MotoMatters.com | Kropotkin Thinks

Normally at this point you would be reading a preview of the upcoming weekend's MotoGP round, an analysis of the track, a look at the strengths and weaknesses of key riders at the circuit, and what to watch out for. But the events in the east of Spain have cast a pall over this weekend, putting into perspective that as entertaining as MotoGP is, it is entirely trivial in the grand scheme of things.

All eyes are on Valencia in the MotoGP paddock. As the death toll from the severe storm that lashed the region west of the city continues to rise - the current figure stands at 155 in the region, plus 3 more in other parts of Spain - minds in the paddock are more on Spain than in Sepang.

Not just because MotoGP is due to hold a race at the Circuit Ricardo Tormo in Cheste in one of the parts severely affected by the storm. But also because there is a sizable contingent in the paddock who have either direct or indirect links with the Valencia region. Some live there, but a lot have friends and family there.

A matter of respect

So you can understand why no one is eager to head to Valencia in a little over two weeks' time for the final round of the 2024 MotoGP season. "I think that Valencia will be difficult, because even if the track is solved and everything is good, it's a difficult situation just for respect for the people over there," Jorge Martin said in the pre-event press conference, where both Martin and Pecco Bagnaia made a point of first addressing the disaster in Valencia. "Also in terms of logistics, I don't know how the track is exactly, so maybe we can't have a full crowd."

Pecco Bagnaia echoed those sentiments. "The most difficult thing for me is the ethical side. Because honestly, racing there, it's like a party, it's like a moment to enjoy, and knowing the situation right now is what it is it's not correct. And we were always super respectful about what is happening around the world, we are living everybody under the same sky, so it would be wrong to race there. And in any case, if it was my choice, I would prefer to don't race there."

Racing in Valencia was the last thing in people's minds. "Really devastating news," Alex Rins said. "I don't know what is going to happen, but for sure the priority is all the families and all the houses. They need to be the priority. More than racing, more than repairing the road to arrive to the circuit." The access road to the circuit and a very large part of the car parking area has been completely destroyed, along with the kart track where the FIM MiniGP championship final was due to be held.

Hitting home

Marc Márquez spoke for a lot of the Spanish riders, and Spaniards who work in MotoGP. "The DANA has hit a lot Spain and especially that Valencia zone. As a Spanish person, it is super-difficult to see these kinds of images and think that theoretically we would have a GP there. I think all the resources of the government, of Spain need to go for those people who have lost their homes or will lose more. I see the damage to the circuit of Valencia, but there is no need to start to repair those things when there are many people without homes," the Gresini rider said.

(As an aside, DANA is the Spanish acronym for the phenomenon, and not, as I also first thought, the name of the storm. Reader and expert trackday rider Len Padilla pointed out to me that DANA stands for Depresión Aislada en Niveles Altos, or high-altitude isolated depression. It is formed when cold air passes over the warm water of the Mediterranean and then stalls over one location, dumping a massive amount of rain in one region. Sea temperatures around the world are at record highs, amplifying the impact of these storms.)

Italian riders felt much sympathy for the Spaniards, having been through similar issues in the past couple of years in the Emilia-Romagna region, though not quite as severe or deadly as this DANA over Valencia. "It is something that we lived first person with Emilia-Romagna, both this year and last year, so it is something I know very well, and for the families there," Luca Marini said.

"It's a difficult question. Because that situation also happened to my town, and it's not easy for people to be positive in that moment," Enea Bastianini said. "I don't know what is the best solution for everybody, and probably in the next days we will have the situation more clear. But I want to support the people, because I know the situation."

What next?

So what happens next? As of this moment, nobody knows. The emergency is still ongoing, and the emergency services have barely begun to take stock of the damage. The next step will be an assessment made between the circuit, local authorities, and Dorna as to whether the round can go ahead or not. That is likely to be a rather binary decision. If the damage to the region is severe enough for the race to be delayed, then it is likely to take more than a week or two to get the facilities and resources in place to be able to run an event the scale of Valencia.

The past two seasons saw over 92,000 fans attend the Valencia race on Sunday, and in 2023, there were 85,000 on Saturday. The infrastructure to support that size of crowd, and the number of police and volunteers to manage traffic, crowds, and the rest are very unlikely to be available.

The official word from Dorna is that the event will remain on the same date until further notice. Speaking to Mela Chercoles of AS.com, Carmelo Ezpeleta said that the track itself had not been damaged, but that there was serious damage to the access road and external facilities. But he also said that the focus of attention should be on helping those affected, and that at the moment, the circuit was as an emergency shelter and center for help.

According to Chercoles' sources, the decision on whether the race will go ahead or not will be taken by the provincial government, the Generalitat Valenciana, and by central government in Madrid. That is who you expect to make the decision, and given the scale of the crisis they are dealing with, announcing whether or not a MotoGP round will go ahead will be some way down their list of priorities. Hundreds of people are still missing, phones and power are still out in some places, and there is vast structural damage.

Follow the process

It seems vanishingly unlikely that the race will happen in Valencia, but it is not Dorna's decision to make, and they are reliant on others to make that announcement. Events have Force Majeure elements in their insurance policies to cover situations like this, but the policyholder (in this case, Dorna and the Circuit Ricardo Tormo) can't just declare Force Majeure. The decision has to literally be taken by someone else, and they cannot make any firm declaration until they get a decision.

If MotoGP can't race at Valencia, what are the alternatives? The names being bandied about are Portimão and Qatar, but neither of those is particularly easy to make work. Getting the bikes to a track is the easy part, it's all the rest which is hard. As anyone who attempted to buy bicycle parts during the Covid-19 pandemic can tell you, logistics is everything.

The stumbling blocks to organizing a race are many and varied. Putting aside the contractual obligations (which is no small feat) Dorna needs to find an existing GP circuit which can host a MotoGP round. That means it has to have a weekend in the next few weeks where the track is not booked, and where local noise restrictions allow MotoGP bikes to run for three days. The track has to be able to drum up a quorum of marshals and volunteers to run the event, and to handle any attendees. Those criteria alone cut the possibilities down to probably just Qatar.

Rubber needed

Then comes the hard part. MotoGP needs tires to race with. With each rider allowed 10 front tires in a combination of 3 specifications, 12 rear tires in a combination of 2 different specifications, 6 front wets and 7 rear wets, Michelin needs to bring close to 1000 tires to every event. More importantly, they need to either produce those tires or to have them in stock. Michelin need roughly 14 days to produce one race weekend's worth of tires.

And once they are produced, they also need to be shipped. Getting them to a track in Europe is a matter of a couple of days' drive. But to ship them to Qatar, if MotoGP is to race there, is a time-consuming business. With the Red Sea effectively closed off due to the conflict in the Middle East, and Houthi rebels in Yemen firing on freight shipping passing through the Bab al-Mandab Strait between the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, that means freight is going via the Cape of Good Hope in South Africa. That adds between 10 and 12 days to any trip between France and Qatar.

But container ships are not like buses. The number of freighters traveling directly between Europe and Qatar is limited, and freight is often transshipped using multiple vessels. All of which means it could take as much as 38 days to get a container of tires from Marseille to Doha. Michelin could choose to fly the tires, of course, but that would be exponentially more expensive. Which is why they choose to ship the tires by surface vessel to the races outside of Europe.

Have I mentioned fuel? Rinse and repeat a similar process for the specialist fuels which are used by the MotoGP teams. A KTM RC16 does not run on pump fuel, but on a specially produced mixture of hydrocarbons and other ingredients produced by Mobil-1. Oh, and there should be a post-season test after the race as well. So that's another 100 or so tires to bring, as well as fuel.

Specialized equipment

Can't they just use the tires Michelin made for Valencia? The layout of that circuit is one of the most extreme on the calendar, with a lot of lefts and only a couple of right-hand corners. The tires are extremely asymmetrical, both front and rear, with a soft right-hand side and a much harder left. Unless MotoGP goes to Phillip Island or Sachsenring, those tires aren't going to be much use.

I haven't mentioned Pirelli yet because it is my understanding that with the Moto2 and Moto3 titles settled, Dorna is likely to run a MotoGP-only event if it is not at Valencia. The additional cost of finding and booking accommodation and travel would be too much of a burden on cash-strapped Moto2 and Moto3 teams, who would probably prefer to just skip the last race and start thinking about 2025.

The simplest course of action would be for Dorna to cancel the final round of MotoGP and call it a day. It is much easier logistically to organize an official MotoGP test, or perhaps even give the factories and teams an extra day of private testing to run as they see fit.

Calendar calamities

The question is whether Dorna can afford to. The calendar this year has been disastrous in terms of cancellations and reshuffles, which has upset TV broadcasters, the bread and butter of Dorna's business model. Last year, they published a calendar with 22 rounds, but that didn't last long. The loss of Argentina was completely beyond the control of Dorna, the result of the election of a new government hell-bent on cost cutting and slashing state spending.

The other lost races were far more predictable. Dorna put a round at the Sokol International Racetrack in Kazakhstan on the calendar, despite long-standing issues at the circuit and concerns it wouldn't be ready to host a race. The race was postponed in May, from its date in mid June to an indeterminate date in the future. The postponement was ostensibly because of flooding, which was happening on the other side of the country. But there were strong suspicions it was connected to the readiness of the track.

Then there was the dispute with the Buddh International Circuit in India. Dorna canceled the race this year, due to be held in September, for non-payment of the fee for hosting the race. They then replaced India with Kazakhstan, being forced to cancel that again when it became apparent that Kazakhstan was incapable of hosting a race. There followed an unseemly scramble to find a replacement, which is how we ended up at Misano for a second race in two weeks. Even that faced problems, with flooding hitting the Emilia-Romagna region in the run up to the second Misano race.

Broadcasting bust

Dorna sold TV broadcasters a calendar with 22 races, and had to cut it back to 20 races. Speaking to people with knowledge of TV contracts, having anything less than 20 races causes problems. Despite the Valencia round being pretty much a textbook example of Force Majeure, losing a race gives TV broadcasters a third scheduling headache in a year. They will not take it well.

This doesn't bode well for 2025 either. If the problem with the 2024 calendar was that it had several dubious races on it and no margin for error, next year's calendar suffers the same problem. Argentina is on the calendar for contractual reasons, but is extremely unlikely to happen. The new Balaton Park Circuit in Hungary has been added to the calendar, but there are serious question marks over whether that will be homologated with the changes requested by the FIM in time for the race at the end of August.

Brno is also back on the calendar, but that track is one which looks very likely to happen. Even though it is subject to homologation, the resurfacing required to make it safe to race on again is already scheduled to take place.

There is also a question mark over the Mandalika International Circuit. There have been rumors and reports in the Indonesian media of financial difficulties for the organization which owns and runs the circuit, and a failure to pay the hosting fee. There has also been an election recently, with a new president installed. It is as yet unclear what that means for the tourist development project of which Mandalika is a part.

How many?

So with a provisional slate of 22 races scheduled for 2025, we can already say that one (Argentina) is almost certain to be scrapped, one faces homologation issues (Hungary), and one a problem with finances (Mandalika). There is a realistic chance that we get to May and face the prospect of a 20-race calendar, and more races in doubt. With TV broadcasters once again angry with Dorna and threatening a revolt.

That leaves no margin for unforeseen events such as Valencia. Europe has seen a succession of extreme weather events in 2024, linked to the very high surface temperatures of the Atlantic and the Mediterranean. There have been exceptionally severe rainfall with flooding and landslides all across Central and Southern Europe, including floods in the Emilia-Romagna region and now severe flooding in Valencia.

It is entirely possible that we see a repeat of at least some of that flooding or severe weather in 2025, bad enough to force another cancellation or postponement. That would cause huge problems for Dorna, and put an increasing strain on relations with TV broadcasters. Dorna can't be blamed for severe weather, but they have made a rod for their own back by packing the calendar with races with a relatively high risk of cancellation.

The lesson of the Twenties - Covid, the Evergreen freighter blocking the Suez Canal, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, conflict in the Middle East - is that logistics is the hidden lattice binding the modern world together. The world of just-in-time delivery, minimal storage, and optimized production leaves no room for the unexpected, for coping with the unforeseen. Dorna seem dead set on chasing down this path, with all the risks that entails.

They have to know

Back to Valencia, and a decision on whether the race should go ahead or not. Whatever the decision, it is imperative that Jorge Martin and Pecco Bagnaia know whether Sepang will be the final weekend of 2024 before the sprint race starts on Saturday afternoon. With 17 points separating them, the calculation is entirely different for both riders depending on whether there will be a twentieth round somewhere or if this is it.

For Bagnaia, canceling the final round would be tough. "Could be not fair, but I'm not the guy who has to decide," the Ducati Lenovo rider said. Whatever the decision, it has to come soon. "For us, the best thing would be to know right now, to know today, so then you approach the weekend in a different way," Jorge Martin said.

There was an understanding in the paddock of the enormity of the task Dorna face. When should they make a decision on the race, Luca Marini was asked. "When they find a solution," he responded. "It is quite a lot to change the last race of the season. It is not matter of finding a place because for me, finding a place is the easier thing to do. But to find a correct place then you need to check with Michelin for tires, It is not so easy. I think they are trying to find the best solution for everybody but it is a tough, tough job."

Advanced math

Finally, to Sepang, where the title could be settled this weekend, which would solve a lot of problems. If, one journalist put it to Pecco Bagnaia, he has the same weekend as he had at Le Mans, with a DNF in the sprint race and a third place in the Sunday GP, then Martin would be champion. "I think it's difficult that I will do zero and third," Bagnaia said. "And it's difficult also - not difficult, but it's unpredictable to have two wins by Jorge. So we have to live the weekend and then understand what will happen."

The arithmetic says that Pecco Bagnaia has to score at least 17 points this weekend to take the title fight to the final round. But realistically, that isn't going to be enough. "I think if we have to have a good chance for the last weekend, we have to go away from this weekend with less than 10 points of gap. So I will give my maximum," Bagnaia said.

That in itself is tough, as it means closing the gap by at least 8 points. Winning both races ahead of Martin would do that for Bagnaia, but that leaves a rider such as Enea Bastianini out of the equation. And Bastianini has his own objectives to chase.

Fresh horses

One last note. As the 19th round of a season with more than 20 races published on the provisional calendar, Sepang is the race where the teams can open their eighth engines. It means that pretty much everyone will have a fresh engine to squeeze the last performance out of before the end of the year. That will be welcome for both Pecco Bagnaia and Jorge Martin, who have seven engines already in play. But it will be welcome to everyone on the grid.

It will also be welcome for the Yamaha riders, Alex Rins and Fabio Quartararo. They will use the engines they tested at Misano this weekend. It was an engine with more power which Rins liked, and which Quartararo had to give up on due to electronics problems. It is the basis for their 2025 engine, and with a bit more top end, should make it easier to compete along the two long straights at Sepang.

Whatever happens, MotoGP faces a difficult weekend in Sepang. A weekend where the thoughts of everyone are 10,000km away, with friends and family who are suffering. But MotoGP will do what it always does: carry on, and hope that by putting on a show, putting on a race, they can keep the fans entertained, and give those who are suffering a little light relief.

If you'd like to donate to the relief effort in Valencia, this link has a range of options to do that. 

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