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Phillip Island MotoGP Sunday Subscriber Notes: It Takes More Than One Race To Win A Championship

By David Emmett |

Intellectually, we all understand that championships are won over an entire season. But nobody watches MotoGP, or any form of sports intellectually. The passion for sports is a deep-seated emotion that goes back to the dawn of human history. So when we get to the end of a championship, fans tend to look back and try to pinpoint a single event that decided the championship. Usually, that's the most recent and shocking or surprising event that fans can remember.

Take 2006. Ask a long-time MotoGP fan what cost Valentino Rossi the title and they will tell you it was the 5 points Rossi lost to Toni Elias when Elias beat him at Estoril at the penultimate round. But this glosses over the fact that Elias had knocked Rossi into the gravel at the opening round in Jerez, that Rossi had suffered massive tire problems in China, had mechanicals at Le Mans and Laguna Seca, and struggled with chatter in the first half of the season after being distracted by the possibility of a switch to F1. And there was the crash at Valencia. Nicky Hayden won the 2006 MotoGP title simply by being more consistent than Rossi over the full 17 rounds.

After the 2024 championship trophy has been handed to the winner, fans and media will go through the same pantomime all over again. If, as is looking increasingly likely, Jorge Martin becomes champion, they will point to the collision between Alex Márquez and Pecco Bagnaia as the reason Bagnaia failed to win.

This conveniently ignores Bagnaia's crash in Portimão with Marc Márquez, the issues he put down to tires in the sprint races at Austin and Aragon, his crash in the sprint race at Jerez with Marco Bezzecchi and Brad Binder, crashes in the sprint races at Barcelona and Silverstone, and his retirement from the sprint race with a mechanical at Le Mans.

Likewise, if Bagnaia manages to pull back points from Martin and successfully defend his title by a narrow margin, fans and media will point to the 5 points that Marc Márquez took from Martin at Phillip Island on Sunday as where the Pramac Ducati rider lost the championship. If the margin is wider, they will hark back to Martin's mistake at Misano 1, when he pulled in to swap bikes when it started raining, only to leave the pits again and find the track was dry.

Here, too, fans and media gloss over the errors Martin has made throughout the season. The forget about the fact that the Pramac rider has crashed out of the lead of a Sunday grand prix not once, but twice, at Jerez and Sachsenring. Or that he crashed out of third in the sprint at Mugello, or out of the lead in the sprint at Mandalika on the first lap.

The 5 points Jorge Martin lost to Marc Márquez when the Gresini Ducati executed a brutal but clean block pass into Turn 4 with four laps to go are just part of a much bigger story over an entire season. Those 5 points are important, but only as part of the much bigger picture.

The riders themselves know this. Hence the barely suppressed eye rolls when a journalist asked Bagnaia whether he felt Márquez had done him a favor by taking 5 points from Jorge Martin at Phillip Island. Bagnaia's response was to turn to Márquez and ask, "Did you do me a favor?" Márquez immediately replied "Today, yes. I take five points," and burst out laughing.

Bagnaia then explained Márquez' real motivation. "I think it was more he wanted to win," the Ducati rider told the press conference. "The possibility of a win for him today was much higher. Yesterday Jorge was really strong. Today it’s true that he missed the start again, but his pace was much stronger and finally he won. I don't think he was thinking about 2015."

Because that is where the question started, over the conspiracy theory that Marc Márquez had somehow interfered in the 2015 championship by winning the race in Phillip Island ahead of Jorge Lorenzo.

17
2024
MotoGP
Phillip Island, Australia
Ducati
KTM
Brad Binder
Fabio Di Giannantonio
Francesco Bagnaia
Jorge Martin
Marc Marquez
Pedro Acosta
CormacGP
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Comments

...with Marc's win here, and his speed on the '23 bike, what's the buzz in the pits like? There must be guys murmurings/mutterings about 'Godzilla' being back. A confident Marc is a scary fast Marc!  

The expectation is that he will clean up like in 2019. It is rumored that Carmelo Ezpeleta did what he could to prevent Marc being on a factory Ducati, precisely because he fears this scenario. But let's see what happens. A lot is going to change in 2025.

The fact that people think it will be like 2019 is a bit surprising, given that Marc's 2019 season is arguably the greatest one in GP history. High bar to clear.

But I do think he'll easily win the championship, even if he does occasionally finish all the way down in the 3rd or 4th. :)

Late to the party, but this weekend was a real eye-opener for me. I'd thought the game had moved on over the past four years, and the new generation of talent had honed itself enough to keep Marc at bay. Clearly, this is not the case. I could tell by lap 4 that Marc had the win - he seems to know how to get more out of the GP23 than anyone on the grid this year or last. Neither Pecco nor Jorge look like they could stand up to Marc on equal hardware, and Martin's about to get a downgrade. I guess Marc really is just that much better than the rest of these guys.

While the championship has been exceedingly close, the racing this year has been 800cc levels of boring. Add number 93 on the best bike next year, and you have a recipe for 2014 all over again - but with way less passing. If Acosta had lived up to the hype, or Yamaha had made real progress to put Fabio back in front, I'd be excited. But I'm afraid we're in for another year of utter Marc domination - and Matt Birt obnoxiously losing his mind with glee in the process. Sad - but better to see the championship for what it is, rather than what you wish it was! As well as its current champion.

I hope you're right about 2025 and change, David. Right now, it feels like a big platter of inevitability.

Marc next year is definitely a bit of a scary thought. I don't imagine Jorge on the Aprilia in for a title fight. Maybe Digia will surprise on a GP25 but he doesn't seem quite at that level of consistency, especially if the shoulder issue continues.

During one of Marc's debriefs he said something to the effect of, PI makes for good races because it lacks the stop and go nature of certain tracks that exacerbate the aero issue. It's true that it's a track where the rider makes the difference, but for my engineering brain it's easier to look at tracks by the average gears their corners are taken in. Generally 3rd-4th gear corners are ideal for racing and just general track enjoyment and I feel like PI is primarily that.

I still hope and pray Dorna comes to its senses and cuts down the calendar. Japanese fans are great but I would love to never see a "race" at Motegi again. Fuji Speedway maybe? There are a few real snoozers on the calendar right now.

"I still hope and pray Dorna comes to its senses and cuts down the calendar. Japanese fans are great but I would love to never see a "race" at Motegi again. Fuji Speedway maybe? There are a few real snoozers on the calendar right now."

A round or two less would benefit all teams. There one or two obvious tracks which offer little by way of spectating as being "competitive and interesting" tracks. Realising the future has already been decided, may I fantasize the spectacle of current (future) bikes through Eau Rouge at Spa...

It was a great race, but as good as the track is I can't help thinking that if not for Marc's bug incident at the start, we could easily have had 10 second gaps between 1st and 2nd as well as between 2nd and 3rd.

To me this race actually shows how bad the racing has become. This was a good race, but PI is usually excellent. 

The last two rounds have also shown how dangerous the ride height devices can be. I’m surprised they’re not getting banned sooner.

I thought the race coverage was great. [3 great races  didn't hurt either.]

The focus on the battling positions, with an inset of the top 2, in both the Moto2 and GP races was so much better than the nonstop focus on the lead riders. 

Be nice to see a few more crews following their lead

I remember when Marc signed for Gresini last year the 'word' was '2024 Champion'. There was little doubt. Even Gigi's comments on the GP24 being more of a step up than the GP23 over the GP22 didn't dampen the notion. Surely the new bike couldn't be that much better.

Well, I guess the faster GP24 explains why Pecco and Martin are more often than not, since Marc adjusted to the Ducati, faster. They are also, more often than not, a good deal faster than the other GP24. Enea has shown flashes but over the season, compared to Jorge and Pecco, not. Franco ? A good step behind. Marc has also shown a good advantage, a bigger advantage, over the other GP23. However, recently, in lap times, they have closed the gap a little. 

Now everything points at Marquez being 2025 Champion. No doubts again, might win all of them. Ok, not all but big numbers. Maybe. I think favorite but not uncontested. If Pecco can crash less than this year, he'll be in the fight. If he finished more this year he would be leading by some margin. However, if Marc made less mistakes this year he would also be in a better position. Next year he wont make as many because making lots of mistakes is only something all of the other riders do. 

88/62 vs 115/89 in 44 rounds ? Marc needs to win more than half which is better than early Marquez levels of destruction. Actually, he would need better than two seasons like 2019. That strike rate over 22 rounds would give him 13 wins per season and leave him 1 short of Rossi's premier class total and 1 short of Rossi's all class total. He needs two 2014 seasons which might win him another 30 races. 

It's not impossible but doubts...many many. 

If they start counting sprint wins.... 

Bagnaia has just as many chances to close the points gap to Martin over the next 3 rounds, as he does to extend that gap. I say extend that gap because of the rate of DNFs by the 2 protagonists, crashing out could be the pivotal moment that fans latch onto.

But the big question everybody needs to know the answer to, is where is the onboard footage of Marc Marquez's first lap? Dorna normally publish videos that give the fans extra I sight. Just look at all the angles of the tear off incident.

Thanks David

Watching Marc in one corner pass DiGiantonnio, Fernandez, Rins, Alex Marquez and Miller is quite something. Ok, Miller went in hot and pushed Alex Marquez out but the way he threaded the needle between Rins, Fernandez and DiGiantonnio was quite something.

Agree with you David. Followed the sport for many years. Ride height and start devices I also think are actually detrimental to bike racing its gradually killing it .Works lovely for an engineer passing his day sat behind a CAD screen but not someone sat in the wind trackside hoping for some action...      

I do think that with this win and that comment about helping Pecco by grabbing away 5 points from Martin, Marc was also laughing into Rossi's face as well! He was basically saying that it was stupid of Rossi to even think that Marc could influence his 2015 campaign, a topic freshly brought up by none other than Rossi himself! That is my view at least, and I am a fan of Rossi from the get-go, but always admired Marc's riding capabilities! Not his dancing capabilities and over-aggressive moves on track, but well...

I seem to remember earlier this season, I forget how far back, a few hours or weeks, that the Spaniard was obviously going to screw over the Italian in order to help the Spaniard because the other Italian was friends with another Italian who he'd screwed over for another Spaniard. Now the Spaniard is helping the Italian to screw over the Spaniard because the Spaniard will be with the Italian's Italian team next year and because gnocchi. I can't wait to find out who did it, with what and in which room. I think now would be an excellent time for Ianonne to make a cameo. 

I have a bad feeling about this. If we try to go way back to the prequels we can end up with an "off the track Jar Jar Binks" focus.

There is a popular fan edit of the Episodes 4/5/6 into one cohesive film available online. SO good! All the "off track" nonsense on the cutting room floor.

Right now "Spain Strikes Back" may be about to transition into "Return of the Italian" ON TRACK and liking a focus there. Trust your feelings! (Feel like indulging bygone tribal bullsh*t? Nope, me either). Not only are most of the off track dramas minimized, but the "polite era" on track is gone. The Force is more balanced?

Good racing awaits. I know who I hope wins it, and it surprises me a tad.

Cheers!

Bimota homologation special hit Jerez today. 500 units in next 2 yrs, remind you of anything? Frame looks a KTM GPish affair. Petronas Fogerty? Maybe. I'm thinking more the Aprilia CRT bike that A.Espargaro put up in the mix doing the business. 

Expecting good things? I am. Fair? Against Ducati, yes. Japanese competition? No, not really. But isn't this FUN?! Is here!

Honda won't. Nor Yamaha. But Kawi can! Hope they are a challenger by Summer break. Lowes might surprise.

It's got telescopic forks Motoshrink. Showa Forks.

No funky front end. If Bimota ain't going to do it then it will quite some time before we see a Tesi or anything different. Spec tires don't encourage radically different design.

There have been multiple attempts to replace telescopic forks for many years, and as far as I remember none have enjoyed much success. Hard to tell if something else better might come along, or if successful riders aren't interested in relearning how to ride, or if current tires are keyed to telescopics, or if there's insufficient development money available for odd ideas, or if telescopics are the best of all possible solutions, etc., etc.

Regardless, I don't see another configuration ever getting a realistic chance?

 

Heck, lots of us here including me didn't even think KTM's in house WP suspension and frame could be competitive. Great surprise! More is possible? (I'm happy w these forks, very interested in KTM and Aprilia's projects, and now Yamaha curious as a full circle from the pevious era or two ago).

Welcome Castrol to Factory Honda in place of Repsol, see that news yet?

Bimota just went speedy 1st go over in WSBK. BMW/Turkalien won a title after being so good in Superstock form. Today Toprak's manager announced plans for him to go MotoGP 2026.

Hope

Have no doubt that like all Spaniards, MM is a Spaniard first and last.  That is their mindset; Team Spain.  
The Italians are all individuals as is every other country.  

I take MM to win the 2025 title but can we talk about this season first?  He won't walk it but he will control it.  Pecco will be the biggest loser and Jorge Martin is going to surprise you all because the Aprilia is a very good bike.  Just look at the speed MV showed in the Saturday Sprint.  

All that has let the Aprilia down this season is AE knowing he was retiring and MV being a screwball.  Jorge is going to have a very good season next year especially with the number '1' on the front.  

As for the aero; disagree and love it, absolutely love it.  
squating device; unnecassary but glad they've done it and learnt a ton.  when they justify the racing budget in the head office they'll put forwards what they have learnt.  all ticks in a book.  Sorry lads.......

As for aero and not overtaking, I think its trendy to slag it.  Front tyres are still a serious problem and Michelin have let us all down for 2025.  Everyone...  It was bezz who had the accident not his aero.  He tried to start braking 40m later.  Race direction found out about it.  
You wait till we get 850cc you'll be talking about the good old days.  

Without MM and his wonderful personality (I like him much more than I ever did Valentino) this championship wouldn't have been half the fun it has been.  There was a period before the flyaways when Pecco was winning I began to think that this was the beginning of the end....I wasn't sure what of but I doubted I guess; my enthusiasms natural energy to outlast the dullest most tedious top level rider I have seen in years.  The problem isn't the racing, or Ducati, the problem is him.  

@Taffmeister I agree with you about the aero, and it being a trendy easy slag. The bikes have had aero for eight years and now there’s a whole lot of fans that have only known MotoGP bikes to have aero. Sure it has its downsides, but we can assume its upsides outweigh them or the manufacturers wouldn’t be continuing development or want it on the bikes. The racing for the whole grid is arguably as close as it’s ever been. They’re all fast, on good bikes, and in professional teams (not sure about Aprilia). Big gaps and big speed differentials are a thing of the past so logically overtaking will be hard. And for those that say the Ducati Cup is destroying the racing, I suggest they watch some one design racing (where all the motorbikes are the same) and discover just how good it can be.

He basically said racing at PI is good because its layout doesnt exacerbate the problems of aero/RHD. The more stop and go a track is, the worse the tech is for the racing. This is why Motegi was so bad. I think Motegi is pretty consistently bad too. PI, Assen, Mugello, Misano etc... fast flowing tracks, the riders can go crazy, vs stop and go tracks they are reliant on RHD out of slow corners and then battling aero in hard braking zones.

The tire thing is Dorna's fault, they need to provide more test time. Too many races, get rid of some rounds and replace them with test weeks. Back in the day there was a lot more testing. Michelin can't spring a new front tire on the grid without data.

The manufacturers will develop anything that make for shorter lap times and increase their chances of winning. This includes deliberately developing appendages which cause the follwing rider more problems...the problems which apparently do not exist to some. However, all of the riders think they exist and are only split on whether to keep the current (and future) levels of aero. As CTK mentions above, good bad racing has been determined by tracks aero or no aero. As for Bez/Mav...I'll stick with what MM said about it. Strange thing about old slower wingless bikes, they look faster. 

be careful what you wish for....

the reason these bikes are doing 175mph at every track is BECAUSE of the aero.  They are safe, they are part of the safety.  Aero is safe.  

reminder; Bezz was found to have missed his breaking point completely.  He got a long lap for it.  He wasn't sucked into anything.  Don't give the commentators superhuman qualities they don't have.  Hodgy was confident MM wasn't the Marquez in 7th going round the southern loop on lap one - but it was.  

take the aero off and watch them have accidents everywhere.  Aero is a wing turned upside down to keep the 'aircraft' pinned to the track.  

If you only knew how much programming of the power goes on and that the riders are cosseted little boys at the throttle end of the computer you'd cry but it is invisible.  

The reason they are 1,000cc is because they want to scare the crap out of us with the sheer speed and they were forced there to go quicker than the 500cc 2T and world superbikes.  Ideally they'd be back on 500cc 4T bikes with very, very restricted computerised ignition (simply; wet, damp or dry = 3 settings) and the riders right hand would be more 'involved'.  
 

Sorry Taff but that's a long used fallacy. The faster the bike/rider is travelling when they drop it, the more energy there is that has to go somewhere before the rider can walk away. As you correctly point out, the reason the bikes are doing whatever speed at the end of whatever straight is aero. Without it they will never reach their current speeds because they'll be nursing a wheelie for pretty much the entire length of the Losail start finish straight. Without aero, on most tracks, in most places, they would be travelling slower. 

Without aero the brakes would be under less stress. The braking distances would be longer. Aha ! The fallacy can raise its head again because, naturally, a bike that takes longer to stop must be less safe. Except, when the rider drops it because the rider with aero is, for a given speed, closer to the turn and the barriers on the other side of the gravel trap. The aero doesn't work for a rider on his backside but it does mean he's closer to a big sudden stop and travelling faster to boot. 

If they somehow managed to magically return to 2013 aero the riders would have as many accidents as they do now. They might have as many, more, or less than they did in 2013. However, they would, on average if not always, be travelling slower. 

I tend to listen to Marquez on the subject of aero because he has been the most consistent in his opinion. Other riders' love/hate of aero seems to wax and wane depending on how well they perceive their bike is doing in the aero game. Marc, it's not good. 

“Especially today, the wind was pushing laterally, and I think Vinales can’t avoid that movement (to go in front of Bezzecchi) and Bezzecchi can’t avoid the sucking. Guys are arriving at 320 kph at the end of the straight, shaking, windy.” MM93

They judged that Bez should have been more cautious. Just what we need in racing.