MotoMatters.com | Kropotkin Thinks

We are two races into the 2023 MotoGP season. Two races which took place under unusual circumstances – the season opener at Portimão was at a track where MotoGP had spent two days testing just a couple of weeks previously, and Argentina is a unique track where they raced in wet weather. So obviously, with the news that Toprak Razgatlioglu is to test the Yamaha MotoGP bike on Monday and Tuesday, it's time for some wild speculation about who might swap seats and who might be dumped for 2024 and beyond.

But first, a caveat. Beyond the signed contracts, this is just speculation on my part. Most of it is what I would do, based around the options on the table right now. A tiny part of it is based on drawing conclusions from talking to various people over the past year or so. Whatever you do after reading this, do not sell your belongings to bet on the outcome. Keep your money firmly in your pocket. Having said that, here we go...

What we know:

There are a few things which are set in stone, or the second best thing, set down in contracts. Contracts always have escape clauses, of course, but those are used very rarely. It is seen as an admission of failure by rider, team, or sometimes both when an escape clause is invoked. Better to sit out the extra year and invest in attracting a better rider. Contracts which are announced as one-year deals are often actually so-called one-plus-one deals, where both sides expect the renewal to be a formality, though it isn't necessarily.

When playing the game of Who Goes Where, first you have to factor in who already has a contract for next season. Of the factory MotoGP seats, 11 are already spoken for in 2024, with Franco Morbidelli the lone rider whose deal ends this season. (Hence the speculation, of course).

Next, the satellite teams: VR46 has a contract with Ducati for 2024. RNF has a contract with Aprilia for three years. Gresini's contract with Ducati is just for 2023. LCR is a long-term partner of Honda, and is used by HRC as a place to field a Japanese rider, and put a talented second rider. And Pramac and Tech3 are now de facto parts of their respective manufacturers, Ducati and Pierer Mobility Group (the parent company of KTM AG, which is why Tech3 are branded as GasGas).

Not what it seems

Finally, the satellite teams. Both RNF Aprilia riders have two-year deals, as does Alex Rins at LCR Honda. The remaining nine riders are ostensibly on one-year contracts, if my notes are correct. My notes, I should add, are based partly on press releases and official statements from teams, which tend not to tell the whole story.

For example, Pol Espargaro and Augusto Fernandez are officially on one-year contracts. Unofficially, they are likely to be on one-plus-one deals, where the contract will be automatically extended unless something disastrous happens. Augusto Fernandez, especially, should have little reason for concern. After the fiasco of Raul Fernandez and Remy Gardner in 2022 – first and second in the 2021 Moto2 championship, then out after a single year in MotoGP – KTM cannot afford to have another one-and-done rookie on the books.

Conversely, Raul Fernandez officially has a two-year contract. But after what happened to him at Tech3 last year, and the experience of the start of the 2023 season, there is every reason to believe he could be out on his ear at the end of 2023, unless his results improve.

Who goes where?

Having said all that, here's what I expect to happen, and in some cases, what I would do if I were in charge. (Fortunately for everyone involved in the sport, I'm not...).

Let's start with Franco Morbidelli's seat in the Monster Energy Yamaha team. Morbidelli did his cause a lot of good with two fourth-place finishes in Argentina. But given the unique circumstances – a very low grip track, which suits his riding style better – there is reason to be skeptical that this is a permanent return to form. Morbidelli was 14th in both races at Portimão, 19th overall at the Portimão test, and 20th overall at the Sepang test back in February.

If Termas Frankie is the real Franco Morbidelli, then he keeps his job. If Argentina was an anomaly, then he is likely out.

The case against Toprak

But who do Yamaha put on the bike if they lose Morbidelli? With Toprak Razgatlioglu testing the Yamaha M1, conventional wisdom has it that the Turkish WorldSBK star is the logical choice. Certainly from a marketing perspective, Razgatlioglu being big in the Middle East and all of Asia.

That would not fix Yamaha's problems, however. Fabio Quartararo is still Yamaha's main focus in MotoGP, and clearly their superstar rider. But Yamaha only have two bikes on the grid at the moment, and given the situation with satellite teams, they are unlikely to get any more. The Yamaha is not exactly an appealing prospect at the moment, based on the results of 2022. And rumor suggests that Yamaha are trying to get the highest possible price for their bikes from a possible satellite squad.

That leaves Yamaha with just two bikes to collect data from. Having one fast rider and one slow rider means the data from the second rider is pretty much useless. And trying to solve problems based on the data of a single rider is nigh-on impossible.

If Yamaha hire Toprak Razgatlioglu, then no matter how great his talent, he will take a while to adapt to riding a MotoGP bike and get up to speed. He will also have to adapt to the very different pace of the MotoGP paddock, and of 21 or more rounds per season instead of 12 or 13. The best case scenario for Yamaha is that Razgatlioglu is competitive in 2025, or possibly the second half of 2024.

Are you experienced?

To avoid the pitfalls of signing Razgatlioglu, there may be a better option at hand. Jorge Martin has already made his bitterness clear at Ducati choosing Enea Bastianini over him to elevate to the factory squad. Martin is very open to offers, and is clearly competitive. More importantly, he is capable of pushing hard on new tires, which is where Morbidelli is struggling.

If Martin wants to be in a factory team, and Yamaha need someone who can push hard on new tires and provide data which is useful for Fabio Quartararo in setting up the bike, they could do worse than offer Martin a contract. The Spaniard is in his third year of MotoGP, and so has plenty of experience to bring. And at 25, he is young enough to have a decent future in MotoGP.

Young guns

Alternatively, Yamaha could go poaching in KTM's backyard again. KTM have the mouthwatering prospect of Pedro Acosta waiting in the wings, but they also have a distinct lack of seats to put him on in 2024. Yamaha, on the other hand, could offer him a seat in the factory team for next year.

The benefit for Yamaha would be obvious: they get one of the hottest up-and-coming stars from Moto2, who has proven how quickly he can adapt by the speed at which he succeeded in Moto2.

If KTM can't find a MotoGP seat for Acosta, they could hope to keep him in Moto2 for another year, but Acosta is likely to regard that as a breach of the agreement he made with KTM.

There are reports that 2024 is the last year of a three-year deal KTM signed with Acosta in 2021. That deal included two years in Moto2, with the guarantee of a MotoGP seat in 2024. But KTM seats in MotoGP are thin on the ground at the moment, with the factory team full up next season and major incentives for the Tech3 GasGas line up to remain unchanged.

So perhaps Yamaha could wean Acosta away from KTM, if they were willing to pay compensation. KTM already have experience of holding a rider to his contract, when KTM CEO Stefan Pierer publicly announced that Raul Fernandez would be moving up to MotoGP with the Tech3 team in 2022. That went badly, as Fernandez was unwilling to go to Tech3, souring the relationship from the start.

Rock and a hard place

KTM face something of a dilemma with Pedro Acosta. They can try to dispose of one of their Tech3 riders, but unless Pol Espargaro decides to retire – entirely possible given the injuries he sustained in that massive crash in Portimão, and which is likely to keep him out until at least Mugello – then it will be a bad look either way. Dumping Augusto Fernandez after one year would be the third rookie they had done that to, after Remy Gardner and Raul Fernandez, and would likely scare off other riders coming through the pipeline. Ditching Pol Espargaro would be internally unpopular, and be getting rid of a wealth of experience of the KTM RC16.

If KTM hold Acosta to his contract and put him in the satellite GasGas squad when he (hypothetically) had a shot at a factory seat with Yamaha, that could annoy him enough to try to leave KTM at the end of his contract. Or if they hold him to his contract but keep him in Moto2, that might be even worse.

So their choice might end up being losing Acosta at the end of 2023, or at the end of 2024. For the sake of peace and stability inside the organization, losing the Spanish youngster at the end of 2023 might end up being the lesser of the two evils.

There is an alternative route for Acosta, of course, which also serves as a way for KTM to keep him. The Pierer Mobility Group is all in on using MotoGP to promote their street motorcycle brands, as evidenced by branding Tech3 as the GasGas team. KTM's parent company has KTM, GasGas, and Husqvarna represented in Moto3 and Moto2, but only KTM and GasGas in MotoGP. If they can find a satellite team to supply with bikes and brand them as Husqvarna, that might be an avenue to put Acosta in MotoGP.

Musical Chairs

Ducati face problems of their own, now that Marco Bezzecchi has won his first race and is leading the championship. If Bezzecchi's current form continues, the Bologna factory will have to start supplying him with the latest spec of bikes.

The easiest way to do that would be to move Bezzecchi up into the Pramac squad. If Martin were to leave for Yamaha, that might be a possibility. Zarco's position seems relatively safe, as the Frenchman has uncomplainingly tested parts and setup for the factory Ducati team on race weekends, and has shown himself capable of scoring podiums.

The alternative would be to supply the latest spec of Desmosedici to the Mooney VR46 team again, as they did last year for Luca Marini. That would impose a greater support burden on Ducati, but would keep both Bezzecchi and VR46 happy, at least until the summer of 2024 when the great factory seat reshuffle for the 2025 season can resume again.

A wildcard at Pramac is Toprak Razgatlioglu. If he can't get a seat in the Yamaha factory squad, then Ducati could do much worse than snagging the Turkish WorldSBK star and putting him into the Pramac squad. The Ducati might suit his late-braking style better as well, and be easier to get up to speed on.

LCR Honda

One final comment on who might move in MotoGP. Takaaki Nakagami is safe on the LCR Honda Idemitsu bike for as long as there isn't another Japanese (or possibly Asian) rider to replace him. While Ai Ogura is recovering from a nasty injury to his left hand, fracturing a scaphoid and damaging ligaments, Nakagami's seat is safe. But if Ogura returns to the form he showed last year, racking up three victories and finishing second in the Moto2 championship, the Japanese youngster is likely to be moved up into the LCR Honda team in place of Nakagami.

Even if Ogura doesn't move up, Nakagami could still find himself losing the LCR seat. Somkiat Chantra is another possible candidate in the LCR Honda Idemitsu team.

What happens to Nakagami if he does lose his MotoGP seat? The most logical and likely thing for Nakagami to do would be for him to become a test rider for HRC, alongside Stefan Bradl. While Bradl is still fast enough to provide useful data, his feedback still has to be translated from English to Japanese for HRC engineers.

Nakagami's feedback as a rider has been praised by those who work with him. He is fast enough to provide useful data – anyone good enough to deserve a full-time seat in MotoGP is fast enough – but more importantly, he is Japanese. He can provide direct feedback to HRC engineers, with nothing lost in translation, either in terms of language or culture. As a test rider, Nakagami could be an important stepping stone for HRC in finding a path back to success.

The real problem in the rider market

The unspoken problem with finding space for new talent in MotoGP is that to get someone in, another rider has to leave. The years of paying grid filler, when a rider was on a bike because they brought a particular amount of sponsorship to the squad, are behind us. Everyone currently in MotoGP has earned their spot. Every single one of the 22 riders lining up in MotoGP has won a grand prix in at least one of the three classes. And 13 of them have also won a world championship.

Not only are these demonstrably the best riders in the world, but they are also remarkably young. There are just 5 riders who will be over 30 by the end of the 2023 season, with Aleix Espargaro the oldest at 34. The average age of the grid is 27.5 years, or 26.2 if you exclude the five riders over 30 (Aleix Espargaro 34, Johann Zarco 33, Pol Espargaro 32, Taka Nakagami 31, and Marc Marquez 30).

That leaves 15 riders in the prime of their career, aged between 25 and 28, with Raul Fernandez (23) and Fabio Quartararo (24) the youngest on the grid. There are very few candidates looking likely to leave due to age at the end of 2023, and all of them may choose to stay on at the end of 2024. Aleix Espargaro and Johann Zarco are the most likely candidates to leave at the end of 2024, with Nakagami possibly already replaced, and Pol Espargaro facing a major decision. Marc Marquez appears to have rediscovered his inner cannibal, and shows no signs of wanting to stop until he has a few more titles under his belt.

This year's crop of under 30s will still be under 30 by the end of the 2024 season as well. The 28 year olds - Franco Morbidelli, Miguel Oliveira, Maverick Viñales, Jack Miller, and Brad Binder - will all be 29 by the end of 2024. And all of them are in good enough shape to still be competitive in 2025 and 2026.

Full employment

There is, therefore, no room at the MotoGP inn. (A common problem facing anyone trying to book accommodation at many MotoGP rounds). The riders are the best in the world, and still have plenty of life in them. There is no real reason to ditch them in favor of someone else, unless that rider is a genuine phenomenon.

There may be room for Pedro Acosta (just), and Ai Ogura (because of his specific circumstances), but beyond that, the picture is bleak for Moto2 and Moto3 riders hoping to break into MotoGP. Jake Dixon, for example, has been very good, and in any other era, would have been a shoo-in for a seat in the premier class. Fast, successful, charismatic, and with the right passport – Dorna desperately want a British rider in MotoGP, to raise the value of the broadcast rights to BT Sport – but in the current era, who would you sack to make room for him?

Dixon is not alone. On the basis of his results, Aron Canet probably deserves a seat in MotoGP. But is he a better bet than Alex Rins or Joan Mir? What about Tony Arbolino? Alonso Lopez? Fermin Aldeguer? Celestino Vietti? Izan Guevara?

MotoGP finds itself in a quandary. There is a logjam of outstanding riders in the premier class, and no reason for them not to stay. And there is a growing pile of talented riders in Moto2 wanting a shot at MotoGP, and no seats to put them on. The side route via WorldSBK is looking less viable, for much the same reason.

Having too much talent is a good problem to have. But that doesn't mean it's not a problem. Good luck to the team managers trying to figure out this particular puzzle, for 2024, but especially for 2025.