MotoMatters.com | Kropotkin Thinks

On Sunday we found out just what it takes to bring overtaking back to MotoGP. A light sprinkling of rain on the grid, a mad rush to swap bikes at the end of the first lap, and then rain increasing in intensity as the race goes on. Ideally the rain would have eased off after a while, so the race could have gone full distance, rather than being red flagged. But the 12 laps of Motegi which settled the final result showed just how good MotoGP can be when the racing is in the riders' hands, rather than in the hands of engineers.

After Saturday, rain was thought to be the only thing that could prevent another demonstration by Jorge Martin. The wildcard of a wet track would surely shake things up, and stymie his relentless march. But as Johann Zarco said on Saturday, "He's like in a bubble now. Everything he is doing is working well." That includes racing in the wet. Martin simply outclassed everyone else over half race distance on a soaking track.

Pecco Bagnaia put up resistance, and the outcome could perhaps have been different had the race gone on. But it didn't, and no one had an answer for Martin's superior drive.

Smarts plus talent

For most tracks, writing a preview is easy. Go back over the results of the last few races, examine the records of teams, bikes, riders, and extrapolate based on their historical performance and current form. For well-established tracks, the hard part is finding something new to say at the fifteenth time of asking.

None of the above is true for Pertamina Mandalika International Circuit. Yes, there has already been a MotoGP race at the track. But that race took place in such chaotic conditions that it is impossible to draw conclusions from it. What's more, since that race, the track has been completely resurfaced, rendering any data drawn from last year if not useless, then of limited utility.

Before I start, I feel compelled to warn you that you will not believe much of what follows. You will either reject it as hyperbole, or regard it as an unfair attack on a rider, and understating his talent. That, at least, is the lesson I have learned in writing about Marc Marquez over the years, and before that, about Casey Stoner and Valentino Rossi.

Because people have already made up their minds what they think about Marc Marquez, mostly based on that one grand prix in Sepang in 2015. Depending on your view of that incident, you are likely to believe either that Marc Marquez is washed up, with age and the aftereffects of the arm he broke at Jerez in 2020 making him a mere shadow of his former glory. Or he is yet to reach the peak of his talent, the Honda RC213V having turned into an albatross around his neck during his absence through injury.

Mandalika is turning out to resemble the Termas de Rio Hondo circuit in several aspects. A challenging layout that is fun to ride, but located in a remote region, and consequently not seeing much use. Added to that, Mandalika is close to a beach, and has construction work going on close by. Throw in an extended dry period and you have a recipe for a dusty and dirty track.

Which is a shame, as the resurfacing work has been a huge success. "Good grip, track is very flat, meaning that there's no bumps, the kerbs are very nice. So it was a good job," was Miguel Oliveira's verdict on Friday evening. That was echoed by factory Aprilia rider Aleix Espargaro. "Better everywhere and the good thing is that we went to some circuits when they put new asphalt and there was a lot of small bumps already. This track is perfect. There's no bumps. Yes, it's slippery, very slippery because there's no activity and there is a lot of dust. But every lap is better."

MotoGP championships are very hard to win and very easy to lose. They can be thrown away in an instant, or gradually slip through a rider's fingers as they keep consistently coming up short.

For the first half of the season, Pecco Bagnaia successfully defending his MotoGP crown looked virtually inevitable. Bagnaia was consistent while his rivals kept finding ways to squander points.

Since Barcelona, that trend has been reversed. After the sprint race in Barcelona, Bagnaia was leading Jorge Martin by 66 points. Since then, through a combination of a highside in the Barcelona grand prix and braking problems at Misano and India, Bagnaia's lead has leached away. By the start of the Mandalika weekend, Martin's lead was down to just 3 points.

On Friday, Bagnaia assured us all that the braking problems he had suffered in Misano and India had been fixed. But the massive slide he had in the final moments of timed practice on Friday suggested that he had traded those braking problems for issues with electronics and engine torque. He missed out on Q2 directly, and would have to go through Q1.

In Ancient Greece, the concept of hubris was a powerful force. In the mythological context, it meant to transgress against the gods, to best them or outwit them in some way. When Prometheus stole fire from the gods and gave it to mortals, or when Arachne, a simple shepherd's daughter, boasted that she was a more accomplished weaver than the goddess Athena.

Though hubris is equated with arrogance in its modern usage, the Ancient Greeks saw it as something more. It was not just to have the chutzpah to say you could outwit the gods in some way, but the talent to back it up. Arachne did not just claim to be a better weaver than Athena, but when she faced Athena in a contest, she produced work of such perfection that Athena ripped Arachne's work to shreds and hit her over the head with the shuttle of her loom, prompting Arachne to hang herself. She had exceeded the bounds set for her by the Fates.

There is an enduring argument among MotoGP fans over whether Mugello or Phillip Island is the greatest track on the MotoGP calendar. They are both peerless motorcycle racing tracks: fast, flowing corners, which challenge rider and machine, but where the rider can still make the difference. And they both produce fantastic racing because of it.

They both feature stunning backdrops. Mugello sits crammed in a Tuscan valley surrounded by verdant hills. Phillip Island sits on the edge of a low cliff overlooking the Bass Strait, the stretch of the Southern Ocean connecting the Australian mainland to Tasmania.

On paper, Phillip Island should win this contest. The Australian track is a little kinder to bikes which lack in horsepower, despite MotoGP machines hitting well over 355 km/h. There is really only one place where bikes can use their ride-height devices, the nature of the corners nullifying the advantage which the bike-lowering technology brings.

With everyone safely ensconced in the Phillip Island paddock, the MotoGP riders have been pouring out expressions of love for the circuit. "When you arrive to a place where you are good, where you enjoy, then when you land on the plane there is a smile on your face," Alex Rins explained. "It happens to me when I arrive in Melbourne." Knowing that he will be riding the Phillip Island circuit brings its own kind of excitement, he said. "It is a special place and really amazing."

He wasn't the only one to sing the praises of Phillip Island. What makes the track so special? "It's all these fast corners that are very interesting, when you feel good in these corners the adrenaline is so high," Johann Zarco said. The fast corners are also what makes the racing so close, the Pramac Ducati rider explained. "That's why we are also always in a group, because if you want to catch the guy in front of you, you can quickly do a difference of 10 km/h into the corner and catch the guy in front of you."

We suspected it might be coming, but it took until the end of Friday afternoon to confirm. As predicted yesterday, Dorna and Race Direction announced that the MotoGP race on Sunday has been swapped with Saturday's sprint race. The full-length 27-lap race will start at 3:10pm on Saturday afternoon, and the 13-lap sprint race will kick off at 2pm on Sunday. If it kicks off at all.

The reason is simple: the weather. Gale force winds are predicted for Sunday, and it is uncertain whether it will be safe to ride. So Dorna made sure that the main event of the weekend, the full-length grand prix race for the MotoGP class, will at least happen.

Dorna have never made a secret of MotoGP being their main priority, and Chief Sporting Officer Carlos Ezpeleta reaffirmed that explicitly in the press conference announcing the new schedule. The most important thing was to hold the full MotoGP race, and reschedule around the rest.

Sometimes the weather does you a favor. The choice to move the MotoGP feature race at Phillip Island from Sunday to Saturday was vindicated. We got a tense race that blew up in the final laps, and more than one surprise on the podium. And all because the race happened in conditions that do the track justice.

Before I get to the race, this summary will necessarily be brief. I am likely to have plenty of time on Sunday to continue to write about the race, as although there are three warm up sessions and three races scheduled for Sunday at Phillip Island, the omens are not looking good. Apart from heavy rain, the winds, which have already reached gale force, are likely to only get stronger. Wind speeds don't look they will drop much below 50 km/h, climbing to a peak of around 70 km/h from about 3pm.