MotoMatters.com | Kropotkin Thinks

The vagaries of politics meant that MotoGP missed out on going to the Termas de Rio Hondo in Argentina in 2024, and the vagaries of politics mean we are going back again in 2025. Probably for the very last time, as next year there will be a race in Brazil, at Goiania, and possibly another near Buenos Aires, where Dorna Chief Sporting Officer Carlos Ezpeleta visited in February.

The vagaries of politics are why Termas de Rio Hondo was built and then upgraded to host MotoGP in the first place, the regional government hoping to attract tourism and economic activity to a relatively remote part of Argentina. That makes it one of the longest and most tiring journeys for everyone in the MotoGP paddock, and also one of the most expensive. And given the diminishing returns from all forms of journalism, it means there are fewer reporters on the ground than there are working class people on an F1 grid.

It is a shame that Termas de Rio Hondo is such a long way from a major city, because the track itself is one of the very best on the MotoGP calendar. The remodeling done by Jarno Zaffelli's Studio Dromo transformed it from a simple track to a glorious, sweeping, challenging monster, with a bit of everything and a lot of what makes motorcycle racing so great.

After a relatively short run to the first corner - just long enough to house a row of pit boxes, rebuilt after they were burnt down during Covid - the riders brake hard for a long right hander, the track looping back on itself before a short run down to Turn 2, with just enough time to click it up a gear and then down again for the left hander at Turn 2. Then flick the bike right again, through the tight right of Turn 3 and then the fast right of Turn 4, in a mirror image of Misano ridden the direction it used to be.

Then onto the back straight, a kilometer along which the riders hit 345 km/h. At the end of that straight is the best place to attack and pass, the hardest braking point on the circuit and then the tight right-hand loop of Turn 5.

Being passed at Turn 5 is not the end of the world. The glory of Termas de Rio Hondo is that there are multiple lines through so many corners. Get passed on entry, and you can cut back and attack as the track turns left for the fast, flowing Turn 6, where you are hard on the gas and heeled over to head toward the next hard braking zone at Turn 7.

The right at Turn 7 is another place to attack, and another corner that opens out through Turn 8 and onto another short straight. Up a gear and then brake again for the left at Turn 9, then a flick right for Turn 10, then up another gear and a burst of gas to take you through the sweeping Turn 11.

All or nothing

Drive here is vital. There are three more corners and two more chances to pass, in a section which bears the spirit of Assen's GT chicane. Brake hard on entry at Turn 12, then harder as the right hander tightens into Turn 13, and your first chance to make the pass. But as you jam on the rear brake to try to force the bike to turn round that tight right, you have to be wary of the rider you just passed on the way in cutting back underneath into the final corner, the left hander of Turn 14. If they get ahead there, the short run to the line assures them of victory.

To get a feel for the circuit, study the data made available by Triumph from the Moto2 weekend here in 2023. See how little time is spent in fifth and sixth gear, but also how much the rear brake gets used here, a racer's primary tool to help turn the bike through long corners, or as in the bottom green line (the rear brake trace of the fastest rider in Moto2 Q2) to stop the bike from wheelying down the back straight.

What will we learn from the 2025 MotoGP round at Argentina? If previous years are anything to go by, nothing at all. The other downside of Termas' remote location is the fact that the track gets so little use. That means that the first day of practice is inevitably used just cleaning the track and getting some rubber down. The tragedy is that the track is only really starting to come into its own by the time the MotoGP circus is leaving town.

The sketchy conditions, and the fact the race is always so early in the championship, before the bikes and riders have had a chance to settle in and get their heads around this year's machines, makes for eventful race weekends, in every possible sense of the word. There are races that are normal. There are races where something weird always seems to happen. And then there is Termas de Rio Hondo.

Termas was the track where the cinders of a smoldering conflict between Valentino Rossi and Marc Márquez caught fire in 2015. It is the place where we had Scott Redding's rear tire let go in the first year of the Michelin era. It is the place where Andrea Iannone took out factory Ducati teammate Andrea Dovizioso at the penultimate corner, as they were on their way to a double podium, leaving Dovizioso to push his bike across the line to score points. And it is the place where the most surreal race of the past couple of decades took place.

The wildest of weekends

It would be wrong to describe the 2018 MotoGP race as incident packed. More accurate would be to say that in between the incidents, there were occasional outbursts of racing. There was the bizarre spectacle of Jack Miller starting six rows ahead of the rest of the entire field, after the Australian gambled on slicks for his sighting lap while everyone else had plumped for wets and rolled their bikes off the grid and into pit lane. Race Direction had to invent a new protocol on the spot to prevent the warm up lap turning into a race to the grid.

Then there was Marc Márquez stalling his bike on the grid, bump starting it, turning it around, and returning to his grid spot. It was the race where Márquez scored not one, but two ride-through penalties, the first for that illegal grid maneuver, the second for some of the most simultaneously spectacular and reckless riding ever seen.

I could do another recap, or I could point you to the races. You can either watch a full length version on the MotoGP YouTube channel, or a longer, fuller version on the MotoGP.com website. It is 90 minutes you will not regret wasting.

All bets are off

What we know about the Termas de Rio Hondo circuit makes it difficult to predict what might happen. A low grip, flowing circuit should make it ideal for Aprilia, especially as Aleix Espargaro took a very convincing win here in 2022. Marco Bezzecchi won the last time MotoGP was here in 2023, that time on a Ducati. So the combination of the 2023 race winner on the 2022 race-winning bike looks like being a formidable challenger. Especially if the current forecast holds, and it rains on Sunday.

But the man to beat at Termas de Rio Hondo will be the man who no one could beat at Buriram. Marc Márquez has raced here six times, from 2013 to 2019, started from pole on five occasions, and won half of the races he has started. Even in 2018, when the red mist descended and he completely lost his mind, he was anywhere between 1 and 2 seconds faster than the rest of the field. Even after amassing a total of 58 seconds in penalties, he was still classified just 43.8 seconds behind the winner. That math is pretty devastating.

The hope of the MotoGP grid will be focused on the fact that it has been six years since Marc Márquez was last here, having missed the races in 2022 and 2023 through injury, MotoGP not having raced here in 2020, 2021, and 2024. But given the Ducati Lenovo rider's track record, such hope hangs by a very slender thread indeed.

Contrasting fortunes

Argentina does look like having a lot of Ducatis at the front. Alex Márquez had an excellent outing here in 2023, with a podium and a pole on the Gresini Ducati. Coming off a double podium in Buriram will give the Gresini rider a real confidence boost that a lot is possible in Argentina this year.

For Pecco Bagnaia, this looks like being another weekend in which to grin and bear it. His best result here in any class is a fifth place in 2022. On his last visit, he crashed out of second place after having passed Alex Márquez. The goal will be to keep his head down and focus on scoring points, and not worry about what his teammate is doing. The championship is long, and points scored on his weakest weekends can end up making the difference at the end of the season.

This is a strong track for Franco Morbidelli as well. After a very solid outing in Thailand, coming to a circuit where he finished P4 in 2022, and won on a Moto2 machine in 2017, will be a confidence boost. After a miserable start to 2024, the VR46 rider is getting this season off on the right footing, and Argentina might be the place he makes another step.

Ai Ogura will be at the center of attention again in Argentina, after his very strong start to his rookie campaign in Buriram. Termas de Rio Hondo is a track where he has been fast in the past, getting his first ever podium here in 2022 in Moto2. If he can use the strengths of Aprilia, and continue to focus on calmly building speed, he could cement his status as the surprise package of 2025.

Unpredictable

The picture for KTM is mixed. Brad Binder has won here, in the sprint race in 2023. But outside of that, the Austrian factory's best results here have been a pair of sixth places, for Binder in 2022 and Jack Miller in 2023. Nor is this place particularly friendly toward rising star Pedro Acosta, his best result a seventh place in Moto2 in 2022.

Maverick Viñales has won at Termas de Rio Hondo, but that was way back in 2017 aboard a Yamaha. Whether he can repeat that on a KTM does not appear particularly likely.

What of Yamaha and Honda? The track surface lacking grip does the Japanese manufacturers no favors, as grip is something they are already lacking. But on the other hand, not having any grip in the first place means they have no grip to lose.

On paper, this should be a better track for both Yamaha and Honda. The Yamaha was strong at Sepang, a track with a lot of flowing sections. The Honda held its own at Buriram, a track where corner entry matters. The trouble is, of course, that though both Yamaha and Honda have shown strong improvement in testing, we are still only right at the start of the season, which makes it hard to draw any conclusions or make any predictions. We can't rule out the Japanese manufacturers getting close to the podium this weekend. Nor can we be sure they will even score points. If Argentina is a track where the unexpected is sure to happen, then heaven help anyone wanting to put money on the Japanese factories.

Record breaker

The one manufacturer that will be looking forward to Argentina is the French tire maker Michelin. The Termas de Rio Hondo circuit is the only track on the calendar where Michelin has not yet broken the lap or qualifying record. Marc Márquez holds the pole record, with a lap of 1’37.683 set on the Honda in 2014, while Valentino Rossi is still the race lap record holder, with a 1’39.019 on the Yamaha. Both those times were set on Bridgestones.

If the weather holds, then the new rear tire Michelin introduced in 2024 may propel them past those old records set by the previous single tire maker, and lay down a benchmark on the weekend after it was announced that Pirelli would be taking over as official tire supplier to the MotoGP class, in addition to the other grand prix classes. Whether we return to Argentina or not, Michelin will want to erase the memory of Bridgestone from the record books, and leave MotoGP with a full slate of records. It's a matter of pride.

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