MotoMatters.com | Kropotkin Thinks

I am not a fan of the Red Bull Ring at Spielberg. It is an overly simplistic circuit – a bunch of straights with an omega in the middle to prevent it from being a basic trapezoid layout, stuck up against a hillside. Because it is basically three long straights and an extended left hander, speeds reached are high, and there is very little runoff. Add in a couple of blind crests where riders have a tendency to crash – the exit of Turn 1, the exit of Turn 3 – and you have a recipe for disaster.

That recipe came terrifyingly close to completion at Turn 3 in 2020. Johann Zarco clipped the front wheel of Franco Morbidelli's Yamaha on the way up the hill toward Turn 3. The bikes were traveling at such a speed that both Zarco's Ducati and Morbidelli's M1 shot across the track at Turn 3, Morbidelli's bike passing in between the Yamahas of Maverick Viñales and Valentino Rossi, Zarco's Ducati flying just over the head of Maverick Viñales.

In response, first a wall was put in at the end of the gravel trap on the entry to Turn 3, and then last year, a chicane was added two thirds of the way up toward Turn 3. That slowed the entry to Turn 3 massively, making it a much less perilous approach. But it also removed the old Turn 2, which is a loss both to the riders and to photographers.

Turn 2 was one of the most physical sections of track on the calendar, a place where you could see just how much physical effort went into stopping the bike from over 300 km/h and then pitching it into the tight right hander of Turn 3.

"Along with Mugello, it's probably the most a**-clenching moment of the championship," Jack Miller told us last year. "Because you come out of that corner, you hug the white line as much as you can going down the straight. And then you tip it left and the thing would start doing this and you're doing like 340km/h!"

"It’s always, especially the first couple laps getting into the zone, and there's that wall on the inside that you were sort of aiming towards!" The thrill of danger was always mixed with real fear, Miller explained. "You're going to miss that because it was cool, but you're not going miss it when you’re in a slipstream, absolutely out of control, tank slapper and trying to go brakes that aren't there anymore."

That sort of sums up the paradox of the Red Bull Ring. On the one hand, it is set against the spectacular background of Alpine mountains and forests, but the layout is deeply uninspiring. The facilities at the circuit are second to none, for teams, for journalists, and for a lot of fans. But it is the longest walk of the year to get from the media center to the paddock, so snatching a quick word with someone is a massive trek.

The spectacular setting has a couple of other drawbacks too. That Alpine mountainside is in the middle of nowhere, so accommodation is extremely limited, and consequently mind-bendingly expensive. And as an Italian journalist told me when I told him I would be riding down to Mugello through Austria, it always rains in Austria. He was not wrong. On the four occasions I have ridden a motorcycle in Austria, I have always ended up soaked to the bone.

But the worst thing about the Red Bull Ring is that it produces such spectacularly good racing. The first outing saw the factory Ducatis go head to head, with Andrea Dovizioso finally losing out to Andrea Iannone after Iannone gambled on the medium rear tire instead of the hard. In 2017, 2018, and 2019, Marc Marquez lost out in last corner battles with Ducatis, with Dovizioso in 2017 and 2019, and Jorge Lorenzo in 2018. The Red Bull ring remains one of the few tracks where Marc Marquez hasn't won a race.

In 2020, both races held at the track took two attempts, after massive crashes caused the races to be halted. In addition to the incident between Franco Morbidelli and Johann Zarco, there was also Maverick Viñales' brakes failing, and the Yamaha slamming into the airfence at Turn 1 and catching fire. The second race turned into a thriller, with Miguel Oliveira taking the win for Tech3, ahead of Jack Miller and Pol Espargaro.

There were more red flags in 2021, when KTM wildcard Dani Pedrosa lost the front on the exit of Turn 3, and Aprilia wildcard Lorenzo Savadori, who was following close behind, hit Pedrosa's bike causing the KTM RC16 to catch fire. Pramac Ducati's Jorge Martin took his first MotoGP victory there.

Then there was perhaps the maddest race of all. The second round at the Red Bull Ring saw rain start to fall around the three quarter mark. A battle of nerves unfolded, as riders all waited for each other to pit and change to a bike with wet tires. Except for Brad Binder, who stayed out on slicks, and in a display of riding that was both breathtakingly skilled and intensely comical, he slid and slithered his way to victory.

By contrast, last year's race, where Pecco Bagnaia held off an incredibly strong charge from Fabio Quartararo, after a gearing change to cope with the chicane gave the Yamaha just enough to extra acceleration to stick with the Ducati, the Frenchman coming up just short against Bagnaia.

If the crashes and close finishes weren't enough, the Red Bull Ring has also managed to produce plenty of other drama as well, both on track and off it. Obviously, given their association with Austrian soda company Red Bull, KTM chose the Spielberg circuit to launch their MotoGP project at the first race in 2016.

There was less positive news for the brand in 2019, when it emerged late on Sunday night after the race that Johann Zarco had asked to be released from his contract with KTM halfway through the first season of a two-year deal. That had always been a curious affair, Zarco signing a deal negotiated by his then manager Laurent Fellon at the end of 2017, Zarco's first year in MotoGP. Three races later, he was off the bike.

The Zarco affair had started rolling after another bombshell blew up that same weekend, when it emerged that Jorge Lorenzo, then riding the Repsol Honda, had been speaking to Ducati about replacing Jack Miller in Pramac. Miller, in turn, had been approached about taking Zarco's place, but that all fell through when Lorenzo pledged to honor the second year of his contract with Repsol Honda. He didn't, of course, choosing instead to retire at the end of 2019, kicking off yet more drama over his replacement.

Then there was Yamaha. The Japanese manufacturer had already drawn attention in Austria in 2018, when the Monster Energy Yamaha team held an exceptional debrief where Kouji Tsuya, the YZR-M1 project leader at the time, formally apologized to riders Valentino Rossi and Maverick Viñales for the lack of performance of the Yamaha at the Red Bull Ring. The M1 was getting slaughtered on acceleration along Spielberg's many straights. Tsuya was soon moved out of the MotoGP project, and the M1 gained a lot of drive grip and acceleration soon after.

The real drama came in 2021. Maverick Viñales stalled his bike on the grid for the restart of the Styrian round, and pushed it into pit lane to start the race. That left the electronics confused, and Viñales frustrated. The Spaniard vented his frustration by over-revving the Yamaha all around the track, leaving the bike in fifth instead of shifting into sixth, the bike hitting the limiter everywhere.

Viñales was suspended for the Austrian round in 2021, held a week later at the same circuit, then released from his contract even earlier than already agreed at Assen, forcing Yamaha to put a string of replacement riders on the grid for the rest of the year.

That same weekend saw the first rumors of problems for the other Yamaha squad. Title sponsor Petronas withdrew backing from the satellite Yamaha squad, and Razlan Razali and Johan Stigefelt fell out over ownership of the team and the grid slots. Razali won that battle, taking the MotoGP slots and setting up the RNF Racing team. Which appears to be coming good, with Miguel Oliveira's outstanding ride at Silverstone last time out to claim fourth place.

If there is an upside to all this drama, it is that the Red Bull Ring has been instrumental in pushing forward technological advances, not just in terms of the bikes, but in terms of safety. The extreme demands of the Red Bull Ring – along with Motegi the toughest circuit for braking on the calendar, even after the introduction of the chicane at Turn 2 – make extraordinary requirements of the brakes at the track. That much was obvious when Maverick Viñales boiled his brake fluid in 2020 by using the old calipers.

To counter that, Brembo told all of the teams to switch to the new, finned calipers, and in 2021, introduced new 355mm brake discs with slotted fins for cooling, adding the same fins to their 340mm carbon discs. Brembo claim the brakes are dissipating up to 120kW of energy per disc at the Red Bull Ring, which is a lot of heat to get rid off when the brakes are being used for 34% of the lap.

The incident between Pedrosa and Savadori in 2021 prompted further advances in safety. Dorna and the FIM have been working closely with circuits to allow better communication between bikes and Race Direction, introducing duplex transponders to allow dashboard messages in 2018. With fallen bikes on the track in 2021, and with an eye on the death of Swiss Moto3 rider Jason Dupasquier at Mugello, MotoGP is now working on a crash detection system which warns riders directly of a danger on the track ahead of them. The idea is to assist the marshals and add an extra warning to the yellow flags, giving the riders a better chance of reacting to a hidden danger.

All of this, then, perhaps explains my love-hate relationship with the Red Bull Ring at Spielberg in Austria. The track may not be much, but it always produces drama, both on and off the track.

So what can we expect from this weekend? The Red Bull Ring has historically been a Ducati track, the circuit playing to all of the Desmosedici's strengths. It was the track where Ducati got their first win since Casey Stoner left the Italian factory at the end of 2010, Andrea Iannone beating factory Ducati teammate Andrea Dovizioso in 2016. Dovizioso won three races on the Ducati there, in 2017, 2019, and 2020, while Jorge Martin and Pecco Bagnaia won in 2021 and 2022 respectively.

Martin and Bagnaia have to be the hot favorites to win this weekend as well. Martin is phenomenal around the Red Bull Ring, and his strengths over a single lap make him the rider to beat for pole position. Translating that into a win in Saturday's sprint race should be straightforward.

On Sunday, though, Bagnaia is the rider to watch. The Italian kickstarted his 2022 title challenge with wins at Silverstone and Austria, and is coming off a second place at the British Grand Prix this year. The reigning champion is starting to get into the winning groove since Mugello, and with a comfortable lead of 41 points in the championship, can focus on riding and not have to worry too much about challengers. Even if Jorge Martin is his closest challenger right now.

But not by much. Martin leads Marco Bezzecchi by just 6 points, after the Mooney VR46 crashed out of Silverstone while chasing Pecco Bagnaia for the lead. Bezzecchi has shown incredible speed this year, and the mistakes he has made have been forgivable. Spielberg would be a good place for him to seek redemption.

If anyone is to challenge the Ducati hegemony in Austria, it is surely the manufacturer for which this is the home race. KTM have already had success here, with Miguel Oliveira winning that memorable battle to the line in 2020, and Brad Binder's unforgettable wet performance in 2021. The KTM RC16 took a step back in 2022, but the arrival of Jack Miller at the head of a bunch of Ducati engineers has helped make this year's bike much more competitive. It gets off the line as if fired out of a gun, and it can qualify well now too.

There will be a lot of pressure on both Brad Binder and Jack Miller to perform well at Spielberg, but both riders have relatively strong records here. The KTM RC16 is fast, it accelerates well, and it brakes well. Ducati should be worried.

What about Aprilia? Aleix Espargaro's victory at Silverstone shows the RS-GP is a more competitive package than last year. It will need to be given the Aprilia's poor record at the Austrian track. Over the years, the Noale manufacturer has struggled to even get anywhere near the top ten, let alone compete. Aleix Espargaro's sixth place finish last year, 11 seconds behind Bagnaia, is the brand's best result in Austria.

Can we expect something more from the Aprilia riders? The 2023 line up is very strong, with Espargaro and Maverick Viñales on 2023 RS-GPs and Miguel Oliveira back to fitness on last year's bike in the RNF Aprilia team. But the strengths of the Aprilia – strong top speed allied to corner speed – don't play well at the Red Bull Ring. The vast lefts of Turns 5, 6, 7, and 8 are where the Aprilia could benefit, and the changes to the clutch which allow the bike to get off the line better will make a difference too. But the lap time is made at the Red Bull Ring in acceleration and on the brakes, two areas where the Aprilia is competent, but not the best.

Ambitions for both Yamaha and Honda are muted in Austria. Yamaha have perhaps the best hope of a strong result, the M1 having traditionally done well around Spielberg. Fabio Quartararo's battle with Pecco Bagnaia in 2022 was one of the best rides of the Frenchman's career, Quartararo using the strengths of the Yamaha to good effect, helped, as explained, by lower gearing through the chicane.

Expect Fabio Quartararo to sport the new aero he debuted at Silverstone here. Aero is of limited benefit at the fast and flowing British circuit, but it is essential to a good lap time at the Red Bull Ring. The Yamaha had good mechanical grip in the past, though the 2023 engine's aggressive nature seems to have detracted from that. Perhaps the combination of more aero and a bit more weight on the rear will help the Yamaha find more drive out of corners.

Finally, to Honda. HRC are in full experimentation mode, with Marc Marquez stating explicitly at Silverstone that he was riding to the limit, but not pushing over it as he has in the past. Expect all of Honda's riders at the Red Bull Ring to be in the same mode, working toward the 2024 season rather than trying to win anything now.

Both Repsol Honda riders have the new aero tried by Takaaki Nakagami at Silverstone, and they have the benefit of the data collected by the LCR Honda rider at the British Grand Prix. Nakagami explained that the greatly increased downforce needed the bike to be rebalanced, with the weight changed around to get extra grip. Rear grip has been a problem for the RC213V in recent years, so perhaps Nakagami's experiments will help Honda start to find it at a track where it is critical.

What can we expect from this weekend at the Red Bull Ring? Going by past races, a lot of spectacle, a lot of drama, a lot of discussions about safety, and the ever-present threat of a torrential rain shower. Most likely, we will see Pecco Bagnaia and Ducati further strengthen their grip on the 2023 MotoGP championship. But KTM, in the shape of Brad Binder and Jack Miller, might just upset the Borgo Panigale applecart.

Of course, it's the Red Bull Ring, and to paraphrase a truism, anything could go wrong, and probably will.

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