MotoMatters.com | Kropotkin Thinks

Normally here I would be writing about the characteristics of the track, what to watch out for, where the passing opportunities are, and what the challenges are. But the opening round of MotoGP is at Buriram, where we had a test two weeks ago, and a race at the end of October last year. So I would refer you to those, as the track hasn't changed since then.

One thing that has changed is the heat. At the test, the temperature was in the low 30s °C. Hot, but bearable. This weekend, the temperature is expected to hit 38°C. Those will be some of the hottest temperatures MotoGP riders have faced perhaps since they stopped running Qatar during the daytime.

The heat will be brutal, though the fact that humidity will be low - forecast to be around 20% - means that wet bulb temperatures (used to measure the ability of humans to prevent overheating and suffer serious health consequences) will be within a safe range. Temperatures will be punishing, but survivable.

Some riders welcomed the heat. "To be honest, I don't really struggle with the heat ever," Brad Binder said. "I like the heat. So for me it's not really an issue. But for sure the track is going to be cooking, apparently."

Broiled and braised

The riders could be cooking too. Though 38°C may be bearable if you are in the shade, it may be significantly tougher if you are sat on a 300 horsepower motorcycle which is converting between 50%-60% of the energy from its fuel into heat, rather than work. Especially if you are also behind a number of other 300 horsepower motorcycles throwing their unused heat energy back at you.

Aprilia were particularly bad at this in the past. In 2023, Maverick Viñales was forced to retire as he could no longer handle the heat from his bike, while Raul Fernandez slowed by a second a lap with concentration issues. Small improvements were made last year, and more changes have been made to the 2025 bike.

Marco Bezzecchi told reporters at the Buriram test he hadn't had any issues with the heat so far on the Aprilia, but Fernandez was more cautious. "We have to work," he replied when asked about it. "I feel better, but it was not enough, I think. It is something we need to improve." He had still had issues at the test.

The big thing, though, is what happens in the slipstream. "How much will the hot temperature affect you when you are in the slipstream behind some riders?" Fernandez said. There is of course only one way to find out. And only one way to avoid it: to ride alone. Preferably in front of the rest.

From hope to reality

At the heart of this is the fact that as useful as testing is, it is not the same as racing. "Testing is testing, racing is racing," Marc Márquez warned against reading too much into testing results. Honda HRC Castrol's Luca Marini felt much the same. Testing had been positive, but conditions were very different on a race weekend. "Let's see the standard GP, in a normal situation with normal grip on track. It’s too early to be so happy."

Comparisons were hard as well, because of the various stages at which each of the manufacturers found themselves at the end of the Buriram test. Marco Bezzecchi had spent the first day of that test still working on parts and figuring out the best package to use, before putting that on track on the final day of the test. At KTM, Brad Binder said, they had used all of their time working on parts, and were only just putting together the race package for this weekend.

This is a process we see at the beginning of every season. The first few races are always confusing. This year, MotoGP starts off at a track where they have just spent two days testing, as usual, before heading to Argentina, a track that is always dirty and gets little use, then to the Circuit Of The Americas, one of the stranger tracks on the calendar, and the most physically demanding circuit of the year. From there to Qatar, a track with an exceptionally abrasive surface and where racing and practice takes place at odd times of day (late afternoon/early evening), and which provides great racing but unrepresentative results.

Only then does MotoGP head back to Jerez, a track the riders know so well they could ride it one-handed, backwards, blindfolded and in their sleep, and then on to the well-worn path of European circuits. "We need to wait a few races to understand the situation well, because during the test everything is fantastic. But for everybody, because the track is in a great condition," Luca Marini warned.

So as great as it is to be back racing, we should not be looking to read too much into the results this weekend. There are 22 sprint races, 22 GP races, and a total of 814 points up for grabs. Even a clean sweep of the first weekend won't mean all that much. 37 points are a drop in the MotoGP season's ocean.

Out of action

That will come as some small comfort for Jorge Martin, who is now set to miss both Buriram and Argentina, as he recovers from the left wrist injuries he suffered while training. The reigning world champion was back on a supermoto bike for the first time since breaking a metacarpal in his right hand in a huge highside at the Sepang test.

There is no clear timeline for his return, Aprilia Racing CEO Massimo Rivola said. "He will only come back when he’s really fit. We don't want to risk at all his condition. So regarding the championship I rather prefer to look at the new era Aprilia with these two new riders in a long term vision, rather than in a short term."

In the press conference, Marc Márquez, who speaks from bitter personal experience, said he had texted Martin to advise him against returning too early. "After being world champion, your motivation is extra, your confidence is extra and then sometimes you don't see the limit," Márquez said. "Following my feeling and my experience, I just said to him, respect your body. I didn't respect my body in the past, and I pay a lot. And I just said to him, if you lose 3, 4, 5, 6 races, it's nothing. He's young. He has a lot of talent, a lot of career in front. So we wish him a good comeback, because in the end, the #1 needs to defend the #1 on the race track."

The high cost of an early comeback

Márquez knows this all too well. In 2020, he broke his right arm on Sunday, had an operation to plate the humerus on Tuesday, was doing push ups in the afternoon, and tried to ride on the Saturday after that. He weakened the plate in that attempt, which broke when he opened a heavy glass door, requiring another operation, then a further two surgeries. Two years of severe pain, and a lack of success.

In total, Márquez lost three seasons to that injury. All because he wasn't willing to skip a few races. That should be a lesson for any riders wanting to come back from injury. Waiting that extra week will pay off handsomely, coming back too early risks being career ending.

There is a culture of enduring pain without letting on in motorcycle racing. Up to a certain point, this is a necessary evil. Riders are never completely injury free: hands are blistered from effort, bones are fractured, muscles are bruised, tendons are stretched, abrasions and friction burns abound. But there is a point beyond which gritting your teeth and knuckling down is counterproductive, and will damage your career in the long run. Happy the rider who can accurately see the line beyond which it is foolish to venture.

Title fight

Jorge Martin was the great absentee from the press conference, leaving the stage to just Pecco Bagnaia and Marc Márquez. That gave rise to a string of questions about their rivalry this season. Márquez has turned up 3kg lighter than previous seasons, a sign of just how serious he is about winning the championship this year.

"The first race is always special," Márquez told the press conference. "It's a different kind of butterflies in your stomach. But it's good, because the last years I didn't feel that fire inside the stomach and inside of me. And this year, I know that I'm in the correct place, or I believe I'm in the correct team on the correct bike if I want to fight again for the championship. And I will try."

Will there be mind games and conflict on track? "I think it will be an intense fight," Pecco Bagnaia said. "We know how strong Marc is, we know how good he is in the race and we have to be prepared for it. Let's see what will happen, but I don't think we will see something like Argentina 2016 between teammates."

Friendly fire

Argentina 2016, one of the most memorable races of recent times, and well worth going back to rewatch, is a momentous one for Ducati because of what happened in the penultimate corner. Factory Ducati rider Andrea Iannone tried to dive up the inside of his teammate Andrea Dovizioso, losing the front and taking both riders down on the very last lap. They were second and third at the time, and the pair were on for a double podium, in a time when podiums were a rarity for Ducati.

That incident cost Iannone his seat at Ducati, and assured Andrea Dovizioso of his place in the factory team. Iannone went on to Aprilia, and start the work of making that bike competitive, along with Aleix Espargaro. Dovizioso went on to challenge Marc Márquez for the championship in 2017, 2018 and 2019.

Márquez' position in Ducati is a new one for him, however. "I have like a new experience, new role inside the garage, because normally when I was inside Repsol Honda, I was always the guy with more experience, more status inside the garage, and I always tried to defend that position," the eight-time world champion admitted. "If another teammate arrived like Jorge Lorenzo, or Joan Mir, Pol Espargaro, I always tried to defend that status. And now it's a different one. Pecco has a lot of experience, so I need to learn from him and try to see what he's doing inside the garage and try to be fast on the race track."

That challenge starts in a few short hours. And by Sunday, we will see the first chapter in what promises to be a multi-volume history of excitement, thrills, and fierce battles. There may still be 814 points on the table, but as we have seen the last few seasons, every single point counts at the end.

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