MotoMatters.com | Kropotkin Thinks

On the eve of the official Sepang IRTA MotoGP test, we are leaving the realm of blind guesswork and heading toward the world of speculation. We've seen the liveries, heard from the riders, even in at least one case seen the actual bikes. We've seen the times from the shakedown test, where test riders, rookies, and riders for teams with concessions have had up to three days on track.

(Many choose not to do all three days, as three days of shakedown and three days of official test takes a heavy toll, even for MotoGP riders in prime physical condition. There is no substitute for the brutal forces a 300hp, 157kg MotoGP machine impose on a rider.)

We know a little more from the shakedown test - times were fast, Fabio Quartararo two tenths of a second off his qualifying lap for November's race, and Ai Ogura posting impressive lap times throughout - but it is still hard to make a comparison with last year. Is the track in better shape? Is the grip better? Are the bikes faster?

Devoid of meaning?

That's what the IRTA test will tell us, we hope. Even then, the times are not predictive: in the 18 official tests held at Sepang since 2011 (there used to be two preseason tests here until 2016) the rider topping the timesheets has gone on to win the championship only twice: Casey Stoner in 2011, and Marc Márquez in 2014.

But Sepang is a very good place to put the bikes through their paces. Two huge straights starting and ending in slow corners, testing acceleration and braking. Tight sections like the switchback from Turn 1 through Turn 2, or the hairpin at Turn 9 (where Pecco Bagnaia managed to throw away a sprint race and put the title pretty much out of reach last year). Fast, sweeping corners on the edge of the tire, like Turn 3 or Turns 5 and 6. There is pretty much a little bit of everything.

And the manufacturers come to Sepang slightly better prepared than normal. With the terribly tragedy that befell Valencia, with flooding causing massive loss of life and damage, the last round of 2024 was moved to Barcelona, along with the final test.

Better prepared

That pleased riders and engineers. "This track is better for more than one thing. Straight, zero grip, layout," Pecco Bagnaia told us at test in Barcelona last November. "So, Valencia is a very particular track and it’s not very helpful to test a new bike. This track is. Also the level of the grip is that low helps to understand better the electronics. So, it’s better."

If there's a downside to Sepang, it is the heat. Though the weather is favorable - you can pretty much guarantee three long days of running, with only a brief break around 4pm for the customary tropical downpour - the heat starves the engines of oxygen and softens the power delivery. It makes throttle response that little bit kinder, and with bikes balanced on the razor's edge, the riders can find themselves falling off the wrong side into hard-to-manage power delivery on a chilly morning at Le Mans or Silverstone.

Getting the engine right is even more important at this year's test. With engines frozen for two years at the first GP in Buriram, it will be a long two years for Aprilia, Ducati, or KTM if they get it wrong. Honda and Yamaha, having concessions, are free to keep testing.

We'll get to what each factory needs to fix in a moment, but first, we have three rookies this year. Trackhouse Aprilia's Ai Ogura and Gresini Ducati's Fermin Aldeguer rode all three days, while LCR Idemitsu Honda's Somkiat Chantra did just the first two days. Ogura finished just over four tenths off the best lap of fastest rider Fabio Quartararo, while Aldeguer was six tenths off the factory Monster Energy Yamaha rider.