MotoGP demands of Öhlins and WP suspension components. It would take a long-term commitment - five years at least - before a new factory could be fighting for podiums and victories.

Until that point, they would mostly be backmarkers. And you can ask yourselves what the additional value is of having two more bikes circulating at the back of the grid. Maybe in the long term, it pays off. But the cost of finding out is incredibly high. Who, after all, has €300 million lying around to make that gamble?

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Comments

Other than your comments about having a "reserve" manufacturer in case somebody else decides to fold, it's hard to argue with your thinking that it's unlikely to appeal to others, given the up-front costs. As for the five-year time frame, isn't that what KTM originally said they'd need to be winning regularly? And ... 

What MotoGP needs is more than one manufacturer. If MotoGP had even four manufacturers, it would be beyond glorious. Currently, for the most part, it has only one. If another manufacturer joined, it would still have one. Really miss having Fabio up there. 

David and readers,

I acknowledge the complexities and barriers facing a would be company from entering the category. So how to make the racing more interesting? Certainly, the 2027 regulations will aid in some respect, however ultimately the issue of the past decade or so will still raise to forefront. 

That issue being that the bikes are built to the ultimate performance requirement  of the tyres. Ducati have exceeded most other manufacturers by a large extent. It appears to me the simplest way to remove the existing issue is a return to the early/mid 2000s and remove the single tyre supplier rule. Back to the days when Michelin, Bridgestone, Dunlop and oother graced the grid. 

I acknowledge that there may not be tyre suppliers waiting in the wings, however we've seen in the lower categories new companies enter the sport for exposure (i.e.Pirelli). David and others, I would appreciate your thoughts on the subject both +/-.

Cheers

 

I feel the only way to open the sport up is to go to a homologated tyre list. 

Each tyre brand nominates a set of compounds to be used for the year - one update allowed at the summer break and made available to all teams. updates otherwise frozen unless on the grounds of safety. The fix compounds also introduces an element of uncertainty at each round, so creates a more of a wildcard effect and allows for some riders to find an advantage they otherwise would not have (think tony elias back in the day on dani pedrosas discarded tyres ;) )

This way, factories can go into a technical partnership with a tyre mob to build a bespoke tyre if they wish or the tyre mob can try and build a one size fit all and catch more factories. Costs are kerbed with the choice of compounds and constructions fixed for the tyre manufacturer and bike development costs are assisted with not being forced to redesign their motorcycle to suit a newly introduced tyre (ie. KTM's woes with the new rear and chatter issues)

A further wildcard is to allow the manufactures a mid year switch at summer break if they feel a rival tyre would be better suited to their machine. 

Of course none of this will occur due to the fact theres money to be made for dorna with a single tyre supplier, but in terms of providing a show, more tyre options are the best way forward, as motorcycles and their riders are greatly impacted by how a tyre works and getting the right tyre can make all the difference as demonstated time and time again through the ages of motorcycle racing.

Cheers
Joe
 

They pretty much have fixed compounds now.

Tyre wars, if my memory serves me correctly, more often than not meant that if you have a contract with supplier 'a', you will have a good season and the chance to win the title. Any other supplier...you wont win the championship but Donnington might be fun and/or a good monsoon may bring joy. Furthermore, if you are lucky enough to have the right supplier you might be down the pecking order and be chasing the tyre with the bike which is no different to now except that currently all teams are chasing the tyre. God help us if Ducati had a tyre built specifically for them, which they would have and by the best supplier. 

If a mid season switch was available then that might bring hope but you would be starting round 1 whereas everybody else is at round 11.

The easiest way to open things up is to give Ducati square wheels. Too many bikes, too good at handling data from too many bikes. At too many events things start off promising for KTM, Aprillia or even the Japanese. By Saturday it's all over and the top five is all Ducati, again. However, difficult to criticise people doing a better job than the others. Hopefully only the 6 bikes might change things. Hmmm.

“…Square wheels…” Hahahahahaha

I mean well done, they appear to have completed motorcycle racing on nightmare difficulty with a near flawless run, golf clap, very good etc. and in the process Ducati corse have made hideously expensive race programs look very very silly. Therein lies the rub: It’s kind of not cool to watch the death star lay waste to civilisations I have known and loved and jeopardise the health of the sport by being just too damn good. 

The nerd in me says phuck it: Ducati at large appear to be the only collective who truly deeply care about performance motorcycle dynamics. The fact they’re exposing everyone else for the cosplaying vanity exercise they have always secretly been is right and just (shame on you HRC, you should be the rightful contender). Unfortunately we are well passed the point of inflection where the rider, who is most definitely NOT cosplaying, can overcome the difference or coax performance and impressive finishing positions out of craft and guile.

I was a firm believer that complaints about mechanical regulations were reductive nonsense from the mouth breathing hoi polloi but having watched the two best bikes lock in to a very private and one dimensional encounter I now believe that it must be flattened and rebuilt in a manner more conducive to the lionisation of the incredible riding talent, what that might look like is beyond the pail. 
::whispers:: (It looks a lot more like Moto3…)

Statues to commemorate the unfathomable feats of the empire but watching it lay waste to all and sundry has become akin to being revolted by a house cat playing with its prey: rude and gross and a bit sad.

One could argue that the honda (and possibly the yamaha to a much lesser extent) would be far more competitive if it had a more supportive front tyre, something the michelin has NEVER had, this will never come about whilst the control tyre is in existance. Much like in the past when the control tyre was the bridgestone, the ducatis were nowhere, the tyre favoured the japanese ethos of balanced front to back motorcycle load or using the front tyre more - mainly due to the focus on I4 layout. (*side note* when ducati ran a non control bridgestone, it was bespoke for them and did well with them, esp with stoner).

The euro machines have always favoured a softer construction front becasue they focus more on the rear drive, due to a history of V motors, which means a rearward biased weight balance.

Sure, the japanese can recreate the whole motorcycle, that takes time and lots of money - which is what they are doing... or they can choose a different tyre brand ;)

You are 100% correct with the ducati and the data dominance of running 8 bikes. 

Not so sure.

The Michelin era control tyre began in 2016. In six of those 9 years a Japanese bike took the title. Of those six, two were won by inlines, Yamaha 2021 and Suzuki 2020. The other four years were taken by a Honda, as always, V4. 

Worth noting that Yamaha's resurgence from the 2018 low was completed by the new Michelin rear in 2020 which gave them the rear grip they needed. 

Just three years ago we were heading towards a new season with a Yamaha champion. Two years ago we had just seen Pecco and Ducati clinch the title in the last round from Fabio on a Yamaha. In that year Euro/Japanese wins split...50/50.

The current European and in paticular Ducati dominance (because only they are) is a recent occurrence, as is the slump in Japanese fortunes. It's huge, no doubt. Pre 2022 Euro bikes won 30% of the races on Michelins. Since then they have won 90%.

It's not the tyres fault.
 

as long as aero-wars are a reality, no other manufacturer will enter. the cost of developing good aero is astronomical. so a ban on all aero-shit is needed. After all : it's motorcycle racing, not aero-racing. If one want's aero-racing, enter plains and sailboats races.

the tyres also don't need to be as good as Michelin's rear. introduce worse tyres, than motorcycles do not need to be built specificaly arround a tyre and costs will also significantly drop.

and both will make for cheaper and better racing. Yes , the bikes will be slower, but not once have I thought "man, those supersport 600's or Moto2 bikes are slow, this is boring to watch".

On the crap tires. What if Michelin had to produce only one tire (and one rain) to be used at all circuits? Michelin, I'm sure, would be p*ssed at losing the development knowledge, but on the other hand it'd make their life a lot simpler. 

Right Baron?!! It may make you feel something much stronger, it did me. Appreciate you joining in w comment. WaveyD I noticed the opposite of are they slower, it was that they behaved like proper bikes. Slower off corners, yes. But so much goes on on the brakes, and the new NASA bikes seem an abberation. 

If it were just about lap time they could be attached to a metal rail and guided by a controller like "slot car sets" we loved as a child until we figured out how little was going on. Round and round they go...