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Buriram MotoGP Saturday Subscriber Notes: Bagnaia vs Martin Round 1, And A Ducati Lockout

By David Emmett |

The sprint race at Buriram may prove to be a momentous occasion in MotoGP. Two important barriers were broken. One that gets broken every year in MotoGP. And one that hasn't seen its like since 1996.

The most important barrier was Jorge Martin extending his lead to 22 points over Pecco Bagnaia. That means that with three Sunday GPs and two sprint races left, Bagnaia needs help from another rider if he is to defend his title. If Bagnaia wins all five races, and Martin finishes second, Bagnaia would outscore Martin by 21 points, 1 point short.

That doesn't mean that the title is in the bag for Martin. Far from it. The chance that Jorge Martin finishes second in every sprint race and GP is about as slim as Pecco Bagnaia winning all five races. Enea Bastianini and Marc Márquez have proven they can win races and end up on the podium, playing a role in determining the outcome.

Both Bagnaia and Martin are prone to mistakes - though Bagnaia leads Martin in this area by 7 to 4, depending on how you count it - and rain could upset the apple cart in Sepang, Valencia, or perhaps even on Sunday in Buriram. With 99 points on the table, in theory the championship is still wide open.

And yet a threshold has been passed. Pecco Bagnaia no longer has his destiny in his own hands. For a motorcycle racer who, like all elite athletes, dedicates a vast amount of energy to controlling as much of his fate as possible, this is a psychological blow. Yet more pressure to add to the pile.

Bagnaia tried to dismiss that pressure. "It's true that Jorge can finish second every race and still be champion," the Ducati Lenovo rider said. "But I'm quite sure that he will not finish all the races second. He can win, or finish fifth or crash. So it depends a lot."

Bagnaia reiterated that he still had a large measure of control over his own fate. "We have to be more focused on our results and try to be more perfect, because today I was thinking to be more competitive and then in the race I was more struggling," he said.

What had happened? It wasn't being pushed wide by Martin at Turn 1 which had cost him, Bagnaia said. He had quickly seized second place again. "It was more gone after two or three laps, understanding that my feeling was not ideal, like it was this morning. I was struggling a lot to be competitive on the braking. My fastest sectors during the weekend were Sector 1 and Sector 3, and today I was losing there. So we have to analyze this afternoon in the box."

This is a common refrain from Pecco Bagnaia. Conditions change slightly between the morning and the afternoon, between one day and the next, and his feeling with the bike disappears. At Buriram, the track temperature on Saturday afternoon was nearly 10°C hotter than in the morning practice, up at 46°C, close to the point where the asphalt starts to become greasy. Humidity dropped too, also by nearly 10%. That is going to change how the bike feels, how the tires dig into the asphalt, and the grip and feedback they give.

Bagnaia's incredibly sensitivity is both a strength and a weakness. His crew chief Cristian Gabarrini explained the benefits and disadvantages of Bagnaia's incredible feel when I interviewed him about it at the Sepang test before the 2023 season. "Sometimes, too much! Because he feels everything. In this, he is very very similar to Dani [Pedrosa] or to Jorge [Lorenzo]."

Gabarrini, who was also Casey Stoner's crew chief while he was in MotoGP, compared Bagnaia's feel to Stoner's. "Casey was very sensitive, but he was able to forget and keep pushing," Gabarrini said. Bagnaia found that more difficult. "This guy can ride over the problems, but in his mind, all the problems are there. He already knows that sooner or later the problem will come."

That had enormous benefits when you are trying to find ways to go faster, Gabarrini explained. "This is a very very good thing, especially when you have to develop a new bike. Last season, during many races, he changed his riding style to save the tire and to face the coming of these kinds of problems. More than the other guys. That's why he was so consistent on the lap time from the beginning to the end of the race."

18
2024
MotoGP
Valencia, Spain
Ducati
CormacGP
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Comments

Pecco's problem is that it's not just 2 points. It is a lead opening by 2 points when the potential was, although unlikely, the lead reducing by 12 points. That 12 point difference is history, gone, never to return, 12 points less. Martin only has to shadow Pecco now. If he finished second to Pecco's 1st, all good. If he finishes 3rd to Pecco's 2nd, even better and so on. With Martin's current pace compared to Pecco, that might not be too big a stretch. Pecco needs to find his Motegi form again, then a Marc or Enea can do him a favour by getting between him and Jorge. On the form of the last two races, he's not going to always score big differences. Unless Jorge bins it. 

I believe Acosta will learn a ton this season and come on strong next year. A rookie pushing a bike past its limit isn't something you find often. Just gotta wonder if KTM will come good as well.

At least this is the last year of top 8 Ducati lockouts, for whatever that's worth.

I think Acosta is trying to put the KTM where it currently doesn't belong. Early season looked good but Ducati pulled away. Hats off to him for trying. Reminds me of Marquez trying to keep Honda at the sharp end as an 8 time champion. Similar mistakes minus the rookie tag. 

The fact that Martin struggles with heat is a major factor why I think he might suffer on an Aprilia next year. 

But yes, let's see how it goes.

So if I understand correctly, he got 2 warnings for the turn 7 infringements.

Well then I don’t see why going wide in turn 1 at lap 1 is not seen as an advantage gained. By doing so, you’re able to keep the trottle more or less open and not lose that much time. While in order to stay on track, in theory, he would have had to lose a lot more speed and therefore positions. That simply didn’t happen.

For me it should have counted as a first infringement, the first turn 7 being the second. Probably it would have simply resulted in a more cautious approach to that turn earlier. We don’t want penalties to decide the outcome of a race do we.

But at least it seems more correct to me that way.


I always do the grass/gravel analogy. If it wasn’t asphalt, a time loss would have been inevitable and far greater. So using the off track asphalt is by definition an advantage.

 

 

Lap 1 and especially lap 1 turn 1 are treated differently. The only way for it to be counted or penalised is if the rider gains an obvious advantage. Yes, you could say that not losing x number of positions is an advantage or a lack of disadvantage but that's how they do it. A good example of why would be turn 1 in Austria. For the pack to get through that turn off the start, some riders will likely exceed track limits. They would rather riders ran wide, if they have to and avoid a collision. Better than a rider falling ahead of the pack. Martin says he had the choice of a collision with Pecco or coming off the brakes and running wide. As he came back across the kerb he got a big handful of wheelie and that was his run to turn 2/3 screwed. He lost 5 or 6 positions. Possibly it's better, less bunching of more cautious riders.

Absolutely WaveyD, I was thinking about Austria while writing my previous post. It’s the most blatant one and yes, the point about allowing a transgression to avoid collisions is a valid one when it comes to safety. But it doesn’t sit right 100% with me.

You’ll have (and you can see this every time in all 3 classes by the way they approach/take it) guys who chose not to make the corner, who have decided that even before the race if the start evolves into scenario x,y or z. There is a systematic exploit of that lap 1 rule.

I also don’t feel like it should be a general rule for all tracks.

In the case of Jorge yesterday, he was the only one going wide. That’s one. And the disadvantage is debateable. That’s two. Both add to me not liking all of it 100%. But it comes mainly from having to see similar things a bit too often especially with purpose-built tracks or purpose-added (car) run-offs or simply MotoGP going to tracks that are not suited for MotoGP.