MotoMatters.com | Kropotkin Thinks

With the 2025 MotoGP season slowly starting to heave into view, it's time to make a few predictions of what may lie ahead. In the second part of my predictions for the coming season, I offer a few more hostages to fortune.

Jorge Martin - sacrificing 2025 for 2026

Jorge Martin's 2024 championship campaign was a huge improvement over 2023. The Pramac Ducati rider learned from the mistakes he made at the start of his 2023 campaign, and worked to improve them. The campaign wasn't quite flawless - he crashed out of the lead at both Jerez and Sachsenring, throwing away 50 points - but it was a massive step forward.

At Mugello, we learned that Ducati had chosen Marc Márquez over Jorge Martin to partner Pecco Bagnaia in the factory squad. And on Monday evening, after a rained off test, just as we were about to pack up and head home, we were told that Jorge Martin had signed with Aprilia.

It was unexpected, but not a surprise. The main reason that riders leave a team, factory, or manufacturer is because they do not feel they are being treated with the respect they deserve. And being passed over for the factory slot definitely felt like a slight.

What can Jorge Martin do at Aprilia? Well, he won't be champion in 2025. But don't take my word for that, it's what Martin himself said to the Tengo Un Plan podcast in December. "Fighting for the title with Aprilia will not be easy, so that is not the objective for the new season," he said. A better chance would come in 2026.

Looking back at 2024, you have to say this is a realistic assessment. Though Aprilia scored 9 podiums, including 3 sprint wins and one GP, their campaign faltered badly in the second half, going from scoring an average of 19.2 points per race in the manufacturers championship to scoring 11 points. The project made no headway through the year.

But Aprilia were also hampered by their riders. Aleix Espargaro chose to announce his retirement at Barcelona, and though he has been a stalwart for Aprilia through the years, he's been a very good rider, rather than a great one. Maverick Viñales has always been a mercurial talent, brilliant when everything is right (Viñales took three of Aprilia's four wins), but nowhere when things are just a bit off. Raul Fernandez is immensely talented, but unable to turn talent into results, and Miguel Oliveira never really bonded with the Aprilia RS-GP in its 2024 guise.

Jorge Martin and Marco Bezzecchi represent a big upgrade on the factory Aprilia team's previous line up. Bezzecchi struggled in 2024 with the combination of the Ducati GP23 and Michelin's new rear tire, and could only occasionally show what he is capable of. But Martin proved he was the complete package in 2024, both in terms of riding, conditioning, and especially mental resilience.

If Martin is going into 2025 with the objective of working toward 2026, then he has the mentality to be a contender next year. Though Aprilia will not be able to update their engine for 2026 - there is an engine development freeze for Ducati, KTM, and Aprilia for the 2026 season - there is plenty of room for improvement in both braking and turning.

The bike Aleix Espargaro leaves behind for his protege Jorge Martin will be good enough for the reigning world champion to contend for podiums in 2025. And Jorge Martin has the strength of character to set realistic goals and achieve them. But it will take until 2026 for him to challenge for the #1 plate again.

Yamaha's V4 - slower in the short term, faster in the future?

There is no doubt that Yamaha are doing everything possible to become competitive again in MotoGP. The hiring of performance engineer Max Bartolini to oversee the integration between Japan and Europe, the involvement of Luca Marmorini to work on the Yamaha's engine, the increased focus on aerodynamics, the expansion of Yamaha Motor Racing's Italian base to take on more responsibility in their MotoGP project. All this tells you just how seriously Yamaha are taking this.

The decision to build a V4 with a view to seeking more performance while continuing to develop the in-line four is the clearest example of just how important this is to Yamaha. Developing two engine configurations is a big enough task. But developing a V4 as well as an IL4 also means developing a completely new motorcycle, with very different chassis.

The V4 was due to take to the track at a private test in December, but problems getting it running prevented its on track debut. But the fact that Yamaha almost had the bike running is a sign of how far along the project is. There is a very strong chance Yamaha will field it publicly for the first time at the Sepang test.

It is clear that Yamaha sees the V4 as the future, both from the effort being put into development, and from talking to people involved with the project. But building a more powerful engine is just the start: Yamaha also have to build a chassis to house that engine, and make that as good as the one currently holding the inline four. They have two decades of experience building inline fours in MotoGP, and no experience with V4s.

Yamaha face a dilemma. They need to put a lot of resources into developing the V4, and turning a lighter, narrower, more powerful engine into a competitive motorcycle. But they also need to keep their riders happy, especially the long-suffering Fabio Quartararo. The Frenchman has been good at suppressing his frustration at the lack of competitiveness of the Yamaha. A lengthy wait for a competitive V4 will certainly try his patience.

But the earlier Yamaha make the switch, the better. That is going to mean sacrificing part of the season to make the step ready for 2026. And it is going to mean making the decision when to switch, which will require a massive operation in terms of producing enough bikes and parts to go racing.

What is the scale of this operation? Were Yamaha to decide to equip both the factory and the Pramac squad with the V4s, they will have to go into the 2025 season with a plan to build 16 racing motorcycles: two IL4s for each rider, plus two V4s. They are in effect doing what Ducati did last year, but with just four riders.

Yamaha have said that they will only switch to the V4 once it is as competitive as the inline four. So expect to see Yamaha's new test rider Augusto Fernandez make frequent wildcard appearances - the concessions system says that Yamaha, as a Category D manufacturer can have up to 6 wildcards in 2025 - mostly on the V4 machine.

So here is my prediction. For the first half of the season, the four Yamaha riders will continue to race the inline four M1. They will test the V4 at the Jerez and Aragon tests, and at private tests in between, with Augusto Fernandez wildcarding where possible. The test of the final prototype will come at Misano, and a decision about a switch will come there.

The next race after Misano is Motegi. And what better place to debut the V4 than at Yamaha's home round?

Honda will make a big step forward

Yamaha have something of an advantage over Honda, as their struggles started earlier and they have been quicker to address them. Honda only really realized how bad things had become in 2023, when Marc Márquez was finally fit enough to be competitive, and decided to leave because he saw no path to another shot at winning. 2024 has been Honda's worst year in MotoGP since the infamous and technically brilliant oval piston NR500 took to the track in 1981.

It took the failure of Marc Márquez to be competitive to realize just how deep the hole they were in was. Since that moment, they have been trying to turn the ship around, though still with limited success. They have held onto their riders for 2025, though Takaaki Nakagami returns to Japan to take on a new role as test rider, replaced in LCR by rookie Somkiat Chantra.

There have also been changes to the technical team. Senior management has been reshuffled, and after a failed attempt to persuade Gigi Dall'Igna to leave Ducati for Honda (though my understanding is that Honda's Japanese bosses were also reluctant to hire Dall'Igna), they have successfully poached Aprilia's technical lead Romano Albesiano to be the head of their MotoGP project. They have also added Aleix Espargaro as a test rider, alongside Stefan Bradl.

Honda's results took a step forward after the Misano test in 2024, when the factory finally found the right direction for development. They had corrected the mistake they made in 2023, when they changed the bike to put more load on the rear, and sacrificed confidence in the front end. The front end feeling returned in the latter part of 2024.

So Honda have a lot of work to do for 2025. Their project has languished for a long time, the current iteration of the RC213V more like a bike from a previous generation with wings than a bike built around the concept of ride-height devices and aerodynamics. That is what the arrival of Albesiano, and the expansion of a European base for HRC is aimed at doing.

Honda's biggest hurdle is finding more rear grip, and exploiting more of Michelin's rear tire. That was where Luca Marini, Joan Mir, Johann Zarco, and Takaaki Nakagami struggled most in 2024. Johann Zarco, in particular, has proved to be a valuable asset, focused on extracting the most performance possible from the RC213V, while Luca Marini has proved to be very good at providing clear and useful feedback.

With the experience of the last two years, where they took the wrong direction and then had to correct course, they have a lot of data to work with. So it is reasonable to expect that Honda will make some serious steps forward in 2025, though they are coming from such a very long way behind. They are still nowhere near competing for wins, but instead of struggling to just score points, they should be aiming for regular top tens.

Once upon a time, other riders complained of a 'Honda lane' at race tracks, when the Japanese factory's legendary NSR500 would just fly past the competition. Right now, the Honda lane is where they sit to be overtaken, rather than where they do their overtaking. Reversing that trend starts in 2025.

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