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Why Did Pecco Bagnaia Lose The 2024 MotoGP Crown?

By David Emmett |

Motorcycle racing is relatively simple to understand as a sport. The rider that crosses the line first wins the race. Riders score points for their finishing positions, and the rider with the most points at the end of the season is crowned champion. Sure, there's plenty of detail crammed in the spaces between those statements, but at the end, it's pretty straightforward.

So the reason Jorge Martin won the 2024 championship ahead of Pecco Bagnaia is also very simple to understand. Martin did a better job over the course of 20 race weekends, scored more points, and earned the right to call himself champion. Jorge Martin is absolutely a deserving MotoGP champion.

But as much as Martin won the championship, Pecco Bagnaia lost it. Because of the curious and deficient way Dorna maintain their statistics (you can't ignore the existence of sprint races forever), the official season statistics PDF makes it look like Bagnaia should have won the championship. Bagnaia had 11 GP wins, and 5 more podiums. By comparison, Martin has 3 GP wins and 13 podiums.

If you ignore the official statistics and make your own combined list of GP and sprint race results, Bagnaia's position looks even stronger. 11 GP wins, plus 7 sprint race wins on Saturday vs 3 GP wins and 7 sprint wins for Martin. And yet Martin beat Bagnaia by 10 points over the season.

How? There are three related factors that help explain how Martin won. Firstly, if you split the points out by those scored on Saturday vs Sunday, Bagnaia's 11 Sunday wins see him outscore Martin by 33 points, but Martin's stronger Saturday performances mean he scored 43 points more on Saturday than Bagnaia.

That may not seem much, but Martin's 43-point advantage represents nearly 18% of the points available on Saturday. Bagnaia's 10-point Sunday advantage represents 6.6% of the possible maximum. In other words, Martin crushed Bagnaia on Saturdays, enough to overcome the loss he was suffering on Sunday.

20
2024
MotoGP
Barcelona, Catalunya, Spain
Ducati
Francesco Bagnaia
Jorge Martin
CormacGP
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Comments

Yes, you did try to address it in the article, but I still don't like how much focus has been put on Bagnaia's role in the incident at Aragon. 

Every time I see discussions about it, the incident is almost treated as if it was the expected consequence of Bagnaia trying such a move, while in reality the move was almost free of risk assuming that Alex wouldn't race him in the desperate way he did.

Considering that and Bastianini repeatedly dancing on the edge while fighting Jorge, I wonder if some riders should be reminded of how they are supposed to race against a title hopeful, or if perhaps that's an outdated view of things and in today's MotoGP it's the latter's responsibility to back off when they're overwhelmingly the ones with more to lose.

E: That being said, I think we're missing the forest for the trees and the main reason Bagnaia lost the title was his customary shaky start of the year. Strong of a 35ish points lead going into Jerez, Jorge almost always was in the position to risk less and bide his time. Pecco's superiority in Europe and a couple of Jorge's own missteps got him back in the game, but my feeling always was that if Jorge could hold tight until his own "stronghold" of fly away races was reached the championship would be his to lose.

All overtakes -especially the ones around the outside- ate built on the assumption that the other rider will accept being passed rather than risk sending both riders into the runoffs. I still don't think Pecco asked too much of Alex Marquez there.

Anyway, for whatever reason, everyone who answered this thinks that I'm suggesting that title contenders should be given a free pass all the time which simply isn't the case. All I did is observe that some episodes have set the standard that a midfielder should leverage their position of lesser risk against a title hopeful and it's on the latter to not trust them at all, and ask if this is what we want to happen.

It’s all about situational awareness. Whatever Alex’s motivation, he was NOT battling for the win, and let’s be honest, no-one remembers 2nd or 3rd step on the podium. So he wasn’t racing to put his name in the record books in any meaningful way…. BUT he has one of the leading championship contenders steaming up behind, gobbling him up at a rate of knots….but still chose to try and tough out his own complete balls up. And all of a sudden he IS memorable, for all the wrong reasons.

Just a complete lack of situational awareness. When someone makes up 0.4s/lap, you’ve just made a BIG mistake, it’s only going to end one of 2 ways: they pass and piss off into the distance or you do something dumb trying to defend and take both of you down.

Pecco’s situational awareness? ANY real racer, seeing that sort of cock up, would have gone for it, Martin, Bastianini, Alex himself, and ESPECIALLY Marc. It was the sort of mistake you PRAY for when racing….how big a welcome mat do you need to be rolled out? But it’s done and dusted, it is what it is.

On a complete tangent: it’s a funny old racing world when you need to push to be safe.

Eh? 

People talk about Martin playing it safe but it was actually Pecco playing it safer that cruelled his chances. Pecco wasn’t crashing from taking it to the ragged edge, he was crashing when he RETREATED from that danger zone, which inadvertently creates another: dial it back just a smidge, the front is unloaded just the tiniest fraction longer or earlier and down you go.

It’s all very well for those fractionally slower, this is basically business as usual…for Pecco/Martin, used to operating in a different zone, the zone where they create the 0.2/0.3sec buffer at the top of the time sheets, this is uncharted territory. 

It’s a paradox where Martin, mostly acknowledged as the guy with more outright pace, was comprehensively outpaced…but still won. Why?

My feeling is he understood the tyres like nobody else. From the very earliest days of 2024 he picked up on the new rear tyre chatter issues before anyone else, which meant they resolved the issue earlier. And I’m thinking he innately understood the rear pushing the front better than anyone else. It’s not a data thing, it’s a FEEL thing, and he felt/understood it just a smidge better than anybody else.
 

 

It is, as was and remains a race. Eight rounds remained after Aragon. It was a race incident. I don't blame either rider. They were racing. We all cheer when riders, regardless of their pace or points position, battle like that and don't crash. I think we should accept that sometimes it doesn't work out.

for 2 reasons. 1 being kind of obvious- nobody should be crashing into anyone or ruining their race, contender or not. Marc has earned a reputation of recklessness for this during his domination at Honda. People rightfully shook their heads at Pecco getting into avoidable and pointless conflict on the track.

And 2 being a contender doesn't mean the rest of the grid has to roll out the red carpet for you to get back to your rightful place in a race. Every position has to be earned. Think back to 2016 when there were 9 different winners. That wouldn't be possible if everyone just laid down for Marc and Dovi (I think Dovi was competitive by then). IMO that "rule" was just one of Rossi's many silly mind games that ended with his retirement. MotoGP riders grid up to get the best results possible regardless of who's leading the championship or whatever.

Riders can get a nice cash bonus for a podium finish too. I have no idea but maybe they get more money for finishing top 5 or top 10 etc. Last round I can understand, more care taken, but even then it get complicated. Rider A must win with rider B finishing lower than 3rd...is it ok that no other rider attempts to pass or defend from rider B ? Of course it's not ok. 

Jorge would have more points and an extra win from Misano because Enea cannot race ? Madness. That was two race after Aragon, one of the eight rounds after Aragon. Way too early to even think about playing nice. 

I think Bagnaia himself accepts that he got it wrong in Aragon. By that point in the race, he was three or four tenths a lap quicker. If he had waited, he would have breezed by out of 15 and down the back straight. Alex Marquez went wide and left the door wide open, but there was always the risk of Marquez coming back on track for Bagnaia. Even though Marquez clearly played a major part in the collision, Bagnaia had nothing to gain by not being cautious at that point of the track. And as you point out, he had the most to lose.

I remember thinking early in the year as Jorge was just banking podiums while Pecco was up and down that this would (hopefully) put him in a much stronger position to win the championship. He showed very early on that he was willing to settle for 2nd but stay upright.

So for that reason I think we need to take Jorge's win total with a grain of salt. No doubt he could have won more if he really wanted to risk it, but he was determined NOT to risk it and not to throw away good championship points for crashing out of high positions. This was evident from the start of the season and buttressed his campaign at the end as he held off Pecco's late charge. He really did have the speed to win the title without taking unnecessary risks, and he did it.

If this year's championship was merely down to who made fewer mistakes, Jorge EARNED it more than Pecco lost it. He had a plan, he stuck to it, he maximized his point potential with the only exception being Misano in the wet, and even riding under control was more than enough to beat the guy who won 11 GPs and 7 sprints. A masterpiece of championship strategy, execution, and patience (and speed!).

I more or less think the same, and thought the same at the end of last year too when Pecco was the one in the driver's seat collecting points and Jorge was the one going all out to make things happen now. 

Like in a high level game of chess, an edge that looks tiny to the casual viewer and liable to be lost in the ebbs and flows of things can be all it takes to bring a win home and the methodical game of position is no less of an expression of mastery than the more easily "consumable" tactical skirmishes.

May Aprilia make Jorge a bike worth of his talent, so that we can have a tiebreaker. Unless Marc just up and smokes everyone, of course.

 

Not only in this year's championship but in some others there have been efforts to second guess the 'worthiness' of the title winner. As others have noted, this seems particularly the case in some other MotoGP coverage (though not in this esteemed Motomatters coverage of course). This does remind me of the Monty Python dead parrot sketch, only it's not really funny. Martin is the champion. He had the most points. He strategised and executed his season brilliantly. 

My only other thoughts are that if Pecco stopped creating X Files narratives about his mishaps and concentrating on the best result in any given Sprint or Race then, I dunno, but maybe he crashes on fewer occasions. And good luck with the other bloke in the box too.

Thanks. It annoys me too when clearly Jorge beat Pecco at his own game. And it was no accident!

Another way to think of it would be to reverse the roles… imagine if Pecco had won the championship by riding within himself, staying patient and avoiding dogfights or brain farts, but instead Jorge had been faster and racked up impressive pole positions and win totals but lost the championship for carelessness and overconfidence.

The narrative would be what a brilliant tactician Pecco was while Jorge clearly had better speed but lacked the maturity to wage a championship campaign from start to finish. 

Well that’s exactly what happened, only the opposite!  Give the man his due!

But I don’t subscribe to the “carelessness” or “overconfidence” assumption.

Pecco was being very smart in dialling it back, thinking with his big head rather than his little head…but there is a hidden danger in (fractionally) slowing down from class leading pace: the actions that create that pace don’t translate to riding slower, not with the current disparity between front and rear tyres.

The crap (due more to Team rather than Michelin inaction) front tyre does not suffer being unloaded. The folks riding around 0.3-0.5sec off pole are used to riding in this zone, it’s basically where they live. Pecco and Martin? Not so much. They live in a different zone where they extract every fraction of a second out of that front. The trouble comes when they (and especially Pecco) try to step back into mere mortal from superhuman territory, and it’s a foreign land. Pecco crashed by NOT pushing.

Martin didn’t win because he was the fastest guy on track, Pecco comprehensively beat him on that score, no, Martin won because he understood the tyres better than anyone.

Even more of an argument for Jorge winning it over Pecco losing it. He understood the limit better and managed it over a very long season.

I still think Jorge could have won more races if he needed to. And don’t forget the middle of the season when he and Pecco were trading blows… it’s not like Jorge dominated all year and just held on. He held his nerve despite falling behind at times and still pulled it out.

perhaps it would be a better study if all the results were taken up to Malaysia?  From the sprint race onwards, JM was a different man. He was a shoe in so the stats mean little.  

JM will be forgotten superquick but deserves better, the narrative is to keep talking about Pecco.  MCN last week Oxley ignored JM completely, MS said the best man won - NOT, McPint backtracked to him.  

First Independant team win and it means nothing.  

Not looking forward to my Motocourse this year.  I reckon Scotty will give MM number one then David Alonso and JM might even come after Pecco!  

None of the TNT crew could specifically say what JM had done well, just that Pecco had crashed a lot.  In Pecco's defence, Alex Marquez caused that accident and it did have a bearing on the outcome but if DNFs have a higher or lower value, what about going in the pits after a spit of rain?  Low value or what!  

Rock on 2025, MM and PB versus JM.  Hopefully Jorge's already been written off, it'll just make it sweeter if he can top 3 it come the end of the season.  

Why is everybody counting sprint races out? They are part of MotoGP now. Period!

You rememer in old days they had 2 championships per year, for the same amount of races that ware later neaded for one MotoGP crown? So format changed. So what?

I think this was also last year Pecco could be champion. MM is nasty and hungry.

I like sprint races more then long ones! 

To much tire stuff going on long races not to mention tire pressures etc. Not so much racing as saving tires. 

Sprint races...the faster one wins! As it should be.

I hope MotoGP will not end as the most boring  motosport on the planet today..F1.

I am old guy and was watching F1 going from awesome to junk.

I would watch sprint race on both days no problem. It is great!

I also enjoy the Sprints and like the fact that it’s basically flat out racing from start to finish. My only frustration is that there’s no motivation for anyone outside of the first 9 positions to race for points. I’d’ like it if on Saturdays they used the current Sunday point scoring system to encourage more of the grid to keep racing for points, and if Dorna needs to hang on to the idea that Sundays race is more important, then they can simply double the points for the Sunday positions. The same riders will end up at the top of the lead ladder but this will add depth and make the midfield more interesting . . . . especially if they ever start to show more of that part of the races on the TV.

DORNA could change the points system to reflect the new racing conditions of Sprint and Race. The Sprints points were just tacked on without much thought (gee, surprise, surprise) and appear to reward consistency rather than winning. If the winningest rider is not the champion, bells should ring. Historically, there are several alternative point systems. None would be appropiate to the current situation but show that change has happened and, really, should happen again.

Also, if people want to see more emphasis on striving (& risking more)  to win races rather than "backing off slightly" to continuously collect points, then make the points gap between 1st & 2nd greater.

If the winningest rider loses because of a string of top five finishes then yes but that rider lost this time to eight non finishes. He lost by ten points. Eight 6th places would give him an extra 80 points and it was all wrapped up with a couple of rounds to spare.

Pecco would not win so many times without extra risk. So it is sort of " pin it or bin it" mentality.

There is no real solution for this. If you change point system for 1st place the riders will risk way more. We have enough crashes as it is.

Remember how lucky Pecco was when roled by his own bike?

And to be honest there is old rule about racing: " to win you have to finish". I really do not want the guy that crashes 50% of the races to be champion just coz he won other 50%.

Risk vs reward is just fine in motoGP at the moment in my opinion.

I’m a fan of the current system and I think it works well, albeit the strange business of not counting Sprints as races. I am in awe of the analytical minds now required to be a top level MotoGP rider combined with the ability to put the analysis into practice while riding the bike.

Quite frankly, Pecco was 'aggressive' when he didn't need to be and he ended up on the ground. The crash with Marc was his ego getting the better of him and pushing the envelope. He was NOT going to let his new team mate, on last years bike, beat him! Pecco...you're NOT racing Marc! THINK! His crash with Alex was pushing in a location that he did NOT need to. Wait for the straight, draft past and disappear in the distance. 

Anyway, that's my take on it.

 

I concur on the first half, Pecco could've easily avoided the run in with Marc; he was slower and would've very likely lost the position anyway.

However, I (still) don't get why he's given all the agency in the Aragon incident and AM is given none.

Peter Bom (data analyst, Oxley Bom Podcast) explained it really well.

If you don’t go for it (from either side) your opponent and EVERY competitor watching on replay knows there is a chance you will cave: so you ABSOLUTELY MUST go for the opening.

I mean, you’re coming into the last corner (insert track of choice), battling for the win, do you really want the other guy knowing you backed out of a move in the race before? Strategic or not, don’t you want him knowing you’d rather crash than cave? 

Something I don't see mentioned is that when you're hanging off a bike you can't see the other side. Remember that crash with Dani P., Jorge L., and, I think?, Valentino? That was directly attributable to lack of 360° vision. And, Pecco basically said afterwards, after the crash with Alex, (to paraphrase) "He knew I was faster, he should have gotten out of the way." Which, in my book, is a very arrogant thing to say. 

26 podiums Pecco vs 32 podiums Martin. Not so huge. 

Eight DNF Pecco 10 points behind. Or, six 15th and two 14th place finishes (9th/8th in sprint points). 

He must be kicking himself.

Pierer AG has just protected itself from 3 specific loan's that could be claimed before the end (so they could have been forced to pay them back before they ended). Now in this "specific situation", they are protected from this possibility. that's all.

So...Houseworth is Yoko. Leaving you to Paul/John/Rossi/Stoner isms. Ringo is Dorna, esp the Chamionship Electronics coup bringing us into a glory era via CRTs. Best of which is the RSVR derived Aprilia. Ringo, with help from friends.

Ok, live last month in Argentina. Paul is much older than Jeremy McWilliams! Still got it? (Full concert, watch 1/3rd loud - these tracks via guide above your clicker thingy bar).

Can't Buy Me Love (young men are inherently alone)

Drive My Car (imposter syndrome)

Got To Get You Into My Life (love song to cannabis)

Let Me Roll It (a joint amongst friends, again)

Getting Better (music therapy for a first struggling band)

Maybe I'm Amazed (go ahead and cry, Linda was THAT warm)

I've just seen a face (favorite of mine, same reason for the 675R never to sell)

Blackbird (just spirit, and he miffs guitar just like the rest of us. For she who was relegated to the back of the bus)

Jet (horse was the first motorbike)

Something (cry if you want, George is right there too)

Band On The Run (if we ever get out of here, said George in a dissolution of Apple meeting, Paul did vocals, bass, rhythm guitar, drums and shakers etc in Lagos. A band on the run)

Don't you just have to watch the rest now?! Damn.

https://youtu.be/3TyfV0GT7OQ?si=FYFHAGmxEm9eFkB-

Late to the party here so I can say any stupid thing while knowing that no one will ever read my comments!

Alex vs. Pecco: yeah, racing incident, but I think in these situations you really can't torch a rider for a single incident. My opinion is that AM was the guilty party (although maybe only 60/40), but honestly we have to look at a pattern rather than a single moment of red mist. I've added this incident to my AM tally but, unlike his brother, he has not yet reached bash-everyone-out-of-the-way level.

Pecco vs. Jorge: Jorge is a worthy champion! I was rooting for PB but JM beat him fairly. Martin is just sooo fast! When will his helmet finally scrape the pavement in a turn? Elbows are so yesterday. However, when we are all commenting here 365 days from now I believe this year's results will be a footnote to Bagnaia's three championships in four years. MM is getting old, Aprilia is good but not great, and no one else is fast enough. (however, I did finish very near the bottom of our predictions in 2024, so get out those grains of salt!)

'Shrink, I'm working on a Jerry Bob Phil Billy Keith version of your Fab 4 parable. Thanks for being out there.

^ St Steve, hiya! Still reading. I'm glad Martin got one, esp w an Independent Team. Pecco has become fast as hell in the most slow starting and gradual rise of any rider I can remember. Enjoyed 2nd to last Round battle a bunch, and am curious if Pecco hasn't gotten better than he gets credit for. The Ducati Cup and riders like Marc or Acosta not being on competitive bikes or healthy may have skewed opinion down a notch? He is really good! 

But Martin beat him. There really isn't much between them yeah? Close! I don't think I ever question if a Champion "deserves it" per se. More noticing how they got it. Things are complex, but not a good old points tally. I do rate years and riders, and this wasn't a particular favorite. Lots to love though...Martin's personal growth was BIG and unlikely. He and Pecco getting along well was a treat. The 2024 Duc being so big a step in performance was not. Marc back to smiling and winning was cool as heck. Etc. 

Looking fwd to what is in store for us!

Just watched some live Dead recently w headphones I promised my neighbors. I like focusing on Bob and Phil. Plus replicating a touch of Jerry's playing style to get a taste, compelling soaring jams! Cheers over there...

Wavey, you scoundrel! Pecco retires from Ducati to be an EPIC Alien Test rider.

:)

Pecco has always had the better of his factory Ducati team mates. Miller had him in his first two seasons at Pramac but that was a rookie season + a season with a bad injury. Since stepping into the factory team he's owned the other side of the garage. Not every race, Jack and Enea both capable of beating him on their day but overall, dominant. Now, 2025.....

Can still be good mutterances. I think at the end of this piece the admiration and respect for PB is really clear. What I find a little surprising though is that some are thinking he can match MM next year. I think that a year's adaptation to the long and low Duc, plus his performance on the GP23, suggests, well to me that MM has to be favorite. Additionally any race when it's close I don't expect Marc will do Pecco any favours at all. I still remember his performance at the race if champions during Ducati week this year - it was vintage ruthless MM.

As for the sports psychologist (I assume...) who worked with Martin - well they certainly deserve praise. Martin's composure this year was so much better and it also led him to presenting a far friendlier face to the media and fans. His attitude, and even his language reminded me very much of those athletes who have worked with Martin Crowe (mojocrowe.com), who has worked with Ash Barty and Stephanie Gilmour et al - worth checking out if this domain is of interest.

I freely admit that wishful thinking almost always colors my motogp predictions. And I admit I just cannot find it in myself to root for Marquez. However, PB has shown over the last four years that he continues to learn and grow, and in my mind he should be the favorite for 2025. If Jorge had joined the factory Ducati team, well, I just don't know who I would lean towards for the championship.

For the sake of racing action I do hope the Aprilia will be better than I predict. Then we'll have Martin, the two sides of the factory Ducati garage, and one contender who will suddenly appear to challenge those three (Acosta? DiGi? a rookie?).