At the Sepang International Circuit on Sunday, Pecco Bagnaia won the battle and Jorge Martin won the war. When the race restarted after the horrific crash between Turns 1 and 2, which miraculously saw everyone walk away relatively unharmed, Bagnaia and Martin unleashed three of the most ferocious laps we have seen in MotoGP this year. The reigning champion came out of that battle on top, and went on to win the race. But Jorge Martin finished second and took enough points to be able to clinch the title on Saturday in Barcelona.
You might say that with a 37 points still on the table, and Martin's lead a mere 24 points, that the championship is far from settled. If Pecco Bagnaia can get some riders in between himself and Jorge Martin on both Saturday and Sunday, then he might be able to claw back enough points to win the title. That is correct in theory, but the Malaysian GP demonstrated why that is more of an idle hope. While Pecco Bagnaia had the measure of Martin on Sunday, the pair of them are so much faster than the rest of the field that there is nobody there for Bagnaia to put between himself and Martin.
Consider this: In the second half of the season, since Silverstone, Jorge Martin has been on the podium 17 times out of 20 races, between sprints and GPs. And when he has finished on the podium, he has finished either first or second. So the most likely scenario for Pecco Bagnaia if he manages to win both on Saturday and Sunday is that he will gain 8 points.
Sunday was the same. While Bagnaia and Martin were involved in a battle for the ages (albeit for just 3 laps), Marc Márquez was able to do nothing more than watch. "Today in the race, I was a VIP spectator for that nice battle! I enjoyed it a lot," the Gresini Ducati rider said. "But at the same time, I didn't understand because they were battling, but the lap times were super fast."
With that battle unfolding before him, had he considered getting involved? "No, they were just faster than me. Sometimes you are there behind somebody and you say from the TV ‘why don’t you overtake? Why don’t you join the battle?’ But today, even if I tried to be in that battle, they were faster than me and it was not possible in terms of speed of riding." Marc Márquez has been the best of the rest, especially since he got his head around riding a Ducati in the second half of the season. But even he can't match the level that Bagnaia and Martin have pushed each other to.
In the final race of 2013, Márquez' rookie season and the year of his first MotoGP title, Jorge Lorenzo came to the final round in Valencia trailing Márquez by 13 points. The then factory Yamaha rider tried to slow the pace up at the front, to try to get some riders in between himself and Márquez. He only managed to interpose Márquez' Repsol Honda teammate Dani Pedrosa between the two of them, Lorenzo losing out to Márquez by just 4 points, 334 to 330.
Could Bagnaia try to do the same, Márquez was asked? "The problem is that the difference between Pecco, Martin and the others was huge," the Gresini Ducati rider replied. "I mean, if you see, Bastianini finished 10 seconds behind Pecco. So slow down the race 2 or 3 seconds, OK. But slowing down the race 10 seconds is impossible."
Comments
Sweet notes
Thanks very much Kropotkin, awesome recap as usual.
Yes the narrative isn't quite what you scribes would produce. Luigi flipped the script.
Jorge Martin's story is a real "Hero's journey".
I'll get back to youse later.
Pecco's has won more sprints…
Pecco's has won more sprints this year than he did last year. Eight DNFs...no more needs saying. He has had enough pace on Saturday and Sunday. He can improve his already impressive Saturday pace all he likes but it will not help him any if he can't finish the races. If he had slightly less Saturday pace but finished more, he would be in a better position. On Saturdays, he has lost more points on the floor than he has gained being faster than Jorge. His pace has been fine all year. He's just not made enough points with it. I think, looking at the points, looking back, ignoring the reasons why the points are as they are because 'it's something strange', then yes...if only he can improve his sprint pace everything will be fine.
Good one David.
Good one David.
Departures 2024
While the sprint crash at T9 may have dealt the final blow to his title hopes, I agree that the damage to PB was done beforehand. Points gap coming into Sepang weekend all but required him to win the remaining 4 races of the season, less than likely given his tendency towards groggy Friday and the strength of JM in the Saturday sprints.
Prefer PB to retain his title, given that he still seems underappreciated as a rider - but it would be a real shame if JM doesn't get rewarded for his efforts this season (especially as similar results are far from guaranteed in future at Aprilia). Heard elsewhere that, by the standards of past seasons (~20 starts, against the 40 we have now), both of JM, PB have already done enough+ to warrant the title of WC. I concur. Call JM the King of the Speed, while PB takes the Sundays Prize, maybe ...
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Only one of these two will ultimately make the record books though and assuming JM ultimately seals the deal, what stands out more than the debate about JM v. PB is the feeling that this would represent something of an own goal for Ducati (and not just because of that "#1" plate).
(It's not as though Aprilia could take credit for winning the "#1" in 2024. True benefit to Aprilia lies more in the fact that it would deprive Ducati of plate's promotional value - for 1 year, at least.)
MM93 not withstanding, DC will lose arguably its fastest rider and forfeits any chance for him to win *more* titles for the Bologna factory in near future. Discussed at length here / earlier, but I still don't see the logic in choices the factory made regarding riders for 2025 and beyond. Bears repeating: DC could have simply shifted JM into the factory slot, allocated a GP25 for MM at Gresini and let Pramac go. Sure, they might have been short a spot for FM21 in that event, but Bezzecchi and Bastiannini were likely out anyway. In rejecting the simple compromise for a more complicated one, DC converted Martin's speed from an asset into the embarassment it faces now - and in the end, still lost Pramac!
"I chased two hares, but caught none ..."
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OK, still have one race weekend to go and a 24-point lead is not a guarantee - but some changes for 2025 are certain. JM, MB head to Noale, KTM takes EB from DC. Liberty assumes control and we've been promised a re-branding of the series, going forward.
Thing I face with most trepidation though is the departure of Simon Crafar, as he leaves commentary at end of month for a spot on stewards' panel. Value he adds (at least to the English-language broadcast) is inestimable, hard to see where a replacement would bring the same combination of experience + technical acumen + down-to-earth enthusiasm for next season(s). Likely that most astute readers here interpreted Sunday's "most ferocious laps" as a tussle for fresh air, given that front-tire temperature has been critical factor in MotoGP last few years, now. However, who but Simon could have recognized (in the moment) that the contrast of styles shown by PB, JM in that battle was the product of their respective (front) tire choices, with PB (soft) emphasizing edge grip over Martin's medium? Without his explanation, I would have missed this entirely - and this is just one of numerous insights SC provides each weekend that enhance my appreciation. Soon, they're going away. Will we appreciate what we had?
Said it before, but I'll say again: without SC (or someone of his rank) as "interpreter" for us folks at home, certainly FP (but maybe even the races) is just bikes circulating aimlessly. Who will sign up to watch that?
Don't take my word for it, Liberty. Ask Keanu Reeves ...
Even if it was but for a…
Even if it was but for a fleeting few laps at the end of the season, it was nice we got at least ONE slugfest between the two top riders. We were about to go a full season without seeing that which is a crazy thing to think about.