The Buriram MotoGP test confirmed Ducati as the preseason favorite, with Aprilia a close second and KTM possibly on the prowl. But what about the Japanese manufacturers? After a couple of years in the wilderness, are they any closer to regaining competitiveness?
After the Buriram test, it looks like Aprilia have raised their game to start to disrupt Ducati's domination of the series. And it also appears they might have overtaken KTM, with Marco Bezzecchi just a fraction slower than Pedro Acosta, and much stronger in race pace.
So where does the Austrian manufacturer stand? And how are their signings of Maverick Viñales and Enea Bastianini to the Tech3 team working out?
"This test, these tests don't mean anything, but it means a lot in the same time," said Joan Mir on Thursday after the MotoGP test at Buriram had finished. Though the Honda HRC Castrol rider was talking about the progress made during the test rather the results, he has succinctly summed up precisely how to view the outcome of preseason testing for 2025.
The standings at the end of the Buriram test do not set the outcome of the 2025 MotoGP season in stone. But the times set and the work done do give a good indication of where everyone stands ahead of the first round of the season, and the paths they are headed down. The results of preseason testing should be taken seriously, but not literally.
So what can we say about the outcome of the Buriram tests? A few thoughts, spread over several articles. Starting with Ducati. Why did they revert to the GP24? And does that mean they are going backward?
The final preseason test is a strange creature. Most of the work has already been done at the first test at Sepang. Parts have been tried, and either accepted for use or sent back for scrap. (The parts may be scrapped, but the ideas will be laid aside and the results used to make something better next time.) So there really is a lot less for the teams and factories to test.
Looking at pictures from Buriram, you would be hard pressed to see any new parts compared to the bikes used at Sepang. Or indeed new parts compared to the Barcelona test. As I wrote after Sepang, we are at the stage of MotoGP bike development where designs are converging on the most efficient aerodynamic shape. And we probably won't see any major changes until the new technical rules arrive in 2027.
Jorge Martin took the Aprilia RS-GP he first tried after the last race in Barcelona for his first run of the Sepang test. So you can see he is feeling his way up to speed, especially with the medium rear tire.
Is this a Ducati GP24 or a Ducati GP25? At the moment, the answer to that question is "yes".
Much of the attention at the launch of Aprilia's MotoGP project for 2025 centered on the question of whether Jorge Martin would run the #1 plate or continue to run his traditional #89. It was never really going to be a question, Martin explained as he unveiled his bike. "I didn't have any doubt about running the #1, because I've been fighting for this all my life." Perhaps there is a generational shift taking place, with riders preferring to run the #1 plate again after Pecco Bagnaia broke the perceived curse in 2023.
The unveiling was done well, though it wasn't captured on the live video stream. As Aprilia PR boss Antonio Boselli spoke to riders Jorge Martin and Marco Bezzecchi before the livery was unveiled, the backdrop behind Martin showed his old number, #89.
With the 2025 MotoGP season slowly starting to heave into view, it's time to make a few predictions of what may lie ahead. In the second part of my predictions for the coming season, I offer a few more hostages to fortune.
Jorge Martin - sacrificing 2025 for 2026
Jorge Martin's 2024 championship campaign was a huge improvement over 2023. The Pramac Ducati rider learned from the mistakes he made at the start of his 2023 campaign, and worked to improve them. The campaign wasn't quite flawless - he crashed out of the lead at both Jerez and Sachsenring, throwing away 50 points - but it was a massive step forward.
At Mugello, we learned that Ducati had chosen Marc Márquez over Jorge Martin to partner Pecco Bagnaia in the factory squad. And on Monday evening, after a rained off test, just as we were about to pack up and head home, we were told that Jorge Martin had signed with Aprilia.
It was unexpected, but not a surprise. The main reason that riders leave a team, factory, or manufacturer is because they do not feel they are being treated with the respect they deserve. And being passed over for the factory slot definitely felt like a slight.
With the 2025 MotoGP season slowly starting to heave into view, it's time to make a few predictions of what may lie ahead. There are a few things that seem almost set in stone for this year, but racing and reality have a way of surprising us. So below are my hostages to fortune for 2025. The first part appears today, with the rest to come tomorrow.
Meet your 2025 MotoGP champion: Marc Márquez
It is pretty much a given that Ducati will make it four rider championships in a row. And it is indisputable that the pairing of Marc Márquez and Pecco Bagnaia at the factory Ducati squad is the best team on the MotoGP grid in 2025. So the chances that one of the two will take the 2025 crown are pretty close to 100%.
So why pick Marc Márquez, a rider who hasn't won a title in five seasons, over Pecco Bagnaia, who won two of the last three titles and has spent all of his MotoGP career on a Ducati? The flippant (if correct) answer is because he's Marc Márquez. But the statistics bear this out.
On December 31st, 2024, Lin Jarvis stepped down as Managing Director of Yamaha Motor Racing, the organization that runs Yamaha's MotoGP project. In the 26 years that Jarvis has been in charge, Yamaha have known incredible success. Eight rider titles, with Valentino Rossi, Jorge Lorenzo, and Fabio Quartararo, as well as six manufacturer and seven team titles. Under Jarvis, Yamaha won the triple crown five times, in 2005, 2008, 2009, 2010, and 2015.
You can read the first and second parts of my marathon interview with Jarvis here (part 1) and here (part 2). In the final part, he talks about Valentino Rossi's return to Yamaha after leaving for Ducati in 2011 and 2012. He explains the delicate balancing act that required, which the fallout of the 2015 season nearly upended. And he talks about the riders who came after, including Maverick Viñales and Fabio Quartararo, and the process of identifying talent.
Jarvis also talks about how Nicky Hayden got away from Yamaha, and the project he launched to turn Yamaha's failing fortunes around.
The Prodigal Son Returns
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