MotoMatters.com | Kropotkin Thinks

Phillip Island can be counted on to deliver two things: great racing, and big surprises. This weekend is no different, with the wildcards being the complex interplay between the weather, the new asphalt, and the tires. The new surface is going to be both fast and very hard on rear tires. Michelin have three rear tires to choose from: a soft rear with the normal construction, and a medium and a hard using the heat-resistant construction used at Mandalika.

At any other circuit, the soft would only be used for qualifying with the riders choosing between the medium and hard for the race. But this is Phillip Island, and the forecast is for low temperatures - highs of 15°C on Saturday and Sunday - allied with strong winds. "The harder one I don’t think we will even test," Aleix Espargaro said on Thursday.

So the task for the riders is to decide whether they think they can make the soft last race distance, or are better off using the medium. Normally, they would spend Friday working on this, especially the Friday afternoon practice session. The trouble is, it is raining in Phillip Island, and it looks set to be wet all day. Testing tires is going to be nigh on impossible.

Damp squib

"It will be very complicated first of all because of the weather," Marco Bezzecchi told reporters. "Because at least if the weather is stable, we have time to try the tires. I think tomorrow will be bad, maybe raining. But it's the same for everyone, so we will see."

One major problem is that the riders don't know how aggressive the new surface will be in terms of wear. "The track is very demanding for tires, and also with the new surface, normally the grip is better but also the wear of the tire is more. But as I said before, we have to check with the new tire allocation, and also with the weather," Bezzecchi said.

"But I think for sure it will be a race to manage. Maybe with more grip we need less tire management, or maybe more. Depends a lot on the surface. Because for example in Misano, the grip is very good and the tires don't drop too much. But for example in Aragon the grip was very good but the tire was going down a lot. So we will see. It's difficult to say before," Bezzecchi told reporters.

It is going to be difficult to say even by the end of Friday, if it keeps raining. Riders and teams will have to work out what they are going to do with tires on Saturday morning, and hope the track will have dried out by then.

Showdown, part 1

That is going to complicate the battle for the title. Jorge Martin comes to Phillip Island with just a 10 point lead over Pecco Bagnaia, but a stronger record from last year. So who will triumph when the flag falls at Valencia? Pedro Acosta, Jack Miller, and Johann Zarco were all asked in the press conference.

For Acosta and Zarco, Jorge Martin is the favorite. "I will put Jorge in the front," Acosta said. "In the end, he's the one who is leading the championship. Maybe with less numbers I see in the media yesterday than Pecco, but his consistency is much bigger than last season. I think he's in a clear advantage at the moment with these 10 points."

Zarco agreed. "I would say also Jorge," he said. But as a former teammate to Martin at Pramac Ducati, he was biased, he admitted. "I would like Jorge, because to get the chance to get a first title in MotoGP for Pramac, which is a team I love, and before moving to another brand, it would be nice. So it would be cool if Jorge gets it."

Jack Miller chose experience. "I go Pecco," the Australian said. "He's a clutch two-time champion, back to back. So he's pretty good under pressure. And as I said, I feel he's pretty clutch. It's the safe bet."

All in the mind

But there is reason to think that Jorge Martin has learned a lot from losing to Bagnaia last year. The Pramac Ducati rider is more mature, and his use of a sports psychologist in search of a mental advantage is paying off.

Friend and mentor Aleix Espargaro can see the difference. "Yeah, last year he was obviously quite nervous," the Aprilia rider explained. "We, as humans, try to learn and he got some experience from last season and tried to have more fun. This year here he is in the house with me and his girlfriend, so trying not to be super-super focused because last year I think he tried to be too much on the job and sometimes its worse. I see him this year having more fun and more relaxed. Hopefully he can make it."

Phillip Island is a rather unique place in terms of accommodation. In Europe, MotoGP riders stay in their motorhomes. At most flyaway races, they stay in upmarket hotels. There are no upmarket hotels on Phillip Island, and so the riders, like most of the teams, stay in rented houses. It makes for a more familial atmosphere, more relaxed. But also, more intimate.

The confidence game

In the first press conference on Friday, Pecco Bagnaia was asked whether he had seen a change in Martin this year. The Ducati Lenovo rider acknowledged he had, and that some of that change had come from the confidence born of results.

"I think the biggest difference compared to last season is that he started this season much better," Bagnaia said. "In terms of points he was always at the top, he led more or less all the championship apart from Qatar, because I won, then Sachsenring and Austria that I was by a few points in front. He was quite constant, more than me. We had some unlucky situations for contacts or issues with the bike."

It was confidence that mattered, though. "But what I think he has improved is that he knows he can win, he knows he can be competitive. So this makes a huge difference." Bagnaia was speaking from personal experience here. "It’s the biggest difference I felt when I won the first race in MotoGP and the first time I fought for the championship in 2021. This makes a huge change."

Under pressure

Where Bagnaia thinks he may still have an advantage is that he knows how much pressure you are under when you are fighting for a title and it comes down to the last race. You think you can prepare for it, but you really can't, Bagnaia explained.

"In terms of the mental side I think you will not understand it until you arrive at the very last part of the championship," the reigning champion said. "Because I was thinking that I was more prepared last year, compared to the year before when I didn’t sleep, I was more nervous. I was thinking that I was controlling well last year, but then when I arrived in Valencia, I was feeling a bit better because I still had a lead of 21 points, but the mental side was more or less the same. Because you feel the pressure, it’s normal. And you have to fight also against the pressure."

This is what makes this year's championship so fascinating, even when the races haven't been great. This is a war of nerves between two riders who have spent the last year training their nerves as much as their bodies and their riding. To perform at their best, both Martin and Bagnaia have to maintain an intense focus on detail, while also remaining calm and relaxed. It is the paradox of racing, and all elite sport.

Shouldering responsibility

The other paradox of racing is that you are always riding injured. But some injuries are worse than others, and Fabio Di Giannantonio has decided that he needs to have surgery on his injured left shoulder. The Pertamina Enduro VR46 rider will race at Phillip Island and Buriram, then fly home to Italy to have surgery in the week following the Thai GP.

The decision was based on the rehabilitation time needed after surgery, with a view to being as fit as possible for the start of the 2025 season in Thailand next year. "It seems the best compromise to do as many races as possible this year and to arrive as ready as possible for next year is to be back from Thailand and do the surgery right after," Di Giannantonio said.

"For sure, it's not fantastic for me because it's never good to miss races. It's never good to finish the season a bit earlier than the others and. But at the same time is I think it's good for next year that is an important year for us to arrive as ready as possible and try to be 100% in terms of physical form.

So we have to accept this and we have to work for the for this and we have to also to work at 100% these two races that I want to finish in a nice vibe this year."

Looking ahead

Skipping the last couple of races also meant missing the Valencia test, but it gave him a much better chance of being in good enough shape to have a meaningful test at Sepang. "It will be an important test," Di Giannantonio said. "So try to arrive as ready as possible for Sepang and trying to be 100% for the first race."

The feeling in his shoulder had been improving, and that was one factor that had made think about continuing. But the state of his shoulder meant surgery was inevitable. "Every week I improve. That's also was a point in the visit because I'm feeling better but inside the shoulder is not good. So we know that it's a bit weak. So that that is the main reason for the surgery."

The most important joint

Surgery was inevitable, also because the shoulder is such a crucial part of riding. But it is also uniquely vulnerable, because of the extreme range of mobility the shoulder joint has. The head of the humerus sits in the socket of the scapula, or shoulder blade, and is held in place by a complex array of muscles, sinew, and ligaments. Cartilage and membranes allow it to rotate and cushion the loads. Stretch or tear any of those ligaments or cartilage, and you are in trouble.

Shoulder injuries have ended many a career. Ben Spies, for example, was forced to retire after damaging a shoulder in a crash at Sepang in 2012, and then again at Indianapolis in 2013. Valentino Rossi struggled all throughout 2010 with a shoulder injury he picked up in a training accident. Fabio Di Giannantonio's shoulder injury appears to be worse than the injuries to Marc Márquez which forced him to have surgery in 2018 and 2019. So to save his career, Di Giannantonio has made the sensible choice.

It is not an easy choice, however. Riders spend their entire careers coping with pain and injury. When you fall off once a weekend or so, then bumps bruises, minor fractures and dislocations are par for the course. Riders learn to ignore the pain, grit their teeth, and get on with the job, surfing a wave of adrenaline and painkillers to race.

But there are some injuries which cannot be ignored. Shoulder injuries make controlling a bike that much harder, and in some cases simply impossible. Di Giannantonio should be praised for doing the right thing. Now all we need is for MotoGP, and MotoGP riders, to start to take concussion seriously.

If you enjoyed this article, please consider supporting MotoMatters.com. You can help by either taking out a subscription, supporting us on Patreon, by making a donation, or contributing via our GoFundMe page. You can find out more about subscribing to MotoMatters.com here.