MotoMatters.com | Kropotkin Thinks

It is no secret that Honda and Yamaha are struggling in MotoGP at the moment. The first rider in the championship on a Japanese motorcycle is Monster Energy Yamaha's Fabio Quartararo in ninth place with 64 points, less than a third of the total of championship leader, Ducati Lenovo's Pecco Bagnaia. Honda and Yamaha are in fourth and fifth place in the manufacturer standings, the Monster Energy Yamaha team are in sixth in the team standings and the Repsol Honda team are dead last, behind the CryptoDATA RNF Aprilia team and the GasGas Factory Racing Tech3 team, both of who have been missing their best riders for most of the season. Things are not going well.

This is bad for MotoGP in a number of ways. To start with, it makes the sport look very lopsided. Ducati have been very successful so far this year, but the lack of competitive Hondas and Yamahas only exaggerates the extent to which the Italian factory has dominated. Ducatis have won all but one of the grand prix, and all but two of the sprint races. They have taken 34 of 48 possible podium places, or 71%, and nearly 52% of all places in the top ten.

It isn't just Ducati, of course. KTM and Aprilia are currently second and third in the manufacturer standings, and the Red Bull KTM Factory Racing Team is right on tail of the Ducati Lenovo Team in the team championship. Brad Binder has had two wins in sprint races in 2023, and at Jerez, both Binder and teammate Red Bull KTM Factory Racing teammate Jack Miller stood on the podium in the grand prix.

After Suzuki pulled out of MotoGP at the end of 2022, the Japanese manufacturers no longer seem like such a firm fixture in MotoGP. If they have no chance of success, the amount being spent on MotoGP becomes harder to justify within the company. Racing is a source of pride and identity for both Honda and Yamaha, especially at the grand prix level. But at some point, questions might be asked as to whether it is worth it.

At Assen, the first rumors started to emerge of Dorna wanting to address the current imbalance. There was talk of bringing in concessions for the struggling Japanese factories. When asked about this by Frank Weeink of Dutch TV broadcaster Ziggo Sport, Dorna Chief Sporting Officer Carlos Ezpeleta acknowledged the problems for the Japanese manufacturers.

"Honda and Yamaha are intrinsic parts of the championship, and they've been here for a very long time, so it's our responsibility that they feel that it's important to continue to participate in MotoGP," Ezpeleta told Ziggo. "Of course from a sporting side it seems like the Europeans have bridged the gap if not reversed it, but the championship is very dynamic to look at how we can help manufacturers in any specific way, in any point."

Dorna was certainly open to taking a look at the concessions system, and finding ways of improving it, Ezpeleta said. "In the regulations as of now, Honda and Yamaha would not have concessions next year, because both Honda and Yamaha had podiums in the Americas GP in Austin, but it doesn't mean that we're not open to modifying that. I think that the concessions system as it is now is probably maybe outdated, because the way it was envisioned was about welcoming new manufacturers in, and when they were going to lose concessions, rather than assisting manufacturers when they needed some help and regaining concessions."

Then this week, speaking to Damià Aguilar of Catalunya Radio, Ezpeleta expressed a firmer commitment to changing the way concessions operated. "Dorna's official position is that the concessions system needs to be updated." Ezpeleta pointed out that Honda and Yamaha had been considerate and open to the other manufacturers a decade ago when the concessions system was introduced. And that system had helped Ducati, KTM, and Aprilia reach the point where they were now dominating MotoGP.

As laudable as such sentiments may be, actually updating the concessions is not up to Dorna. The concessions system is laid out in section 2.4.2 of the FIM Grand Prix regulations. The most important part of that section is the first number, 2. Chapter 2 is title "Technical Regulations", and by contract, the MotoGP manufacturers, through their representative body, the MSMA, have a veto over the technical rules. Even if Dorna, IRTA, and the FIM, the three other members of MotoGP's rule-making body, the Grand Prix Commission, propose a change to the technical rules, the MSMA can unilaterally kill such a proposal.

The catch, of course, is that the veto applies only when the MSMA is unanimous. In the current case, when all five MotoGP manufacturers agree to reject the proposal put in front of them.

Could the MSMA reject the proposal? That is certainly a concern for Dorna. "That's a high level conversation with the manufacturers, all five of them, and the championship and the FIM, so that's where we are now," Carlos Ezpeleta told Ziggo.

The signs of resistance are already there. Speaking to GPOne.com's Matteo Aglio, Ducati Sporting Director pointedly highlighted the fact that Dorna had spoken to journalists before conferring with the manufacturers. No proposal had been made at the last meeting of the Grand Prix Commission on the Thursday before Assen, Ciabatti pointed out.

It had taken hard work for Ducati to become the dominant force in MotoGP, Ciabatti insisted. "We, like Aprilia and KTM, got where we are by working our ***es off and following the regulations, while the two Japanese manufacturers couldn't keep up," the Ducati boss said. Ducati might be open to changes to the concessions system, but such changes would have to be generic, and apply to anyone who fell behind enough to require them, rather than tailored to the current needs of a particular manufacturer.

What's more, any change to the concessions system must be perceived as being fair. "We are open to evaluating a proposal, as long as it takes into account that it shouldn't excessively benefit those who haven't done their jobs as well as others," Ciabatti told GPOne.com.

There is a certain irony in Ducati raising objections to the concessions. The concessions system as it exists today came about largely in response to Gigi Dall'Igna's decision in 2014 to enter the factory team as a so-called Open Class entry. This was the successor to the CRT class, which helped to expand the grid with tuned production-based engines in prototype chassis. (For a fuller history of the change, see this story I wrote about the revolutionary decade in MotoGP, from 2009-2019).

Three months after joining Ducati as the head of Ducati Corse, Gigi Dall'Igna announced at the Sepang test in 2014 that Ducati would be racing under Open Class rules for the 2014 season. This would allow them to develop the engine during the season, allow then 12 instead of 5 engines a season, and allow Ducati unlimited testing. However, they would be forced to use the spec Magneti Marelli ECU software and hardware.

In response to this announcement, Dorna hastily introduced a new class of entry, a manufacturer with concessions, which allowed similar freedoms, which the manufacturer would lose as they became more successful. Ducati, in turn, offered help with the Magneti Marelli software. These rules were then formalized at the start of the following contract period in 2016, when MotoGP switched to spec ECU software and hardware and Michelin tires.

Thanks to the concessions Ducati had in 2014 and 2015, Ducati went from struggling to be in the top eight to being regular podium contenders, getting their first win in 2016. In 2017, Andrea Dovizioso pushed Marc Marquez all the way to the final race at Valencia for the title, winning six races along the way.

Both Aprilia and KTM have similar stories. Aprilia went from tail enders to championship contenders by long and persistent work, and the ability to introduce new engines and keep testing through the season. It took until 2022 for Aleix Espargaro to win a race, but the Aprilia RS-GP is now a very competitive machine. KTM, likewise, went from struggling for top tens to winning races in 2020, and after a difficult season in 2022, are now right back in contention, and a highly prized seat for potential newcomers.

So it might be seen as churlish if the European manufacturers were to refuse to give the Japanese factories a chance to catch up. Aprilia, Ducati, and KTM may point to the fact, highlighted by Carlos Ezpeleta, that the Japanese factories have already lost their chance of concessions for 2024. With Alex Rins' victory in Austin, Honda forfeited their shot at concessions. Fabio Quartararo's third place did the same for Yamaha.

It is worth reiterating here that only results scored in the Sunday grand prix races count toward concessions. In theory, a factory could win every single sprint race, yet still gain concessions (or not lose them, if they had them) if they didn't manage to get on the podium on Sundays. There is a non-zero chance of a rider winning every sprint race and becoming champion despite not getting on the podium in a single grand prix.

Finishing first in all 20 sprint races and fourth in all 20 grand prix would net you 500 points out of a theoretical total of 740. Extrapolate Pecco Bagnaia's points total of 194 after the eighth round at Assen and he is on course for a total of 485 points. That, in itself is reason for addressing the concessions system. It is another area where the sprint race has created unintended consequences.

Of course, the bigger question is whether concessions would make any difference to the Japanese factories. The evidence so far is that the issue is not one of the amount of testing Honda and Yamaha do, nor their ability to update their engines throughout the year (though in both cases, that might help). The bigger issue is their approach to racing, development, and above all, risk.

Alberto Puig acknowledged as much when I asked him about it in the press conference held on Sunday morning, after Marc Marquez announced he would not be racing in the Dutch TT that day. "The European manufacturers in their recent years were very aggressive," Puig said. "They took a lot of risks. Risk means that you can make mistakes, but they accept the mistakes and probably the Japanese tradition is more conservative and with the new regulations, they should [take risks] probably, based on the results. Because it's not so difficult to see the results are the parameter or the indicator of what's going on."

The problem was one of how the Japanese factories approached racing, Puig said. "So it's clear that they have to probably change a little bit the approach. I mean they have very, very good things. But probably they have to change the approach and probably be more reactive than they used to be. True is that it's more difficult to be fast or react fast if you are in Japan than if you are in Europe. But finally, I think what you said, it’s like this. I mean we have to try to be faster and react faster."

It may seem that Honda, for example, has been more willing to take risks recently. At the end of last year, we saw HRC bring a new swingarm produced by Kalex. And at the Jerez test, a frame produced by Kalex made its debut on the Honda RC213V. But the process by which they reached the Honda garages is not as radical as it looks from the outside.

The swingarm and frame were designed to Honda specifications, and produced by Kalex to those specs. Once produced, they were flown to Japan to be put on a chassis dyno and stretched, squeezed, rotated and vibrated to be sure that the parts were within spec and would not break when put under load. Only then were they handed to the Honda test team, just in time for the Jerez test.

Contrast that with KTM. The Austrian factory has a 3D metal printer which they take to the track. If the engineering team believe that a particular part needs adjusting, they can make that change in a CAD model, and print the part ready to be tried the next morning.

That may be an extreme example, but there are a thousand different parallels to that process. The Japanese approach is to design, verify, test, reverify, retest, and only hand those parts off to the contracted riders when they are certain they will both work and provide some benefit. The European approach is to bring stuff to the track, give it to the riders to test, keep it if it works or throw it away if it is a disaster.

Ducati, in particular, has been incredibly smart in they way they use the Pramac satellite team as a testbed for development. Johann Zarco's bike currently, and Jack Miller's bike when he was in the Pramac squad, is consistently the most interesting bike on the grid. Last year, Zarco was testing the front ride-height device, before it was banned. In 2018, Miller was the first rider to try Ducati's holeshot device, and then the ride-height device, those parts only being handed off to the factory bikes once Ducati were sure they worked.

By contrast, Japanese factories have regarded satellite teams as a profit center rather than an R&D testbed. Though both Alex Rins and Takaaki Nakagami have 2023-spec bikes, they have older frames, only getting new parts when the factory riders are convinced they work, and HRC has produced enough parts. When Yamaha had satellite bikes, the principle was to wheel the factory bikes into the satellite garage at the end of the season for the satellite team to use the following year.

This, then, is where the Japanese factories must change. Concessions may or may not help Honda and Yamaha improve, but they can only test if the factory brings new parts. Shortening the period from design to testing would already be a huge step. Shortening the period from design to racing would be even bigger.

What Honda and Yamaha also need to understand is that MotoGP has changed radically since 2019. Aerodynamic has gone from a small addition to a central part of the design philosophy. Ducati, KTM, and Aprilia are designing their motorcycles with aerodynamics as an integral part of the overall package. Honda and Yamaha are designing racing motorcycles, then adding on wings to try to improve downforce.

There are signs of progress from the Japanese manufacturers. At Assen, Stefan Bradl told us that he had three tests lined up for July and August, at Misano and Jerez. And Yamaha team manager Maio Meregalli told me for the Paddock Pass Podcast Paddock Notes show that the team had pushed for an extra test for Cal Crutchlow, and Yamaha Japan had agreed to organize it.

There is still a long way to go for Yamaha and Honda. It is far from certain that Dorna can persuade the European factories to change the concessions system in time for the 2024 season. And it even further from certain that more testing and engine development are all that is standing between the Japanese factories and success.

If Yamaha and Honda are to be competitive again, they need to radically revise their approach to MotoGP, to development, and to racing. Changing cultures is a massively more difficult proposition than changing parts of a motorcycle.

In this, there is a lesson to be had from history. In 1953, Honda founder Soichiro Honda decided that the factory that bore his name should go racing, and chose the 1954 Isle of Man TT as the race where Honda would make its grand prix debut.

In preparation for this, Honda sent rider Mikio Omura and engineer Toshiji Baba to an international road race in São Paulo, Brazil. Omura was up against European bikes with twice the horsepower and much more top speed. The Japanese rider finished thirteenth out of 25 in the race.

That experience duly chastened Soichiro Honda. The company founder was proud that Omura had finished the race, but was now all too aware of the scale of the challenge ahead. On March 20th, 1954, Soichiro Honda published a declaration that the factory would be entering the Isle of Man TT that year. In it, he included the following section:

"Now, however, reports on the recent international motorcycle race held in São Paulo have provided me with detailed information on the situation in the countries of Europe and America. I had thought that I was seeing the world with a fair degree of realism, without being caught up in fixed ideas, but now I realize that, after all, I have been blinded by my excessive feeling for Japan in its present situation. Even now, the world is advancing at tremendous speed.

Conversely, however, as I have always felt, I am filled with an abundant, unshakable confidence that I can win. The fighting spirit that is my nature will no longer allow me to continue turning away.

Now that we are equipped with a production system in which I have absolute confidence, the time of opportunity has arrived. I have reached the firm decision to enter the TT Races next year."

If Honda, and indeed Yamaha, can recover some of that spirit, there may be hope for them yet.

If you enjoyed this article, please consider supporting MotoMatters.com. You can help by either taking out a subscription, supporting us on Patreon, by making a donation, or contributing via our GoFundMe page. You can find out more about subscribing to MotoMatters.com here.