MotoMatters.com | Kropotkin Thinks

It has been three long days of testing, and a lot of work, for me as a journalist as well as for the riders and the teams. Of course, I did my work from the comfort of an air-conditioned press room, which made it a fraction easier than riding a 300 horsepower motorcycle as fast as possible in temperatures of well over 30°C.

So no long and detailed analysis tonight. Plenty of time for that in the coming days. For now, here are my initial reactions to what we saw and heard at the Sepang test.

Ducati's dilemma

There can be no doubt that the Ducati Desmosedici GP24 is still an outstanding motorcycle. The three GP24s were in the top four or five on the first two days of the test, and Alex Márquez bettered Pecco Bagnaia's time from last year at the Sepang test by nearly two tenths of a second.

So can Ducati make a better motorcycle? Even Ducati aren't sure. Both Pecco Bagnaia and Marc Márquez are yet to be fully convinced that the GP25 engine is an improvement on the GP24. It has a bit more power, delivers it more smoothly, but it loses out in braking. And there is more time to be gained (or in this case, lost) in braking than in acceleration.

The factory Ducati riders spent almost all the test on the GP24 aero package, as well as the GP24 frame, while Ducati engineers tried swapping out all sorts of different parts in different configurations to try to improve the bike.

The impression we are left with is that the GP25 will end up being more of a hybrid than an evolution. They may even stick with the GP24 engine, which Bagnaia believed still had more potential that could be extracted.

Watching trackside, both Pecco Bagnaia and Marc Márquez look fantastically comfortable on the bike. Bagnaia, especially, looks at complete one with the Desmosedici, like he knows it like the back of his hand. The 2025 championship will be decided between these two. And at this moment, I wouldn't like to pick which one.

The strength of the GP24 is a positive sign for the riders stuck with the year-old bike this season. Franco Morbidelli looked more like the Morbidelli of old, aided by having a preseason free of injury. Alex Márquez shows that at the tracks he loves, like Sepang, he can still do something special. If there were 22 races at Sepang, he'd be a contender. Or if there were 12 at Sepang, 5 at Barcelona, and 5 at Aragon.

Fermín Aldeguer showed his potential, and adapted quickly to MotoGP (admittedly a lot easier when you are on the best bike on the grid). He is no Pedro Acosta, but on the basis of this test,j he will cause established riders more trouble than they would like.

Yamaha rising

If it was just a single lap on a single day, I would not be paying that much attention to Yamaha. But Fabio Quartararo has been consistently fast throughout the weekend, finishing third fastest, setting his fastest ever lap around Sepang, and improving his time from Q2 last year by 0.868 seconds.

The new Yamaha has more power, good top speed, is very strong in braking, and more importantly, can now do a very fast qualifying lap, the biggest defect of the 2024 machine. The 2025 M1 has a new frame, new engine, new swingarm, and slightly different aero, and is working very well.

The gap between Quartararo and the other riders is large, and is proof if you needed it that the 2021 world champion is a rider with something extra, that allows him to do things lesser riders can't. The 2025 Yamaha M1 isn't quite good enough to allow Quartararo to take on the might of the Ducati Lenovo team, but it's good enough to put him in the battle for the podium on most weekends.

Quartararo remains slightly skeptical, given the amount of rubber on the track - there was basically no rain at all for three days, unusual for a Sepang test - as that might be disguising the grip problem the Yamaha still has. But it's clear that the drastic change in strategy started back in early 2022 is starting to pay off.

The addition of Pramac as a satellite structure comes at the perfect time. The best satellite squad on the grid, with two experienced veterans, with full factory support and able to immediately contribute to development. The nature of the Yamaha, as a user-friendly machine, has helped the adaptation of Miguel Oliveira and Jack Miller, Miller telling us that he almost immediately felt comfortable on the bike. It feels like home, and that makes it easier to push.

Pecco Bagnaia identified Yamaha as rising up the ranks of challengers. "I think we will have a switch in terms of who will be behind Ducati this season. Yamaha did a very good job," he said. Hard not to disagree with that sentiment.

Honda - righting the ship

As with Yamaha, Honda's efforts are finally paying off, the bike making a clear step forward in terms of one-lap speed at least. The front end of the RC213V is excellent, Honda have improved the turning, and the riders have gained a huge amount of confidence. Johann Zarco was over four tenths quicker than at the race weekend last November, Luca Marini seven tenths faster, and Joan Mir improved by a massive 1.339 seconds.

That improvement is clearly visible on the face of Joan Mir, who looked thoroughly miserable for most of 2024. "I was worried last year that I was not able to make the bike turn. And if you don't turn, you can't really brake hard. I was not able to do it, and in this test I was. I enjoyed riding the bike." It has been a very long time since Mir last uttered those words.

There is still a mountain of work to do. The race pace of the Honda riders was still poor compared to the Ducatis. The bike still has no rear grip and is way down on horsepower (a cardinal sin for the Honda MOTOR Company, which prides itself on the engines it builds). They may still be at the bottom of the slope, but at least the trajectory is upward again.

KTM - little white lies

"Happy," was how Pedro Acosta summed up the test to journalists early on Friday evening. A face like thunder and body language that screamed simmering frustration suggested that the 20-year-old was not being completely frank with us. They had gotten through a huge amount of work and now needed to filter out the noise from the data and choose the parts that worked best, he said.

Again, Acosta's talent masks the real problem. The Red Bull KTM rider's pace during his sprint race simulation was a few hundredths behind that of Gresini Ducati rookie Fermín Aldeguer, and seven tenths off the pace of Alex and Marc Márquez. But in turn, his pace was nearly a second faster than his teammate Brad Binder's. That is not a good sign for KTM.

We won't even mention Maverick Viñales and Enea Bastianini. Viñales retains some of his trademark optimism, but Bastianini looks like a beaten man. Watching the Italian braking for Turn 1, he was struggling to get the bike stopped and rarely managing to take the same line. Braking is a problem for both Tech3 riders.

KTM look to be in a deep hole after the Sepang test. They will need to turn things around rapidly if they are to keep Pedro Acosta after this year. If, of course, they are allowed to continue to race.

Aprilia - the enigma

How competitive is Aprilia? With Jorge Martin missing, we honestly do not know. Marco Bezzecchi was happy after the test, and watching him from trackside he looked comfortable and fast. He still has work to do to adapt his riding style, but he is not a million miles away.

What to make of the times and development of the Aprilia? It is hard to tell. We only really have Bezzecchi's word, as Ai Ogura is still a rookie, though he appears to be adapting well to MotoGP. But I fear we will only really know where Aprilia stand after Jorge Martin has been back for a few races.

The crash that ruled Jorge Martin out of action was not down to a defective tire, Michelin motorsport boss Piero Taramasso explained to us. Yes, the exterior of the tire had been up to temperature, but it isn't the surface of the tire that generates the grip.

With data from the infrared sensor on the inside of the tire, which scans the interior surface to measure the temperature of the casing, Michelin could see that Martin's tire was 15°C below that of Marco Bezzecchi on the same lap, who was running the same tire. The tire casing gets much stiffer very quickly when it cools, and it is the deflection of a soft, heated casing which generates grip for the tires.

Though Taramasso did not say so in as many words, it is clear that the fault lies with Jorge Martin. Too eager to make amends for an early crash, he was pushing too fast on his first flying lap, on a tire that had lost temperature during the previous retrieval from the gravel. Martin was trying just a little bit too hard, too early.

It is understandable that Aprilia Racing CEO Massimo Rivola should try to shunt the blame for the crash onto an external supplier (and Michelin is a very useful scapegoat in this respect). It is his job to protect his star rider from criticism, to deflect attention from the team, and to protect the reputation of Aprilia and of the RS-GP MotoGP bike. But that does mean that you have to take certain statements with a grain or two of salt.

As I said, deeper analysis to follow, and that's it for now. But this is the way I see MotoGP after the first test at Sepang. Of course, I also reserve the right to change that opinion at the drop of a hat.

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