MotoMatters.com | Kropotkin Thinks

At the end of every Friday practice, the riders like to remind us that it is only Friday, and we shouldn't read too much into the times. Fat chance, of course, but they have a point. But "it's only Friday" takes on extra potency at the Termas de Rio Hondo circuit, given the changing nature of the track. Especially after it rained heavily overnight, and the track started the day wet and took a long time to dry out. High humidity and low temperatures add another layer of complexity, just to liven things up.

The track started off cleaner than expected. "Yesterday when I made the track walk, I thought that the track was more dirty," Marco Bezzecchi said at the end of the first day. "But when I rode the bike this morning, to be honest it was much much better compared to the past times we came here."

The track may have started from a better base, but the grip levels were still changing on pretty much every exit as more and more rubber got laid down. That makes working out where riders stand relatively complicated, though we can take a stab at it by looking at the timesheets.

MotoGP is back at Termas de Rio Hondo in Argentina, so what better way to start than with news about Austin, Texas? The reigning world champion isn't in Argentina, and wasn't scheduled to be in the pre-event press conference, but he called in anyway, phoning in from his car. His recovery from the scaphoid injury he suffered in a training crash wasn't proceeding as quickly as he hoped, he said, and he wouldn't be able to ride at the Grand Prix Of The Americas in Austin, Texas. And probably not in Qatar either.

"I'm really suffering," Martin said. "It's not my moment, I'm struggling to recover as fast as I would like." He would skip Austin and maybe also Qatar, and would really like to test himself before he returned to racing. "I would like to make some kind of test before coming back to racing, because I'm not feeling really good. And I know Massimo [Rivola, Aprilia Racing CEO] is also working on that, let's see if we can make it possible."

A test is going to be hard. Martin is able to ride a production bike, but Aprilia is in category C as far as concessions are concerned. That means no testing for contracted riders (i.e. riders on the official MotoGP entry list for 2025) outside of official IRTA tests. The first IRTA test is at Jerez. And if Martin is going to ride at the test in Jerez, he might as well try to ride at the weekend.

Patience is a virtue

Normally here I would be writing about the characteristics of the track, what to watch out for, where the passing opportunities are, and what the challenges are. But the opening round of MotoGP is at Buriram, where we had a test two weeks ago, and a race at the end of October last year. So I would refer you to those, as the track hasn't changed since then.

One thing that has changed is the heat. At the test, the temperature was in the low 30s °C. Hot, but bearable. This weekend, the temperature is expected to hit 38°C. Those will be some of the hottest temperatures MotoGP riders have faced perhaps since they stopped running Qatar during the daytime.

The heat will be brutal, though the fact that humidity will be low - forecast to be around 20% - means that wet bulb temperatures (used to measure the ability of humans to prevent overheating and suffer serious health consequences) will be within a safe range. Temperatures will be punishing, but survivable.

In many ways, the 2025 MotoGP championship promises to be one of the more interesting in recent years. Perhaps not the most closely contested - the general consensus among fans and pundits alike is that you can take your pick of whether it will be Pecco Bagnaia or Marc Márquez who ends up lifting the 2025 MotoGP crown - but behind the title fight, there are some fascinating developments to watch out for.

We may as well start with that title battle. The dominance of Ducati was so great last year that it is hard to imagine anyone other than Marc Márquez or Pecco Bagnaia walking off with the title. Despite the fact that they are sticking with their GP24 engine - a little more on that later - both Bagnaia and Márquez showed pace during the test, Márquez' race simulation at Buriram almost fast enough to win a sprint race.

While all eyes were on Ducati at the Buriram MotoGP test, especially because of the choice they faced between racing the GP25 or sticking with the GP24 and looking for improvements, it was easy to miss the other big stories on the grid. Stories which directly affect Ducati, as it happens. Because unlike last year, where Ducati pretty much had a free run at the MotoGP championship, it looks like the other manufacturers have made a big step in competitiveness.

Not enough to make betting on anyone other than Ducati winning the championship look extremely foolhardy. But enough to cause Ducati more than just inconvenience. MotoGP in 2025 does not look like being a one-horse race any longer.

Stepping up

It may sound strange, but Aprilia has come out of testing quite well, despite Jorge Martin injuring himself in the first couple of hours of the Sepang test. The bike is a big step forward, which I'll come to later. But the bigger step has been for Marco Bezzecchi, who has really grown in his role as factory rider in Martin's absence.

Jorge Martin's crash in the first hour of the Sepang MotoGP test has caused tension between Aprilia and the official tire supplier Michelin. Martin suffered a huge highside in the first hour of the test, when his rear tire let go in Turn 2 and flicked him over the bike. He landed very heavily, fracturing a metacarpal bone in his right hand and three metatarsal bones in his left foot.

Martin has since had surgery to fix the metatarsal with a screw, and is set to miss the final preseason test at Buriram. He hopes to be fit for the opening round of MotoGP at Buriram to be held from February 28th to March 2nd. But that means he will start the 2025 MotoGP season and attempt to defend his title with just 13 laps under his belt so far this year, and having played almost no role in developing the 2025 Aprilia RS-GP he will be riding this season.

On the Wednesday evening, Aprilia CEO Massimo Rivola came into the media center to explain to journalists what Aprilia believed had happened. Though he did not accuse Michelin directly, he left little room for any other conclusions. "It was a bad crash for no reason, with no mistake on his side and no mistake on the bike’s side," Rivola said. Nor was it a cold tire. "The tires were in the right temperature and the right pressure. But we have no explanation in fact."

Out early