MotoMatters.com | Kropotkin Thinks

The summer break is over, such as it was, and MotoGP is heading to Silverstone to resume combat. And that means we are likely to see a few more announcements made over the next few days, and likely more to follow in the run up to Austria. So here is a round up of links to things to get you back up to speed with MotoGP's silly season, and who is likely to end up where.

Not that Moto2 rider

In last week's Paddock Pass Podcast, Trackhouse Racing team principal Davide Brivio spoke about a possible teammate to Raul Fernandez, whose contract had just been renewed for two more years. Brivio acknowledged that the chances of retaining Miguel Oliveira were slim, and hinted that the team could look at a Moto2 rider for the second seat.

Given that Trackhouse is an American-owned team, the natural conclusion everyone has been jumping to for the past few months is that Joe Roberts was in line for promotion to MotoGP. The American Racing rider is having his strongest season so far in Moto2, and is currently third in the championship.

That conclusion looks to be wrong, however. Motorsport.com's Oriol Puigdemont is reporting that it is the rider ahead of Roberts in the Moto2 championship who is in line for the Trackhouse seat. Ai Ogura is said to be closing in on a deal that would see the Japanese rider join Trackhouse for the 2025 season.

That is something of a surprise. Much of the MotoGP paddock had assumed that Ogura's ascension to MotoGP would come through the LCR Honda team, replacing Takaaki Nakagami. The LCR Honda Idemitsu side of the garage is funded by the Japanese oil company, who are keen to have a Japanese rider on the bike, or else another rider from Southeast Asia.

But it appears that Ogura has seen the hole Honda find themselves in and decided that was not where he wanted to be. Being offered an Aprilia seat, aboard a bike that is clearly much more competitive and easier to ride, is a much more attractive option.

Ogura taking the Trackhouse Racing seat leaves several other riders out in the cold. Joe Roberts, who paddock rumor suggests had a sponsor ready to bring to Trackhouse, is left to hope for a shot at the second Pramac seat, or else find the most competitive seat he can in Moto2. And Trackhouse was one of Jack Miller's last chances to stay in MotoGP.

Switching paddocks

If Miller is forced out of MotoGP - and that is looking increasingly likely, as the seats begin to fill - then his most likely landing spot is WorldSBK. Alvaro Bautista's future with Ducati is looking ever more tenuous as he continues to lose out, not just to BMW new boy Toprak Razgatlioglu, but also to his teammate Nicolo Bulega.

According to Motorsport.com's German Garcia Casanova, Bautista's poor performance and Bulega's improvement have caused Ducati to change the balance of salary inside the Aruba.it WorldSBK team. Instead of Bautista picking up the lion's share of the reportedly €1 million in salary to be split between the two riders, it is Bulega whose salary has been upped. Ducati have slashed the offer being made to Bautista - rumor has it to less than half his current wage - giving the double world champion the choice of taking a pay cut or retiring.

With Bautista pondering Borgo Panigale's paltry offering, Ducati have reported also made an offer to Jack Miller. The Australian has already ridden a factory Ducati in MotoGP, so the factory knows exactly what he can do for them, and how he would fit in a team. And it could be an attractive proposition for Miller, despite being forced to take a major pay cut. With a young family and nearly half the number of events, Miller would get more time to spend at home in Australia.

No room at the inn

The reason Miller is being forced to consider switching paddocks is because the MotoGP grid is looking close to filling up. Though only 14 of the 22 seats have been officially filled, 7 of the other 8 look to be pretty much wrapped up.

There is only one factory seat as yet unclaimed, but it looks like Alex Rins will retain his seat at the Monster Energy Yamaha team, with rumors of retirement fading. Ogura's move to Trackhouse to partner Raul Fernandez would leave Nakagami at LCR alongside Johann Zarco. Fabio Di Giannantonio is certain to retain his seat at the VR46 Ducati squad, with Franco Morbidelli likely to join him. That would put Fermin Aldeguer, who has a contract directly with Ducati, in the same Gresini Ducati garage as Alex Marquez.

The real question marks hang over the Pramac Yamaha squad. Miguel Oliveira looks set to take one of the seats, championed by 2021 world champion Fabio Quartararo. But the second seat is still open. Current Moto2 leader Sergio Garcia is the name most often linked with the Pramac Yamaha ride, but rumor is that Joe Roberts is also in with a shot there. But until a name is announced, we will not know for sure.

KTM's retreat

The switch from GASGAS to KTM for the Tech3 squad is the harbinger of greater changes inside the Pierer Mobility Group, it seems. With financial results falling behind expectations, the Austrian manufacturer is pushing through a restructuring and downsizing of its racing operation.

According to Austrian journalistic legend Günther Wiesinger, writing for GPOne.com, PMG is cutting the number of brands it will be racing in 2025, in both MotoGP and MXGP. The holding company is to focus its efforts on the KTM brand going forward in both its circuit and offroad racing activities.

That means that IntactGP is to lose its Husqvarna branding and sponsorship in Moto2, with the team left to look for another backer. The Liqui Moly Moto3 team, currently fielding Collin Veijer and Tatsuki Suzuki, will switch to use KTM branded bikes for next season.

CFMOTO is to stay on the grid next year, with the Aspar team running bikes with the branding of the Chinese manufacturer, in which the Pierer Mobility Group has a stake.

KTM is also due to cut back the number of factory-backed bikes it will field in Moto2 next year, leaving only Aki Ajo's team with KTM factory branding.

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