MotoMatters.com | Kropotkin Thinks

Entirely predictably, MotoGP is not going to Kazakhstan. Instead, the paddock will be staying in Misano - briefly moving out of the paddock to make way for the Italian Bike Festival IBF, which takes place in the weekend between the two Misano rounds, then moving everything back in again - before facing a mad dash to get to Lombok in time for the Indonesian Grand Prix at the Mandalika International Circuit.

That frantic dash encapsulates the state of the 2024 MotoGP calendar: teams will have to rush to get everything packed up into air freight containers, which will then be rushed to an airport to be loaded aboard the Qatar Airways Boeing 777s that will fly everything to Lombok. There should be just enough time to get there, but even a slight delay - for weather, mechanical issues, whatever - could end up leaving the teams with freight missing, and causing a delay to proceedings at Mandalika. Chaotic, disorganized, last-minute. It will probably work out fine. But the chances of something going wrong are uncomfortably high.

Why are Dorna risking the possible embarrassment of a Friday with no bikes on track? Because a policy they have pursued for many years, with relative success, has finally come back to bite them. Circuits have been signed up to the promise of a MotoGP round in the future, with financial guarantees to Dorna - either from insurance or from the circuit - if it proves impossible for the race to take place. As I understand it, in most cases the financial guarantees more than covered the losses that not holding the race incurred.

To lose one race may be regarded as a misfortune...

But 2024 is different. For the first time in a non-Covid year, MotoGP has lost not one, but three races off the calendar. Not all of them due to the policy of signing up tracks on a speculative basis, but a confluence of factors outside of Dorna's control has conspired against them.

Losing the Argentina round at Termas de Rio Hondo was something Dorna could neither have anticipated nor controlled when they signed the contract. Termas de Rio Hondo was an established fixture on the calendar going back to 2014, and the event has survived a couple of changes of government. The election of Javier Milei to the Argentinian presidency, and his government's ending of all financial support for sporting and cultural events such as MotoGP was effectively just one of those random events that can occur on occasion, and nothing that Dorna could do about it.

Losing the Indian GP at the Buddh International Circuit was a deliberate choice, and from the point of view of Dorna, a sensible one in the long term. The money owed to Dorna by promoter Fairstreet Sports failed to be paid on time, and Dorna, wanting to establish the Indian GP as a viable project for the long term, threatened to cancel the event. It was perhaps something of an overreaction, as the Indian election prevented subsidies from the Uttar Pradesh government (where the Buddh International Circuit is located) from being paid before Dorna's deadline.

Better in the end?

But the standoff had resulted in a better situation for both Dorna and the Indian GP. The race will be the second event of 2025, after the opening round at Qatar, and held in March. Weather conditions will be much better in March than in September, the original date, as the heat will be manageable, rather than at the limit of human endurance. Marshals stopped work briefly last year, in protest at not having sufficient water to deal with the excessive heat, and riders suffered very badly in the conditions. Crowd numbers were believed to be down because of both the extreme heat and the uncertainty surrounding the race.

Dorna has made its point, and Fairstreet Sports has an opportunity to build a more solid foundation for the long-term success of the event. A race in March is easier to sell to fans, and the financial uncertainty of the political situation has been removed. India deserves a MotoGP round, given the massive fan base in the country, and the resolution found probably makes the event more economically viable.

But in their negotiations with India, Dorna ended up overplaying their hand. They could use the prospect of the Sokol International Racetrack as leverage to get Fairstreet to accept their proposals.

The cost of gambling

The trouble is, Sokol was on far shakier ground than India had ever been. The official reason given for canceling the Kazakhstan GP was logistical challenges resulting from floods earlier in the year. Word inside the paddock is that there are no financial concerns around the Kazakhstan GP, the real issue is one of suitability for a MotoGP event. Sokol is a long way away from anywhere, in time if not in distance. The facilities needed to run a MotoGP event - doctors, marshals, timekeeping, internet infrastructure - were not readily available, nor did there appear to be the will to fix it.

As much as Dorna wanted to hold a race at the Sokol International Racetrack - vanity projects in wealthy oil and gas states tend to be extremely lucrative - it wasn't feasible.

This is where things get difficult. In the past, circuits have been dropped from the calendar with few contractual repercussions. That is because, as I understand from talking to people on the TV side of things, when broadcast rights are negotiated, the contracts contain clauses which allow for races to be dropped due to force majeure, or circumstances outside of Dorna's control. MotoGP could afford to lose Argentina, and even India.

But those contracts also contain a minimum number of races which Dorna must hold. It is my understanding that 20 is the magic number in some of those contracts. If Dorna could not put on 20 events for broadcasters, the penalty clauses invoked could have turned out to be very costly indeed.

Help wanted

And so they had to scrabble around for a replacement. The first option was Qatar, but Qatar turned down Dorna's request. Unusual for the Lusail International Circuit, but perhaps they did not feel the deal being offered sufficiently reflected just how far they were going to help Dorna out.

With Qatar out of the equation, the wildest options started doing the rounds. Brno? It needed to be resurfaced. Portimão? Valencia? In the end, Dorna had to opt for Misano. The circuit was available, and willing to host a second round. And it was close enough to an airport to give Dorna and IRTA a fighting chance of getting everything out to Mandalika in time for the Indonesian GP.

This is not the first time that Dorna has signed speculative contracts with circuits. We all remember the Circuit of Wales, a track that never got built because the funding never appeared. That was another contract that nearly ended in disaster, given that at one point, the British Grand Prix was under threat. For a country with such a rich history in the sport (13 of the first 17 premier class titles were won by British riders), that was unacceptable.

A farcical situation ensued, in which Silverstone, the circuit which had lost the MotoGP contract to the Circuit of Wales, held a MotoGP round ostensibly organized by the Circuit of Wales.

Final Fantasy

Other race tracks have come and gone. The Balatonring in Hungary (replaced by Motorland Aragon). The KymiRing in Finland, the business case for which collapsed when travel between St Petersburg in Russia and Finland became ever more difficult. Circuits in Brazil, including Nelson Piquet near Brasilia, which never had the promised upgrades made to it, or the new Rio Motorpark which never got built.

These are just the tracks that got added to the calendar. There have been more which Dorna have signed contracts with, but never held a race.

On the one hand, there is every reason for Dorna to sign a contract to host a race at a circuit which is yet to be built or is in need of major upgrades to make it safe for MotoGP. A signed contract, or a letter of intent, can be the key to unlocking the funds needed to get the circuit finished. Mandalika in Indonesia is a prime example of this.

Rolling the dice

But too often in the past, it felt like races were added to the calendar with the knowledge that the circuit is unlikely to be able to actually hold an event. Dorna used the contract signing as a way of generating publicity, and adding a bit of extra international shine to the series. And if the contract signed had a penalty clause, or the letter of intent offered financial guarantees, all the better.

Kazakhstan is where this policy finally caught up with Dorna. A speculative, and potentially financially lucrative contract, which eventually ended up nearly costing Dorna more than they bargained for. Signing such speculative contracts was always something of a gamble, even if it was a relatively safe one. But sometimes you gamble and lose. The value of your investment can go down as well as up.

The lesson of Kazakhstan is that it is time to shelve this policy of speculative contracts with new circuits. Adding new circuits to the calendar is a good thing, but a little more caution, and a little more due diligence is in order. Making changes to the calendar mid-season, scrapping rounds due to entirely foreseeable circumstances two months before they are due to take place is not a good look for MotoGP.

It looks chaotic, unprofessional, unserious. It looks desperate, and desperation is not something potential advertisers are looking for in their commercial partners. A stable, established calendar, only subject to change due to events obviously outside of the organizers' control, is a much more appealing prospect.

Taking the long view

Here is one of the areas where Liberty Media can make a difference. Though Liberty have promised to let Dorna get on with the running of the series without interference, the backing of a major media player should make it easier for Dorna to think long term. With Bridgepoint as owner, Dorna's focus was primarily on providing the highest possible return each year to the private equity fund.

Liberty, with their extensive contacts and focus on growth rather than immediate returns, should allow Dorna to make better, more realistic choices when signing new circuits. And give those circuits more time to prepare.

It would be nice to know that when the FIM announces the provisional calendar for the following year, the changes to that calendar will be minimal. It would improve MotoGP for everybody involved, and give the sport a stronger foundation on which to build.

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