MotoMatters.com | Kropotkin Thinks

The reason there are currently only 22 bikes on the MotoGP grid, rather than the 24 Dorna has always said is the number they want, is simple. They have been keeping two slots open on the grid for another manufacturer ever since Suzuki pulled out of the series at the end of the 2022 season.

The phrase "another manufacturer" is a euphemism. The other manufacturer in question is BMW. Dorna have been trying to persuade BMW to enter MotoGP for decades. They came close shortly after the start of the four-stroke MotoGP era, with BMW building and testing a 990cc triple. But ever since then, BMW have been content to be an official partner, with German manufacturer supplying safety vehicles, sponsoring the BMW M Award for the best qualifier, and providing extensive sponsorship of each event.

Dorna took another shot at persuading BMW shortly after Suzuki pulled out at the end of 2022. Reportedly, BMW were offered Suzuki's entire MotoGP program (bikes, trucks, equipment) for free, if they agreed to enter MotoGP. BMW declined again.

Dropping a hint?

Rumors of a BMW entry into MotoGP persist. Speculation was reignited on the basis of comments by new BMW Motorrad CEO Markus Flasch in an interview with preeminent German magazine Motorrad. In a long interview about the current state of the Bavarian manufacturer, and the importance of the new flagship R1300GS launched earlier this year, Flasch was asked about MotoGP.

Flasch gave a positive but relatively noncommittal response. "As head of BMW M, I have attended plenty of races, I know the responsibilities, and we are a brand that is present there. But that we would have to have good reasons for it [racing in MotoGP] is obvious, and so we are examining it closely. I wouldn't rule it out," he told Motorrad. But that was enough to launch a thousand stories.

Now, respected veteran Mat Oxley has a story that adds more fuel to the BMW-to-MotoGP fire. Oxley reports that BMW is said to be buying all of Suzuki's data from the final years of its MotoGP project for a rumored €18 million. That is huge news, and a fascinating development, given just how important data is in motorcycle development now.

Does this mean that BMW are working on a MotoGP entry, especially with the technical rules change from 2027? That is certainly a tempting conclusion. But Oxley's reporting includes another important detail. He made some discrete inquiries among senior engineering staff in the MotoGP paddock at Silverstone, and not had been contacted by BMW, Oxley writes.

On the one hand, data is the absolute cornerstone of MotoGP bike development. One of the main reasons Ducati is currently dominating in the class is because for the past few years, Ducati have had eight bikes on the grid, including four or five factory-spec bikes, plus top-level riders capable of battling at the front. "Data is everything to an engineer," Ducati Corse boss Gigi Dall'Igna told me a couple of years ago when I interviewed him about this.

But data alone is not enough. There has been a recent spate of engineer poaching, as factories have attempted to tempt senior technical staff away from rival manufacturers and into their own racing departments. The data can tell you what is happening, but experienced engineers understand why it is happening, and what happens when you try to change that.

So are BMW considering a MotoGP entry, as the acquisition of Suzuki's MotoGP data suggests? Or are they not interested in racing, as the lack of interest in hiring top engineers from other factories would seem to imply? Getting their hands on Suzuki's MotoGP data would be a huge development shortcut for BMW to build a competitive MotoGP machine. But they will need the experience of engineers to take that data and turn it into something capable of competing with the KTMs, the Aprilias, the Ducatis.

The money pit

Mat Oxley's article is fascinating and insightful, as you would expect. But I remain unconvinced that BMW are serious about actually entering MotoGP. By any objective standard, BMW belong in MotoGP and should already be active in the class. But the obstacles to an actual entry are massive. There is not much to gain, and an awful lot to lose.

Let's start with the cost of being competitive in MotoGP. In 2016, at the public launch of their MotoGP project at the Red Bull Ring, KTM (or rather, Pierer Mobility Group) boss Stefan Pierer told us KTM were entering with a five-year plan to win a world title. They have been successful in every discipline they have ever entered, he pointed out, and KTM and the PMG were determined to do whatever it took to succeed in MotoGP.

Though Pierer did not give any numbers at the time, it was public knowledge that they had initially set aside €50 million a year to invest in the project and try to become successful. That total has now risen to around €70 million a year.

Have KTM succeeded in their objectives? That is not as simple to answer as you might hope. The Austrian manufacturer has 7 grand prix victories and 2 sprint wins to their name, with Brad Binder's fourth place in the 2023 championship their best placing in the riders title to date. It has been a very strong performance. The question is, is it what KTM had been hoping for? And do they feel they are getting the return on investment they hoped for.

The amount KTM is spending is not exorbitant. It is roughly on a par with what the Japanese factories spend, and a bit more than the other European manufacturers invest. If you are looking for an idea of what BMW would have to spend to be competitive, somewhere between €50-70 million is a pretty good starting place.

Could BMW afford it? The motorcycle division of BMW reported earnings before interest and tax of €259 million for 2023, just inside their target EBIT margin of 8-10%. If BMW Motorrad were to spend €70 million a year on MotoGP, their EBIT margin would drop from 8.1% to around 5.9%. (This is a gross simplification, of course, but useful as back of the envelope guidance.) They could afford it, but BMW's management board would have to be convinced that the investment was worth it.

How, then, do Ducati, Aprilia, and KTM afford that level of investment? Precisely because their management boards want to spend that money in MotoGP. And when I say management boards, I mean CEO, and in the case of KTM's Stefan Pierer, major stakeholder in the company. Ducati CEO Claudio Domenicali is an accomplished rider and regularly rides a Panigale and even the Desmosedici on track. Stefan Pierer has decided he wants to be in MotoGP, so they are in MotoGP. Aprilia went into MotoGP because the Piaggio CEO and major stakeholder, the late Roberto Colaninno, was personally committed to racing in the premier class. The people who effectively owned the companies wanted to go racing in MotoGP.

Persuasion

Do BMW want to go racing in MotoGP? BMW Motorrad CEO Markus Flasch has made positive noises, but Flasch does not have sole say in this. The BMW Motorrad CEO is not part of the Board of Management of BMW AG, the parent company. BMW's motorcycles division provides 2% of BMW AG's turnover, and 1.5% of the group's earnings.

For an investment of scale involved in MotoGP, Flasch would have to go to the Board of Management and persuade them the return would justify the cost. And he would have to persuade them to sustain that level of investment for a period of 5-10 years. We do not know either way how the Board of Management of BMW AG would view such an investment. But it would require persuasion, and not just be accepted without question.

The biggest part of persuading the board to race in MotoGP is convincing them that the return on investment is large enough. At the moment, BMW are racing in WorldSBK, a series with much less involvement but the budget for which is a fraction of a potential MotoGP project.

But BMW are already heavily involved in MotoGP, and have been for a quarter of a century. They have been the supplier of safety cars and emergency vehicles since 1999, as well as safety bikes and bikes for the media laps, such as the laps done by Simon Crafar for the MotoGP YouTube channel.

The German car manufacturer also sponsors the BMW M Award, given to the best qualifier over the season. This, too, goes back long way, to the shootout at the Jerez preseason test in the early years of the century, where the winner was given a BMW M car. BMW also has advertising hoardings around the track and a VIP program inside the MotoGP paddock.

BMW get a great deal of exposure from their involvement in MotoGP, at a fraction of the cost of racing in the series. The question facing Markus Flasch and the rest of BMW management is whether they believe the return from racing will be worth the additional money spent. And what it means for BMW's current level of involvement.

Asking why?

From the outside - the perspective of a naïve journalist with precisely zero experience of running a large multinational corporation - the added value of racing in MotoGP is limited. With their current involvement, BMW get a ton of exposure with none of the brand risk of building a MotoGP bike that ends up circulating at the back of the field.

That doesn't mean BMW won't end up racing in MotoGP. Companies have their own reasons and calculations for taking part in racing, many of which appear impenetrable from the outside.

If BMW are not intending to go racing in MotoGP, why would they spend a rumored €18 million on acquiring the data from Suzuki's MotoGP project? Data is one of the reasons manufacturers go racing. There is so much to be learned about vehicle dynamics from racing in the extreme environment that is MotoGP which can be applied in all sorts of areas of vehicle development, in both motorcycle and automotive applications. The data has a value of its own.

Never say never

There is another possibility, as Mat Oxley points out. It could well be part of a feasibility study to assess whether to start up a MotoGP project. Studying the data from Suzuki would give BMW a clear insight into what it takes to compete in MotoGP, and the effort involved. It would also give them an idea of the benefits to be gained from racing in the premier class. That would then feed into a decision on whether to proceed, and how.

So BMW acquiring Suzuki's data from MotoGP may not necessarily be a sign of their intention to go racing in MotoGP. But there is a good chance that they are at the stage before that, of weighing up the pros and cons, assessing the scale of such a project, and trying to estimate the return from spending that much money.

Taking all of this together, you get somewhere close to an answer for the question, are BMW going to enter MotoGP? Maybe. Possibly? To quote BMW Motorrad CEO Markus Flasch, "I wouldn't rule it out."

One thing we can probably rule out on the basis of this sale, however, is what it means for Suzuki's view of MotoGP. If the Japanese factory is selling the data it acquired in its final years of MotoGP, then it shows that they don't believe they will be needing that data in the short or medium term. The chances of Suzuki returning to the premier class within the next decade or so are pretty much zero. They are probably out of MotoGP for a generation. And that is a shame.

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