MotoMatters.com | Kropotkin Thinks

Like Friday at Portimão, the first day of the Argentinean round of MotoGP confounded expectations. In Portugal, we all believed that the two days of testing which had happened two weeks previously would mean a smooth and uneventful Friday. Instead we had a power cut and a huge accident for Pol Espargaro which has left him ruled out of action until Mugello at the earliest, causing two red flags.

At the Termas de Rio Hondo circuit, the expectation was that the first day would be difficult. A dirty track, the threat of rain, and the first weekend of the new schedule (revised to make space for sprint races) at a track where the riders hadn't tested and the teams had gigabytes of data. Going into a weekend blind could have been a recipe for disaster. But in fact, Friday went swimmingly.

Even the weather cooperated, mostly. Black clouds lingered threateningly for most of the day, but after the overnight rain, proceedings were only briefly interrupted between the first practice sessions for Moto3 and Moto2. There was only the wind to contend with, a strong wind creating problems in several places around the track.

Blowy out there

Two Saturdays, two sprint races, and five riders down. MotoGP's sprint races continue their trend of being thrilling and terrifying in equal measure. They produce compelling racing, but the riders are constantly skirting disaster.

And sometimes failing to skirt it: Joan Mir crashed on the first lap, and was taken to hospital for scans on his ankle. MotoGP medical expert Dr Charte told Spanish broadcaster DAZN that Mir had suffered a concussion, and so could miss the grand prix on Sunday. He is due to be evaluated again on Sunday morning, but if he does miss the race, that would bring the grid down to 17. Very threadbare indeed.

Still, there is no argument that the sprint races are exciting. Even the riders think so, though their attitude to the excitement varies with their appetite for risk. And their willingness to fight, and to defend aggressively.

Cutthroat business

"You make a little mistake and two guys go past," Maverick Viñales said on Saturday after the race. "If you close a little bit the door, boom! Someone hits you." The only way to avoid that is to qualify at the front of the grid, and try to make a getaway at the start.

What did we learn from the Grand Prix of Argentina from Termas de Rio Hondo? First and foremost, we learned not to trust weather forecasts. It was supposed to rain on Friday, and it turned out fine. It was supposed to be fine on Saturday and Sunday, and there were patches of rain on Saturday and a downpour on Sunday.

We also learned that grip levels change everything. In the dry and in the wet, as grip changes, so do the relative strengths and weaknesses of the bikes and riders. We saw that most clearly in the Yamaha garage, where Franco Morbidelli was suddenly outperforming Fabio Quartararo through practice, qualifying, and the sprint race, mainly because Morbidelli gets faster as grip drops off, and there was very little grip available at Termas.

And we saw Marco Bezzecchi fulfill the potential we all believed he had, dominating the feature race on Sunday after getting tangled up on Saturday, and having to settle for a podium.

Ducati may have swept the podium and stolen the headlines in Argentina, but behind the triumphant trio of Marco Bezzecchi, Johann Zarco and Alex Marquez there was plenty of fascinating detail to examine. There were surprises, such as Franco Morbidelli outperforming Fabio Quartararo on the Yamaha throughout the weekend, the Aprilias failing in the wet where they had been so strong last year and in the dry, and Jack Miller sealing another strong weekend for KTM. We also had 17 riders lining up on the grid, after Joan Mir was ruled unfit after his crash in the sprint race on Saturday.

But let's start with conditions. Racing in the rain is always difficult enough, but the Termas de Rio Hondo circuit presents an additional challenge. Though the track had been cleaned up by the time the race started, both with blower trucks and by having two days of grand prix machines circulating, there was still a lot of mud and dust around the circuit. Add in a morning of heavy rain, and the spray coming up from the bikes ahead wasn't just water, it was a mixture of water and dirt.

Once upon a time, the only question you needed to ask about the Grand Prix of The Americas at the Circuit of The Americas in Austin, Texas, was who would be coming second to Marc Marquez. The Repsol Honda rider has owned this racetrack since MotoGP first started coming here in 2013. It was the site of his first ever victory in MotoGP, which also made him the youngest ever winner in the premier class of grand prix racing, taking the title from Freddie Spencer.

2023 will be different. For a start, Marc Marquez will be absent from the US round of MotoGP in Austin, as he is still recovering from fracturing the metacarpal in his right thumb in a crash with Miguel Oliveira, in the opening round of the season at Portimão. Even if he hadn't injured his thumb, he might have been handicapped by having to serve a Double Long Lap penalty, ironically handed down to him by that self-same Freddie Spencer in his capacity of Chairman of the FIM Stewards Panel. (Or possibly not: see this story for the background to the stay issued by the MotoGP Court of Appeal for the penalty.)

So far, the 2023 season has started very similarly to the 2022 season. Portimão saw a bunch of riders crash out and get injured, Argentina was typically low grip, with the weather adding in a curveball. We've had surprise winners, and an unexpected championship leader, Marco Bezzecchi taking over from Pecco Bagnaia at the top of the tables.

The Grand Prix of The Americas is following that familiar pattern. Sure, Jorge Martin is fastest overall, hardly a surprise given the Pramac Ducati rider's renown for punching out a fast lap. Even when felled by fever, and unable to do more than two fast laps in a row, Martin still managed to find the speed for one fast lap, good enough to get within a couple of tenths of the outright pole record (held, you will doubtless be shocked to hear, by Jorge Martin).

And sure, Pecco Bagnaia was second quickest, the reigning world champion back to his old self after his minor but costly mistake in Argentina. The factory Ducati rider is comfortable and fast, both in qualifying and in race trim.

Sprint race number three is in the books, and despite the crashes – three in the ten-lap sprint around the Circuit of The Americas in Austin, Texas – everyone made it back to the pits pretty much in one piece and ready to go for Sunday. After the attrition of Portimão and Argentina, this was a welcome change.

Saturday underlined once again what a massive change the sprint races are for MotoGP. They change everything: there is no such thing as "it's only Friday" any longer, as Friday determines who gets through to Q2 directly, and who has the stress of trying to pass through Q1. With qualifying counting for two races rather than one, a spot on the front two rows is now utterly vital.

Conditions had changed too. A very heavy fall of rain overnight had flooded into some of the temporary offices in the paddock, and left the track green and still damp in the morning. Then, when the sun came out, temperatures soared, track temps creeping up towards the high 40s°C.

The complaint commonly leveled at the Circuit of The Americas in Austin, Texas, is that it does not produce great racing. And this is often true. But not this Sunday. In 2023, the fans who flocked to COTA for MotoGP saw three great races on Sunday, and a whole heap of surprises.

The Moto2 race was a great example of how a track like COTA can produce a tense and exciting race. Marc VDS rider Tony Arbolino and Pedro Acosta of the KTM Ajo squad broke away shortly before the halfway mark and a hard chase ensued. At a track which is as physically demanding as COTA, Acosta knew he had to plan an attack on Arbolino, rather than just try to pass and having to spend the rest of the race battling. The additional energy that would take would leave them both with nothing left to finish the race.

So Acosta waited. When Arbolino ran wide into Turn 1, Acosta seized the lead, but the effort of leading saw him outbrake himself and run a little wide into Turn 12. Arbolino snatched back the lead, while Acosta slid back in behind him. On the last lap, Acosta attacked again into Turn 12, the tight left hander at the end of the back straight, and snatched back the lead.

They say that the season only really begins when MotoGP returns to Europe and the paddock assembles again in Jerez. The first few races, usually flyaways, present too jumbled a picture to make complete sense of the MotoGP season. With everyone back at a track where they have thousands of laps and petabytes of data, the real strengths and weaknesses come to the fore.

Critics of this idea point to the fact that in 2023, the season started in Europe already, the first round of the season having taken place at Portimão in Portugal. But anyone who has ever been to Portimão (or frankly, seen it on TV) will know that the Portuguese circuit is like nothing else on the calendar, the elevation changes and mixture of slow and fast corners giving it its unique character. Add in Argentina – a fast flowing track that only really get used once a year, and has probably the lowest grip surface of the year – and Austin – the most physically demanding circuit of the year, replete with bumps and sketchy asphalt in places – and you have three races which are a long way from being typical of the season.

Jerez feels like the real start of the season for other reasons as well. A track and event steeped in history, with one of the loudest and most passionate crowds of the year. An ancient Spanish city which exudes motorcycling passion and culture. Great food, great wine, and a warm and welcoming local populace. This is how the start of a MotoGP season is supposed to be.

Though it is always a pleasure to have wildcard riders to spice up the grid, you expect them to add a bit of color, and then ride around in the vain hope of a top ten. What you don't expect – at least, not since the demise of the 500s at the beginning of the century – is for a wildcard rider to turn up at a circuit and top the first session of practice immediately. Shades of Norick Abe at Suzuka in 1994.

I had been tipped about Dani Pedrosa by someone who was at the private MotoGP test at Jerez before Austin. Word was he was fast, and looking determined. That tip proved to be golden, the KTM test rider, entered as a wildcard at Jerez, ending the morning session of practice as fastest, and third fastest overall on the first day.

"Very happy and a good day," Pedrosa said in his usual understated way. "Unexpected obviously. Happy for the team and for the fans. It was a surprise, this morning especially. I had a good feeling. It is my first ’36 in this track. I am happy to improve the lap time with my age! It’s nice."