MotoMatters.com | Kropotkin Thinks

With everyone safely ensconced in the Phillip Island paddock, the MotoGP riders have been pouring out expressions of love for the circuit. "When you arrive to a place where you are good, where you enjoy, then when you land on the plane there is a smile on your face," Alex Rins explained. "It happens to me when I arrive in Melbourne." Knowing that he will be riding the Phillip Island circuit brings its own kind of excitement, he said. "It is a special place and really amazing."

He wasn't the only one to sing the praises of Phillip Island. What makes the track so special? "It's all these fast corners that are very interesting, when you feel good in these corners the adrenaline is so high," Johann Zarco said. The fast corners are also what makes the racing so close, the Pramac Ducati rider explained. "That's why we are also always in a group, because if you want to catch the guy in front of you, you can quickly do a difference of 10 km/h into the corner and catch the guy in front of you."

For Pol Espargaro, who will not be a full-time rider next year, spoke poignantly about his love for the track. "I want to enjoy every lap, because maybe it's the last time I come here for racing. So I enjoy every second I am spending at this track and at this place," the GasGas Tech3 rider said. "I've always said it's my favorite place in the calendar, together with maybe Austria or the Spanish GP, it has its own soul, and I want to have fun here this weekend. Whatever the weather is coming."

There's the rub. On Thursday, the riders spoke to journalists at a near wind still Phillip Island track, with blue skies and warm air. "Actually this doesn't look like Phillip Island!" Espargaro said, pointing to the glorious weather. But bad weather is on the way. Friday should bring perfect riding conditions, Saturday will be a bit more of a normal Phillip Island day, with a stiff breeze and the chance of an occasional shower.

Then things get really bad. Though there is still some uncertainty about the forecasts, Sunday is going to be wet and windy. Just how windy is the question, different weather services give winds of between 35 km/h and 70 km/h ("We can do 450 km/h on the straight!" Fabio Di Giannantonio joked in one of the pre-event press conferences). That is the difference between being on the limit for what is acceptable, and being dangerous.

The forecast is reminiscent of 2019, when practice and qualifying was canceled because winds were gusting at over 60 km/h. Miguel Oliveira's crash on the front straight, heading into Turn 1, was the final straw, bringing out the red flags and scrapping the rest of the day's action. Qualifying was rescheduled for Sunday.

Oliveira was already concerned. "The worst is to have gusts of wind, but also if the average wind is quite high, I would say if it's above 40 km/h, already it would be the case of maybe it's too much," the Aprilia RNF rider said.

New plans please

Rescheduling in 2019 was easier. Scrapping Saturday but allowing the racing to go ahead on Sunday, when the worst of the weather had passed, fit MotoGP's plans better. But if Sunday is problematic, then rescheduling the action is difficult.

"I don't know how we could do that because Sunday looks really bad from morning to afternoon," Oliveira said. "Not because of the rain in my opinion, but just because of the wind. Could be a bit dangerous to ride, so I don't know. I think we'll take it day by day and come Saturday we'll come up with a backup plan, if Dorna sees it necessary."

The saving grace for Dorna and Race Direction might be the fact that there is already a race scheduled for Saturday. A logical step might be to change the sprint race to be the full 27 laps, holding the grand prix on Saturday and then seeing if it will be possible to run a 13-lap sprint race on Sunday.

Johann Zarco was receptive to that change. "Have the long race on Saturday, that will be the main idea, maybe. Instead of the Sprint, we do a long race," the Pramac Ducati rider said. It would complicate the championship, however. "It won't be easy to do a Saturday like this. But if we want to have points… if not, we do just the Sprint. But it means they are only nine positions to get points."

Perspective

Not everyone was concerned about the wind, though. For Marc Marquez, strong winds were not necessarily dangerous. "Here it is always windy," the Repsol Honda rider said. "Dangerous, no. It's dangerous if we have a wall too close. It's dangerous if we have aquaplaning on the straight like with the red flag in Motegi. But if it's too windy, if the track is too dirty, go slower, and then it's not dangerous. So the risk is about you. But for me, it's OK."

That didn't mean it wasn't very difficult riding a MotoGP machine at high speed in strong winds, Marquez acknowledged. "Of course it's more tricky if it's windy. But it's true that with these bikes, it's more and more difficult, because with all the aerodynamics, we feel the wind much more. But it's MotoGP now."

All of this raises the question, if the weather is such a problem, why are we racing here in mid October, right at the tail end of the Australian winter? The answer to that question is in two parts, and one of them is far more intractable than the other.

Contracts, contracts

The reason we are racing at Phillip Island in mid October, rather than late October, is basically because the Lusail International Circuit in Qatar had been completely rebuilt and resurfaced. Because of that, Qatar could not kick off the 2023 MotoGP season, and so had to be placed at the end, just before the final round in Valencia.

The rest of Asian leg of the flyaways got reshuffled as a result. Normally, Sepang would be the penultimate round, a condition they have in their contract. But Qatar's contract – to be the first race of the season – took precedence, bumping Sepang to (what is now) the 18th round, with Qatar then 19th and Valencia the 20th and last. Indonesia, Phillip Island, and Thailand were all put earlier, with Indonesia and Thailand kept separate, because they are to some extent fishing in the same pool of fans.

The real problem, of course, is why Phillip Island is at the end of the season at all, and not at the start. The reason for that is simple: F1. The Australian Grand Prix Corporation, which organizes both the F1 race and MotoGP, wants the Australian F1 race in Melbourne to be early in the calendar. They had wanted it to kick the season off, as it has in previous years, but they were outbid by oil money from the Arabian peninsula. Bahrein is the first race, followed by Saudi Arabia, and then Melbourne.

The numbers game

Because F1 is early in the year, MotoGP has to be at the other end of the season. The reason F1 has priority is simple: over 130,000 fans turn up to watch F1 in Melbourne on race day. In 2022, the official attendance was 40,197 for MotoGP on the Sunday. And that was a good crowd: in the previous editions since Casey Stoner retired at the end of the 2012 season, attendance was between 31,000 and 36,500.

There are a lot of reasons why F1's attendance is much higher than MotoGP's – global popularity of the series, the fact that it's in a major urban area rather than on an island two hours away, with limited accommodation options, just for starters. But the numbers are what they are, and you can see why the Australian Grand Prix Corporation have chosen to prioritize F1.

That begs the question of why they don't hold F1 and MotoGP on consecutive weekends. There's a lot of overlap in the fanbase, and fans might be willing to spend two weeks around Melbourne and Phillip Island for the chance to see two events, increasing the attendance of MotoGP, and perhaps also F1. The reason, a particularly cynical MotoGP official once told me, is because "the men in blazers wouldn't have anything else to do all year".

So we are stuck with what we have. MotoGP races as Australia emerges from its winter slumber, at a track which is very nearly the closest point that mainland Australia gets to Antarctica. But that track makes up for a lot.

Musical chairs

Apart from the weather, the other main topic of conversation at Phillip Island is who will be taking Marc Marquez' seat in the Repsol Honda squad. Earlier this year, it looked like it was a simple equation: Johann Zarco would be moved up from the LCR Honda squad into the Repsol team, and Iker Lecuona would be moved over from Honda's WorldSBK project into Zarco's slot.

That plan, if it ever had legs, has now been abandoned. In Australia, Zarco explained that he will be with the LCR Honda team for the next two years, the door to the Repsol Honda team now closed.

Zarco understood the decision, and put a brave face on the situation. "I really thought about that I will be this natural candidate, but I see there are also many other reasons that it didn't come naturally," the Frenchman said.

"The opportunity of the factory team, I wanted to catch it, but if I can only catch it for one year and then change again the team at the end of ‘24, there is no sense," he said. "So I prefer do a strong work for two years and develop as well as possible, the bike and really asking Honda to invest in energy as Ducati is investing energy in the Pramac team. That’s what everything we could have discussed… This will be the direction."

Two is better than one

The appeal of being a stopgap measure for a single season didn't appeal to Zarco. "Overall because I'm changing the bike and they had a little bit of trouble at Honda when Marc decided to leave and that's why I cannot be the one that just is… There is a hole. You put something to block the hole. Not like this."

Taking the seat at LCR was better, he insisted. "So it's better to really see this project with Lucio and Honda than try to be in the factory team just for one year. Because maybe it can be a little bit more interesting for the salary. But even this, if you have a project on two years, you even anyway get a better money that if you just put energy on one year. So that's why I prefer, let me do this good job with Lucio than just try to come to - it's bright to be in the factory team, but it's not bright to be in the factory team just because the seat is free."

Keeping Zarco was really important to Lucio Cecchinello at LCR as well, the Pramac Ducati rider explained. "Then there is the reason also that it was normal that Lucio tried to also get to work with me, because anyway I'm fighting for the top five in the championship and for him it can really motivate his sponsor as well as possible. So it was logical that Lucio wants to have me but… he didn’t try to really block my career to don't be a factory rider."

So Zarco is sticking with LCR. "I will finally really do my two years with Lucio, because it's really this good project for two years and I want Honda can invest even more energy with Lucio for the next two years."

There have been signs of Honda doing that, bringing parts for Takaaki Nakagami while Alex Rins was injured. And the success of Pramac shows that this is the only viable way to make progress. But HRC will have to change the way it has worked since entering grand prix racing for the second time in 1979. The inertia of corporate culture can take a very long time to turn around.

Poaching riders

If not Zarco, who? It is looking increasingly like Repsol Honda will attempt to poach someone from Aprilia. Despite rumors that they are interested, both factory Aprilia riders reaffirmed they were staying with Aprilia in 2024. "I said it many times, my commitment is 100% with Aprilia," Maverick Viñales said. "We have 5 races which we are really focused on, and I have a contract for next year. So I'm fully committed to that."

Aleix Espargaro was asked about comments that he made in Indonesia about anything being possible, and whether that applied to the Repsol Honda seat. He answered the first part of that question, but not the second. "What I tried to say is that you never know in this world," Espargaro said. "I'm the the first one who wants to respect contracts, and for me in this paddock we have to improve this quite a lot. But you never know what can happen. Things change very quick and at the end of the day you can have the contract but if both parties are agreed, everything can happen in this world. So the only thing I tried to say is that in my long career, where I learn a lot, is never say never and everything can happen in this world."

Miguel Oliveira managed to be both crystal clear and evasive at the same time. "Nothing else to add on my side," he replied when asked if his future was any clearer. "I mean I have nothing else to add to the topic. As I said in Indonesia, there is no concrete offer so I could not speak more about it. So if that comes, then I have more to say. But for now, I'm fully focused on my RNF Aprilia project."

Few other options

Beyond Oliveira, there are two other riders available. Pol Espargaro has signed up for a role as tester, substitute rider, and coach for 2024, though he has also made it clear he hopes to return in 2025. "2025 there is also a new season with new spots coming," the GasGas rider said. Given the miserable two years he spent at Repsol Honda, it seems vanishingly unlikely he could be tempted back.

Fabio Di Giannantonio is the other rider without a seat in MotoGP for 2024. He has shown strong form in the last couple of races, staking a claim to stay in the premier class. "My goal is to stay," he told the pre-event press conference. "I am a MotoGP rider. I am proving to myself and everyone that I am fast enough to be here. It seems there are chances."

Di Giannantonio pointed to the seat at Repsol Honda. "My goal is to stay, why not take the seat at Honda, but seems there are more chances, and when it’s clear we will decide what is best for me and my future."

Repsol Honda seems unlikely. Given the riders which are available and interested – fans will occasionally ask, why not Jorge Martin? Because he is busy trying to win a championship, and if he turns down the ride in 2024, nearly all of the seats are open again in 2025, so he gets another shot anyway, is the answer – the most likely option would appear to be for HRC to poach Miguel Oliveira and for RNF Aprilia to pick up Fabio Di Giannantonio.

That would be the logical choice. But logic may or may not feature into the decision. We will see soon enough.

Finally, the trip to Phillip Island means a chance to talk about Casey Stoner. Pecco Bagnaia, Jorge Martin, and Marco Bezzecchi were all asked what made Stoner special around the Phillip Island circuit. "Incredible instinct," Bagnaia said. "He was making the difference every time the conditions were not perfect. I remember a practice in wet, that he entered, he did 3 laps, and he was like 2 seconds faster than the second rider. And after 40 minutes of session, when they were close to him, he entered for another 2 laps and he did another 2 seconds to the second rider. So for that he was incredible."

The reigning world champion has a little more insight into Stoner than others, as he is working with Cristian Gabarrini, who was crew chief to the Australian at both Ducati and Honda. Bagnaia pointed to 2007, when Stoner became MotoGP champion. "He was incredible with the Ducati bike that when he won the title, it was just fast with him, and the year after, he was demonstrating that he was the only one able to go fast with the Ducati. When he arrived to Honda, it was like everything easy for him. So I think his talent and his instinct were incredible."

"Difficult to add something more, but fantastic talent, very good guy as well," Marco Bezzecchi said. "Everywhere he was incredible to watch, but here he was something unbelievable, also because the track is already unbelievable, and with his riding style, it was something very nice."

It has been more than a decade since we last saw Casey Stoner around Phillip Island. Luckily, we still have the track. That makes up for a lot.

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