MotoMatters.com | Kropotkin Thinks

At the end of the first day of the shakedown test at Sepang, Dorna sent out a press release and a small selection of photos to media outlets. You can read the press release below, but the photos provided a few interesting clues to what the factories have been working on. So here are the photos, with a few things I noticed.

Pedro Acosta (above), in pristine leathers on a clean Tech3 GASGAS RC16 (well, a KTM actually). Given the amount of dirt on the track (see below), this must be one of his early laps on the bike. More significant was the Spanish rookie's best time. His lap of 1:59.385 after a single day on a dirty track at Sepang is three tenths faster than Augusto Fernandez was after nearly six days of testing at Sepang in 2023. Fernandez had set his best time on a track that was well rubbered in, and with six days of testing under his belt. For Acosta to be this quick straight away is a sign that he might just live up to the hype.

This year's official IRTA MotoGP test at Sepang feels a little different. That is in no small part down to the new system of concessions, which gives Honda and Yamaha more freedom to test. As manufacturers in Rank D (having scored less than 35% of the total points on offer in 2023) Yamaha's and Honda's contracted riders have already been on track at the shakedown test, the three-day test traditionally reserved for the test riders to make sure everything is working for when the factory riders arrive. And as rookies are also allowed to test, Pedro Acosta has also already spent three days on track.

The shakedown test has had more attention paid to it than ever before. That is hardly a surprise, given that it featured the 2020 and 2021 world champions on track, as well as the most highly anticipated rookie since Marc Marquez. Instead of just an appetizer ahead of the main IRTA test course, the shakedown test has almost risen to the level of full test in its own right.

With aerodynamics, there is something for everyone. The changes are immediately obvious, and rarely subtle. The limited surface area offered by a motorcycle fairing means you need wings, strakes, pods, plates, and airfoils large enough to be visible even to a relative ingenue of the sport. That in itself increases interest.

Warming up

Should we read anything into the fact that Jorge Martin topped the timesheets after the first day of the Sepang MotoGP test? Beyond the fact that Martin is still extremely motivated to show Ducati just what a mistake they made by not promoting him to the factory team, either at the end of 2022 or after taking the title fight with Pecco Bagnaia all the way to the final round of 2023. Jorge Martin wanted to make a point, so he did.

What about Pedro Acosta? Sure, he was fastest against the test riders and the factory riders on Japanese bikes during the shakedown, but that wasn’t a real comparison. He wasn’t riding against the full grid then.

He was today. And Pedro Acosta ended the day just over a quarter of a second behind Martin, and ahead of the entire rest of the field. Does that mean he is a force to be reckoned with?

The GASGAS rider himself was not getting ahead of himself. His focus, he insisted, was on improving every time he went out on the back. Mission accomplished as of now.

And the standings at the end of day 1 at the Sepang test do not tell anywhere near a complete story. Few riders pushed for a really quick lap, and there was an awful lot of work going on. The fact that Acosta has had extra days on the bike and the track helps. But even given all these mitigating circumstances, to be within three tenths of Jorge Martin is an impressive feat.

After the first day of the Sepang MotoGP test, I wrote that you couldn’t really tell much about the state of the MotoGP grid just going by the timesheets. You can’t really tell all that much after the second day at Sepang either, but combine what the timesheets tell you with what the riders said and the beginning of a picture starts to emerge.

Why can’t you trust the timesheets? Because different factories are taking very different approaches to the test. And because different riders are working on different areas, on themselves, on the bike, and on different elements of a race weekend.

But at least we have had two full days of uninterrupted testing, the tropical rainstorms staying away so far. That looks set to change on the final day, with rain forecast for the Thursday afternoon. But the time that rain comes will dictate just how much testing the teams get done on the last day.

So what have the teams been working on? Aero, aero, and yet more aero. But a fair bit more as well.

Ducati - trust the process

It was supposed to rain on the last day of the MotoGP test, but it never did, and the teams ended up with three full days of running at the Sepang International Circuit. A rarity: the test usually sees at least one day briefly interrupted by rain, though the benefit of Sepang is that the track dries quickly, and you only lose at most a couple of hours. Rain at a European circuit means you lose half.a day or more. Which is one of the reasons MotoGP tests in Sepang.

Some of the teams did get a break anyway. The limit on the number of tires available automatically limits the amount of track time the factories have. It is a crude, but highly effective way of limiting spending, by making it physically impossible to test more.

But three full days at Sepang are extremely fruitful, and gave us a clear picture of where the factories stand. The evening is too short for me to paint the full picture - that will come over the next few days - but I can give you an impression of where things stand in MotoGP. The vibes, for each factory and a few selected riders.

Ducati: greatness beckons

On Wednesday, there were still some doubts about Ducati’s new fairing for the GP24. Those doubts were dispelled on Thursday, as the teams worked on setting up the rest of the bike to get the new aero package to work, to exploit its superior braking, and alleviate the issues in agility it created.

On Monday, the Red Bull KTM Factory Racing Team launched its 2024 livery. The paint scheme was the least interesting part of the presentation. It was, after all, pretty much identical to the livery used in the 2023 season. Given that very little has changed about the project, in terms of sponsors and team organization, there was no need for a revolution.

After the launch, team manager Francesco Guidotti and Pierer Mobility Group Motorsport Director Pit Beirer spoke to journalists about the goals of the team for 2024, how testing was going, and in the case of Beirer, looking ahead to the new MotoGP regulations due to be introduced in 2027. Much will change when the new set of technical regulations come into force in 2027. And some changes could be introduced earlier.

But first, Guidotti and Beirer talked about how the Sepang test had gone for the Red Bull KTM Factory Racing team. Ahead of the 2023 MotoGP season, there wasn’t much of a sense of where KTM stood. After Sepang, to outside observers, it looked like KTM were in much better shape going into 2024.

The two preseason tests for the MotoGP class are two entirely different beasts. Sepang is like Christmas morning, when the kids rush down to unpack all of the new toys laid there by Santa. Or in this case, the engineering groups of assorting motorcycle manufacturers.

Qatar, on the other hand, is more like the morning of departing on a long trip. There's a big list of things to check before you pull the door closed behind you and depart on your adventure. In this case, the 2024 MotoGP season.

In effect, Sepang is the filter, and Qatar is the finalization. Sepang is the place where the 2024 package is assembled, Qatar is the place it is knocked into shape ready for the race here in three weeks time.

The first day of the Qatar test went pretty much as you might expect. Michele Pirro was sent out to do the drudgery of the test rider: going out and turning laps as soon as the track opened to try to clean up a habitually filthy track. After half an hour, the Ducati test rider was joined by Pedro Acosta, the Tech3 GASGAS rookie eager to grab track time whatever the circumstances, racking up a total of 73 laps by the end of the day. That's 20+ more than most other riders, only Maverick Viñales and Marco Bezzecchi hitting the 60-lap mark.

By the end of the second hour of the test, the track was filling up, and as more and more riders lapped, the surface starting to clean up nicely. By the end of the first day, Pecco Bagnaia was lapping with a few tenths of the outright lap record set here last November by Luca Marini.

The preseason is finally over. Pecco Bagnaia was fastest at both Sepang and Qatar, so we can proclaim him 2024 MotoGP champion, right? Normally that would be a recipe for disappointment, but this time might just be different. Bagnaia was fastest in terms of outright lap time - an astonishing 0.810 seconds faster than Luca Marini's pole record from qualifying for last year's race, 2 seconds faster than the race lap record, and over 2.4 seconds than the best lap set in the sprint race.

We saw it at Sepang, and we are seeing it here, lap records being smashed by the 2024 bikes. Though that is not strictly accurate: the lap records are being smashed by the 2024 riders, as the 2023 bikes are also much faster than they were last year. Marc Marquez was 0.4 below Marini's pole records (set on a Ducati GP22, just to throw in yet another curveball), and Fabio Di Giannantonio, the rider who took Marini's place at the VR46 squad, was nearly three tenths faster than Marini was in November last year.

We are going faster this year. A fair bit is the bikes. Maybe a bit is the tires. Some of it is the tracks. But lap records are going to be destroyed.

The new regulations for 2024 seem tailor made for attacking Ducati. Will they work? Following winter testing in Portugal and Spain, Steve English gives his update.

After dominating the series for the last two years Alvaro Bautista has been hit by a weight penalty for 2024. A rider must now weight 80kg in their riding equipment or else have to ballast their bike. For Bautista it’s likely to be 7kg that will be added to his Ducati Panigale V4R but will it be enough to stop him?

For Bautista stopping is now a major concern. “I don’t think the new rules are fair,” said the double champion. “These bikes are already heavier than a MotoGP bike and hard to ride. Making them heavier makes it even more difficult for me. It’s a struggle with them and it’s a shame, because now at every track we will have to make adjustments to the setting because with the extra weight everything needs to be adjusted including how you ride the bike.”

His approach to braking zones will have to be adapted to cater for the extra weight and for the diminutive Spaniard, who will weigh 66kg in his riding equipment, this could leave him more vulnerable to attack on corner entry. His crew chief Giulio Nava will have to adapt the bike, but the biggest concern for Bautista has been his physical condition.