MotoMatters.com | Kropotkin Thinks

On the eve of the official Sepang IRTA MotoGP test, we are leaving the realm of blind guesswork and heading toward the world of speculation. We've seen the liveries, heard from the riders, even in at least one case seen the actual bikes. We've seen the times from the shakedown test, where test riders, rookies, and riders for teams with concessions have had up to three days on track.

(Many choose not to do all three days, as three days of shakedown and three days of official test takes a heavy toll, even for MotoGP riders in prime physical condition. There is no substitute for the brutal forces a 300hp, 157kg MotoGP machine impose on a rider.)

We know a little more from the shakedown test - times were fast, Fabio Quartararo two tenths of a second off his qualifying lap for November's race, and Ai Ogura posting impressive lap times throughout - but it is still hard to make a comparison with last year. Is the track in better shape? Is the grip better? Are the bikes faster?

Devoid of meaning?

It has been quite the day at the Sepang International Circuit. The first day of the official MotoGP test at Sepang and we are already three riders down. For the second consecutive year, Raul Fernandez has crashed during testing and ruled himself out of the remainder of the test, fracturing a metacarpal bone in his left hand, as well has his little toe. Fabio Di Giannantonio had a silly crash, landing a wheelie badly at the end of the day after doing his practice starts, and breaking his left collarbone.

But the biggest news is that Jorge Martin had a massive highside at Turn 2, after completing just a dozen laps. The force of the crash was so severe that he fractured the fifth metacarpal of his right hand and the third, fourth, and fifth metatarsals of his left foot. The injury on his right hand is to the head of the metacarpal, where the bone in the hand joins the bone of the little or pinky finger. The metatarsal bones are the long bones in his foot joining his ankle to his toes.

The injury to his right hand will probably rule the reigning world champion out for the Buriram test, which takes place next week, and will leave him to ride the fully homologated 2025 Aprilia RS-GP for the first time at the opening round of MotoGP in Buriram at the start of March.

The Blame Game

After the disaster of the first day of the Sepang MotoGP test, we got through the second day without losing another rider, reducing the rate of attrition to just 1.5 MotoGP riders out through injury a day. No doubt the massive crashes of Jorge Martin, Raul Fernandez, and Fabio Di Giannantonio had served as a useful warning of what is at stake in this preseason. But the conditions helped too.

It was a lot hotter on Thursday, and the sun drove air and track temperatures up much closer to what we would normally expect in Sepang. Yesterday's 38°C track temperatures were replaced by a much more usual 55°C. And also, nobody was much interested in using the medium rear, concentrating instead on the soft.

"I think the medium here is the same as Silverstone and Barcelona, but we struggle a lot to make it work," Fabio Quartararo told us. "The gap between the soft and the medium is too much and the drop is the same as the soft. So, I’m not using the medium any more, and I think everybody is using the soft."

A day relative free of drama - there were still more than a few crashes, including both Ducati Lenovo riders, though nothing serious - and a day on which the riders could focus on working. The heat kept a lot of riders in the garage for a couple of hours around 2pm, then a very brief rain shower chased everyone off the track again, but 15 minutes later work was underway again.

It has been three long days of testing, and a lot of work, for me as a journalist as well as for the riders and the teams. Of course, I did my work from the comfort of an air-conditioned press room, which made it a fraction easier than riding a 300 horsepower motorcycle as fast as possible in temperatures of well over 30°C.

So no long and detailed analysis tonight. Plenty of time for that in the coming days. For now, here are my initial reactions to what we saw and heard at the Sepang test.

Ducati's dilemma

There can be no doubt that the Ducati Desmosedici GP24 is still an outstanding motorcycle. The three GP24s were in the top four or five on the first two days of the test, and Alex Márquez bettered Pecco Bagnaia's time from last year at the Sepang test by nearly two tenths of a second.

So can Ducati make a better motorcycle? Even Ducati aren't sure. Both Pecco Bagnaia and Marc Márquez are yet to be fully convinced that the GP25 engine is an improvement on the GP24. It has a bit more power, delivers it more smoothly, but it loses out in braking. And there is more time to be gained (or in this case, lost) in braking than in acceleration.

The factory Ducati riders spent almost all the test on the GP24 aero package, as well as the GP24 frame, while Ducati engineers tried swapping out all sorts of different parts in different configurations to try to improve the bike.

Jorge Martin's crash in the first hour of the Sepang MotoGP test has caused tension between Aprilia and the official tire supplier Michelin. Martin suffered a huge highside in the first hour of the test, when his rear tire let go in Turn 2 and flicked him over the bike. He landed very heavily, fracturing a metacarpal bone in his right hand and three metatarsal bones in his left foot.

Martin has since had surgery to fix the metatarsal with a screw, and is set to miss the final preseason test at Buriram. He hopes to be fit for the opening round of MotoGP at Buriram to be held from February 28th to March 2nd. But that means he will start the 2025 MotoGP season and attempt to defend his title with just 13 laps under his belt so far this year, and having played almost no role in developing the 2025 Aprilia RS-GP he will be riding this season.

On the Wednesday evening, Aprilia CEO Massimo Rivola came into the media center to explain to journalists what Aprilia believed had happened. Though he did not accuse Michelin directly, he left little room for any other conclusions. "It was a bad crash for no reason, with no mistake on his side and no mistake on the bike’s side," Rivola said. Nor was it a cold tire. "The tires were in the right temperature and the right pressure. But we have no explanation in fact."

Out early

The WorldSBK paddock decamped to the Iberian Peninsula for four days of winter testing. Unfortunately, rain and wind followed the paddock from Jerez to Portimão. Teams were severely hampered with running at both tests and the majority could only use two days of running to try and get ready for the start of the coming campaign.

While the tests wasn’t as efficient as manufacturers would have hoped it certainly wasn’t a waste of time. The majority of the field felt that enough was done to be ready for Phillip Island, because we’ll have two days testing at the thrilling Australian venue, and a mid-March test at Portimão will allow them to get fully ready for the start of the European season at the Portuguese venue.

BMW’s talisman is back on track

After missing the Jerez test a week previously Toprak Razgatlioglu was back on track at Portimao. The Turkish rider arrived mid-afternoon on Monday and was immediately the centre of attention. Speaking to him as he left the garage he was relaxed but obviously concerned about his finger injury.

The MotoGP regulations allow for the teams and factories to have two official tests before the start of the season. The first is traditionally at Sepang, the second at the track where the opening round of the season is set to take place.

In theory, 2025 follows the same pattern. In practice, the second MotoGP test of the 2025 preseason is more of an extension of the first test than a completely separate entity. Since the riders packed up on Friday night, they have traveled to Thailand, had a day of rehearsing the MotoGP launch on Saturday, attended the huge official series launch in the center of the Thai capital Bangkok, a day off on Monday (though likely filled with sponsor obligations in an important market, especially for factory riders) and then a day to discuss the outcome of the Sepang test and the plan for the Buriram test on Tuesday, before taking to the Chang International Circuit for two days of testing on Wednesday and Thursday.

The final preseason test is a strange creature. Most of the work has already been done at the first test at Sepang. Parts have been tried, and either accepted for use or sent back for scrap. (The parts may be scrapped, but the ideas will be laid aside and the results used to make something better next time.) So there really is a lot less for the teams and factories to test.

Looking at pictures from Buriram, you would be hard pressed to see any new parts compared to the bikes used at Sepang. Or indeed new parts compared to the Barcelona test. As I wrote after Sepang, we are at the stage of MotoGP bike development where designs are converging on the most efficient aerodynamic shape. And we probably won't see any major changes until the new technical rules arrive in 2027.

"This test, these tests don't mean anything, but it means a lot in the same time," said Joan Mir on Thursday after the MotoGP test at Buriram had finished. Though the Honda HRC Castrol rider was talking about the progress made during the test rather the results, he has succinctly summed up precisely how to view the outcome of preseason testing for 2025.

The standings at the end of the Buriram test do not set the outcome of the 2025 MotoGP season in stone. But the times set and the work done do give a good indication of where everyone stands ahead of the first round of the season, and the paths they are headed down. The results of preseason testing should be taken seriously, but not literally.

So what can we say about the outcome of the Buriram tests? A few thoughts, spread over several articles. Starting with Ducati. Why did they revert to the GP24? And does that mean they are going backward?

While all eyes were on Ducati at the Buriram MotoGP test, especially because of the choice they faced between racing the GP25 or sticking with the GP24 and looking for improvements, it was easy to miss the other big stories on the grid. Stories which directly affect Ducati, as it happens. Because unlike last year, where Ducati pretty much had a free run at the MotoGP championship, it looks like the other manufacturers have made a big step in competitiveness.

Not enough to make betting on anyone other than Ducati winning the championship look extremely foolhardy. But enough to cause Ducati more than just inconvenience. MotoGP in 2025 does not look like being a one-horse race any longer.

Stepping up

It may sound strange, but Aprilia has come out of testing quite well, despite Jorge Martin injuring himself in the first couple of hours of the Sepang test. The bike is a big step forward, which I'll come to later. But the bigger step has been for Marco Bezzecchi, who has really grown in his role as factory rider in Martin's absence.