MotoMatters.com | Kropotkin Thinks

The final preseason test is a strange creature. Most of the work has already been done at the first test at Sepang. Parts have been tried, and either accepted for use or sent back for scrap. (The parts may be scrapped, but the ideas will be laid aside and the results used to make something better next time.) So there really is a lot less for the teams and factories to test.

Looking at pictures from Buriram, you would be hard pressed to see any new parts compared to the bikes used at Sepang. Or indeed new parts compared to the Barcelona test. As I wrote after Sepang, we are at the stage of MotoGP bike development where designs are converging on the most efficient aerodynamic shape. And we probably won't see any major changes until the new technical rules arrive in 2027.

Those new rules have injected a note of extraordinary caution into proceedings. Engines have to be homologated for two years, at least for Ducati, Aprilia and KTM. That has prompted those factories to focus more on the engine than anything else. Even the aero packages, which also have to be homologated on the eve of the first round in Buriram, will only have to last for half a season or so, with updates still allowed. But get the engine wrong, and you are stuck with it for what could be two very long years.

All this has prompted Ducati to consider whether the upgrade to the GP25 engine is worth the risk. After the Sepang test there was already a clear tendency toward sticking with the GP24 for next season. That tendency has only grown stronger, with a decision to be taken on Wednesday night. By the time the bikes take to the track on Thursday morning, we will know for sure which engine Ducati will be running in 2025 and 2026.

The issue is that the GP25 engine Ducati brought to Sepang has some specific weaknesses. "We understood from the first day to today that the 2025 [engine] is a little bit more up and down. Very strong in some points, but very weak points," Marc Márquez said at Buriram on Wednesday.

The 2025 engine has more power and smoother power delivery, but it loses a lot in braking. Whereas the GP24 is a known quantity, with room for improvement. "They have the experience to use the 2024 in different race tracks, and they won 16 races last year, so that means that the bike has a very good base," Márquez said.

It isn't really a GP24 anyway. It is a revised and updated version of the GP24, with a few minor changes to the engine to make it better. "When I say 2024, it’s not the 2024 bike. It’s the base of 2024, the engine, but they worked a lot on very small items that we are introducing to that engine now," Márquez explained.

Márquez was the most positive of the two factory riders about sticking with the GP24, but that was only because Pecco Bagnaia was having One Of Those Days. Everything that could go wrong, did go wrong, and on a modern MotoGP bike, there really are an awful lot of things that can go wrong.

"We are lucky that today Marc didn’t have any issues, because from my side of the garage today nothing worked from the start of the day," Bagnaia said. "We had many many problems and luckily my team did a fantastic job to give to me a little possibility of riding, but today from the start of the day, nothing was working."

Bagnaia got a few laps on the 2025 fairing - almost indistinguishable from the 2024 fairing, the most prominent difference a couple of side pods on the tail of the bike - and despite the issues he was having, felt some improvement. Though the engine is the priority, getting the aero right mattered too, he said. "I think it’s also crucial the fairing, because you can change it just one time during the season, and the 2024 was working well."

What will Pecco Bagnaia, Marc Márquez and Fabio Di Giannantonio be racing in 2025? Almost certainly a GP24 chassis with a revised and slightly updated GP24 engine, as a known quantity. And probably the GP25 aerodynamics, though they will test that again on Thursday just to be sure.

Sticking with the GP24 engine, even in a revised version, may mean that Ducati lose some of their advantage in 2025 and 2026. But given the GP24 won 16 races, and 3 other races were won by a GP23, they won't have to fear being forced into anonymity by their rivals any time soon.

Will Yamaha be one of the rivals which starts to challenge Ducati's hegemony? At Sepang, it certainly looked like it. At Buriram, less so. That was in part because Fabio Quartararo couldn't find a front tire that would work for him. "I think this is one of the first times of my career that I didn't like any of the tires in the front," a surprised Monster Energy Yamaha rider told reporters.

That had a huge impact on the rest of the bike. "I think that we struggled quite a lot with the grip. But especially I didn't find any good feeling with the front, that especially for me is our really strong point, and as soon as I lost a little bit this, I'm completely lost," Quartararo said.

The lack of confidence in the front also made it harder to assess whether the bike was more stable in braking. Quartararo couldn't push the bike as hard, because he didn't trust the front. So he couldn't know whether it was better.

Teammate Alex Rins was a little concerned. He had grabbed a new rear tire on his final run, but not got the lap time he had hoped for. "Honestly, it looks like we are a bit more far than in Sepang," the Spaniard said. "If you see the classification of the four Yamahas, today we were quite close, all four riders, but not in the top positions."

Even though as a concessions manufacturer, Yamaha can change the engine throughout the season and has an extra aero update during the season, sorting the engine and aero ahead of Buriram is the big ticket item for the Japanese factory as well. Getting things right for the start of the season is important, even when you can change things.

Starting was another thing the Yamaha had done better. With a new clutch and altered strategy, the Yamahas were getting off the line better. But the strategy had some downsides too, and Fabio Quartararo said he would be going back to the previous system for the final day of the test.

With KTM PR staff absent from the Buriram test - until the insolvency process is completed, costs are being reduced where possible - neither Brad Binder nor Pedro Acosta attended a media debrief. (PR people are needed to keep both the journalists and the riders in line, to ensure both that journalists stick to the subject at hand and to keep the debriefs to the agreed 5 minutes. The riders speak to the written and online media as a courtesy only, as there is no contractual obligation to do so. The only media riders have to do by contract is to speak to the TV cameras at the end of the day.)

KTM PR did send out quotes from both Binder and Acosta, though they were of necessity brief. Acosta's quote did highlight were KTM had been working, though. "Today was a day where we focused on race pace and tried to understand how is the new bike in long distance and how it would work for the races."

Both Binder and Acosta did their best lap in the middle of a sprint simulation, and given that Acosta ended the day fifth fastest and Binder as ninth, that is in itself a very positive development. For both riders, their race pace was very strong, matching or beating the pace of Alex Márquez from the sprint race at the GP here in October.

After Sepang, it looked like there might be reason for KTM to be concerned. But as KTM start to put their package together and test their race paces, things are looking a good deal more positive.

Things are looking very positive for Aprilia as well. Despite the continued absence of reigning world champion Jorge Martin, Marco Bezzecchi made a big step forward on Wednesday. The Italian ended the day as fourth fastest overall, and with a much more comfortable feeling on the bike.

The combination of Bezzecchi working on the bike and Lorenzo Savadori concentrating on electronics worked very well, helped by Raul Fernandez, back from surgery and pushing himself to do a lot of laps. Fernandez was not particularly quick, but he could provide useful feedback, just what was needed at this stage in the preseason.

Bezzecchi is also relishing the chance to be a factory rider. "It was a strange feeling for me in Sepang," the factory Aprilia rider said. "Everything was new. I never had the possibility to develop a MotoGP bike. So, it was a big emotion for me but also a big responsibility for me to try to make a good job. In Sepang everything was good, fortunately, apart from missing Jorge of course, as everyone knows."

One important area where Aprilia may have found improvements is the starts. That was a real weakness of the RS-GP last year, but Bezzecchi felt very good with this year's bike. "To be honest, I felt really good since Montmelo, the first time in Aprilia. Of course I needed to improve a lot my way to use the clutch in Montmelo. Then in Sepang, I started immediately good, we had to work through the days to set a good base for my way to approach the start, but can't complain, we are still working on it. But to be honest, the bike is good."

Finally to Honda, and here too improvements are palpable. Luca Marini ended the day as sixth fastest overall, just ahead of Johann Zarco on the LCR Honda. But all of the Honda riders were positive.

"Better performance than last year," was factory Honda rider Joan Mir's assessment. "We’re closer to the good pace and on a good lap. This year we’re a bit better prepared than last year. Not enough but we made some improvements. The bike is more rideable. Today we improved the braking area."

Marini warned against drawing premature conclusions from the test, however. "Wait. Wait. We need to see at the first race," the Honda HRC Castrol rider told reporters. "Many, many riders still have something in the pocket. So is a little bit too early but we can be positive and try to our best with the package we have now."

The number of riders who pushed hard for a fast lap was relatively limited. Marc Márquez was one of the few to openly admit chasing a time. And risking, he admitted. "Always when you put new tires and you do a time attack, you take a risk. And if somebody says no, they're lying. Because always you push, you are braking harder, you accelerate hard, and I was even trying a front tire, because we have two different casings here just to try which one is better, and I push, I push. I took a risk."

That risk paid off. Márquez ended the day nearly half a second faster than anyone else, and within half a second of Pecco Bagnaia's outright lap record. The Ducati Lenovo rider has proved to himself he can be quick when he wants to, and that he suits the bike.

Will Márquez be fastest by the end of Thursday? He is guaranteed to have competition on the last day of preseason testing, with everyone out to try to set a benchmark time, to get an idea of where they really stand.

Wednesday was the last day of what you might term real testing. Thursday, the MotoGP grid starts to prepare for the opening round at the end of February. Carrying momentum from the test into the first weekend will be important. So while we can't draw too many conclusions from testing today, we will know a great deal more by the end of the test tomorrow.

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