MotoMatters.com | Kropotkin Thinks

It's Only Friday, as the riders like to say to hype-hungry journalists after the first day of practice. That is of course true, but this It's Only Friday has brought a whole ream of fascinating stories to follow. It is far too early to be drawing conclusions for the rest of the season, but so far, 2025 looks a lot less like 2024 than we feared.

Yes, Ducati is still clearly the strongest manufacturer. The Márquez brothers topped the timesheets on Friday, Gresini's Alex beating Lenovo's Marc by half a tenth of a second. And in terms of pace, Ducatis are looking strongest as well: Marc Márquez was running 1'29.9s on old tires, teammate Pecco Bagnaia 1'30.0s.

But there are signs the other factories are catching up. There are as many Aprilias in the top 10 and directly through to Q2 as there are Ducatis (three). All five manufacturers are straight through to Q2. There are two Hondas in the top ten, Joan Mir an impressive sixth fastest. And Pedro Acosta is both quick over a single lap and running just a tenth or two off Pecco Bagnaia's pace on used tires. It has been very interesting day indeed.

Normally here I would be writing about the characteristics of the track, what to watch out for, where the passing opportunities are, and what the challenges are. But the opening round of MotoGP is at Buriram, where we had a test two weeks ago, and a race at the end of October last year. So I would refer you to those, as the track hasn't changed since then.

One thing that has changed is the heat. At the test, the temperature was in the low 30s °C. Hot, but bearable. This weekend, the temperature is expected to hit 38°C. Those will be some of the hottest temperatures MotoGP riders have faced perhaps since they stopped running Qatar during the daytime.

The heat will be brutal, though the fact that humidity will be low - forecast to be around 20% - means that wet bulb temperatures (used to measure the ability of humans to prevent overheating and suffer serious health consequences) will be within a safe range. Temperatures will be punishing, but survivable.

In many ways, the 2025 MotoGP championship promises to be one of the more interesting in recent years. Perhaps not the most closely contested - the general consensus among fans and pundits alike is that you can take your pick of whether it will be Pecco Bagnaia or Marc Márquez who ends up lifting the 2025 MotoGP crown - but behind the title fight, there are some fascinating developments to watch out for.

We may as well start with that title battle. The dominance of Ducati was so great last year that it is hard to imagine anyone other than Marc Márquez or Pecco Bagnaia walking off with the title. Despite the fact that they are sticking with their GP24 engine - a little more on that later - both Bagnaia and Márquez showed pace during the test, Márquez' race simulation at Buriram almost fast enough to win a sprint race.

In any other season, the MotoGP engine homologation rules are relatively straightforward. Or as straightforward as they can be when engines are sealed and set for a single season, with concessions for underperforming manufacturers.

But the imminent change of technical regulations for the 2027 season has added another layer of complexity. To reduce costs, and prevent factories from having to develop an engine for the 2026 season, as well as a completely new 850cc engine with a maximum bore of 75mm, engine development is also frozen for the 2026 season.

What this means in practice is that the engine design manufacturers in Concessions Categories A, B, and C (Ducati, KTM, and Aprilia) present for homologation before the opening grand prix of the 2025 season at Buriram in Thailand will have to remain unchanged for the 2025 and 2026 seasons.

Trust the process

That sounds simple, but there is a little more to it than that. So I have set out the process below.

The Buriram MotoGP test confirmed Ducati as the preseason favorite, with Aprilia a close second and KTM possibly on the prowl. But what about the Japanese manufacturers? After a couple of years in the wilderness, are they any closer to regaining competitiveness?

After the Buriram test, it looks like Aprilia have raised their game to start to disrupt Ducati's domination of the series. And it also appears they might have overtaken KTM, with Marco Bezzecchi just a fraction slower than Pedro Acosta, and much stronger in race pace.

So where does the Austrian manufacturer stand? And how are their signings of Maverick Viñales and Enea Bastianini to the Tech3 team working out?

While all eyes were on Ducati at the Buriram MotoGP test, especially because of the choice they faced between racing the GP25 or sticking with the GP24 and looking for improvements, it was easy to miss the other big stories on the grid. Stories which directly affect Ducati, as it happens. Because unlike last year, where Ducati pretty much had a free run at the MotoGP championship, it looks like the other manufacturers have made a big step in competitiveness.

Not enough to make betting on anyone other than Ducati winning the championship look extremely foolhardy. But enough to cause Ducati more than just inconvenience. MotoGP in 2025 does not look like being a one-horse race any longer.

Stepping up

It may sound strange, but Aprilia has come out of testing quite well, despite Jorge Martin injuring himself in the first couple of hours of the Sepang test. The bike is a big step forward, which I'll come to later. But the bigger step has been for Marco Bezzecchi, who has really grown in his role as factory rider in Martin's absence.

"This test, these tests don't mean anything, but it means a lot in the same time," said Joan Mir on Thursday after the MotoGP test at Buriram had finished. Though the Honda HRC Castrol rider was talking about the progress made during the test rather the results, he has succinctly summed up precisely how to view the outcome of preseason testing for 2025.

The standings at the end of the Buriram test do not set the outcome of the 2025 MotoGP season in stone. But the times set and the work done do give a good indication of where everyone stands ahead of the first round of the season, and the paths they are headed down. The results of preseason testing should be taken seriously, but not literally.

So what can we say about the outcome of the Buriram tests? A few thoughts, spread over several articles. Starting with Ducati. Why did they revert to the GP24? And does that mean they are going backward?

The final preseason test is a strange creature. Most of the work has already been done at the first test at Sepang. Parts have been tried, and either accepted for use or sent back for scrap. (The parts may be scrapped, but the ideas will be laid aside and the results used to make something better next time.) So there really is a lot less for the teams and factories to test.

Looking at pictures from Buriram, you would be hard pressed to see any new parts compared to the bikes used at Sepang. Or indeed new parts compared to the Barcelona test. As I wrote after Sepang, we are at the stage of MotoGP bike development where designs are converging on the most efficient aerodynamic shape. And we probably won't see any major changes until the new technical rules arrive in 2027.