MotoMatters.com | Kropotkin Thinks

Saturday at Buriram gave us a glimpse of the future. If you want to know what the sprint races will look like next year, look no further than the fact that Ducati have secured their sixth front-row lockout of the season, that there were five Ducatis in the first two rows, and that there were two more on the third row. It was the thirteenth time a Ducati qualified on pole this year, in seventeen events.

Only Fabio Quartararo (Indonesia), Aleix Espargaro (Argentina and Barcelona), and Marc Marquez (Motegi) have prevented Ducati from sweeping an entire season's worth of poles. Pecco Bagnaia is just two races away from winning the BMW M award as best qualifier, which features seven Ducati riders in the top nine.

The bike really does play a very large role in that dominance of qualifying. With his breathtaking last lap, breaking Fabio Quartararo's pole record from 2019, Marco Bezzecchi became the seventh Ducati rider to secure pole this year. Only Bezzecchi's Mooney VR46 teammate Luca Marini is letting the side down, though Marini has been close, starting from the front row twice this year.

After a weekend of waiting, the rain finally came on Sunday. It had been forecast for Friday, but Friday stayed dry. It was forecast again on Saturday, but Saturday was dry as well. In the run up to the Grand Prix of Thailand, Sunday had looked like offering the best chance of remaining dry. But that forecast proved to be wrong as well.

The trouble started as the Moto2 race was about to get underway. A few raindrops on the grid quickly turned into a downpour. After a brief delay, the organizers started the race, but it would only last 8 laps before conditions forced Race Direction to red flag it, spray and standing water making it impossible to complete the race safely.

Several abortive attempts to restart the race followed, but when another downpour started as the Moto2 bikes got halfway round the track on the sighting lap to the grid, the red flag went out again and the race was called. With less than two-thirds distance completed, half points were awarded, much to the consternation of anti-decimal faction of the MotoGP paddock who abhor the ugliness of a points table which does not consist solely of integers.

One complaint has consistently run through the past couple of MotoGP seasons, it has been the pressure of the front tire. Pick just about any race and you will find riders saying that rising pressures and therefore (Boyle's Law) temperatures of the front tire cost them a better result. At Jerez, for example, Fabio Quartararo had been unable to do much more than follow Pecco Bagnaia home because every time he got into the Italian's slipstream, the temperature of the front tire would rise, as would the pressure, making it impossible form him to outbrake the Ducati.

At Motegi, it was Bagnaia who was struggling with increased front pressure as he followed Quartararo around, eventually contributing to his crash. Enea Bastianini had similar issues that race. In Aragon, where Quartararo had real trouble in 2021, the Yamaha rider was planning his tire pressure around his starting position, not that it ended up mattering much after he crashed into the back of Marc Marquez.

When I wrote about the difficult situation MotoGP finds itself in with respect to the new front tire Michelin is developing in an attempt to address the increasing problems with tire temperature and pressure, the immediate response, especially on Twitter, was "MotoGP should just ban ride-height devices and aerodynamics". While this is a charming notion, it is also utterly impractical. To paraphrase a quote from a movie about ill-thought out decisions, those commenters were so preoccupied with what MotoGP should, they didn't stop to think whether they could.

If you talk to independent team bosses, they have no love for either aerodynamics or ride-height devices. Similarly, senior officials within Dorna and IRTA have expressed a dislike for both technologies. If they could, they would get ride of ride-height devices tomorrow, and aerodynamics shortly after. Even a severe restriction on aerodynamics would be welcomed.

What Dorna would like to do, and what they can do, are two very different things, however. The formal process for changing the MotoGP technical regulations has been set out in detail, and simply do not allow Dorna to change the rules.

Why is it that arguably the greatest motorcycle racing track in the world is built in exactly the wrong place? Sure, the scenery at Phillip Island is spectacular: photos of riders heading down the Gardner Straight looking like they are about to fire off into the Bass Strait have become iconic. But to actually get to create that image? It's one hell of a trek, facing considerable challenges.

The circuit sits balanced on the top of a cliff overlooking the Bass Strait, not quite at the southernmost point of the Australian continent, but not far off. It is located on Phillip Island, normally a place for a quiet vacation, or to go to watch the Penguin Parade, when large numbers of little penguins come ashore at sunset. Phillip Island is two hours from Melbourne, 1000km from Sydney, and 2600km from Jack Miller's home in Townsville, Queensland.

The remoteness of Phillip Island lends it a great deal of charm. Accessible only via a two-lane bridge, and with a number of small towns on the island, it has a rustic, wild feel. A place to surf, to wander the cliffs, to stand and stare across the sea, and ponder the majesty of nature and your own insignificance in that greater whole.

The pilgrim's way

Phillip Island is going to Phillip Island. A truth universally acknowledged, that whatever you thought the weather was going to do at the glorious racetrack overlooking the Bass Strait, the weather systems powered by the mighty Southern Ocean will always have a mind of their own.

So the day started off bright and relatively sunny, confounding forecasts of rain on Friday. "The thing in this country is that is it so difficult to predict the weather," Pecco Bagnaia said. "It was raining a lot yesterday but then it was completely dry during FP2 so it is difficult to know."

The rain from Thursday had left a lot of water around the track, but the strong wind had dried most of the track out, bar a couple of sections where water ran across the surface, including at the last corner and around Siberia. It made FP1 extremely difficult. "Coming back to the Island after three years was quite nice," Alex Rins said. "Sincerely FP1 was so difficult and so dangerous. With two-three wet patches crossing the track and it was on the limit for those conditions and with some kerbs full of water."

It has been a long time coming, but Jorge Lorenzo's pole record from 2013 has fallen at last. Lorenzo's 1'27.899 was MotoGP's most long-standing record, the then factory Yamaha rider smashing the previous pole record, set by Casey Stoner in 2008 by seven tenths of a second.

Why did Lorenzo's record stand for so long? Those with a long memory will remember that Phillip Island was last resurfaced at the end of 2012, with Stoner being used as a consultant on the project. The new asphalt increased the available grip by a massive amount. Fergus Cameron, managing director of the circuit at the time, told the New Atlas website, "On a scale of 0-110 on a friction coefficient test the old surface was at 54 or 55 and the new surface is at 78, so the new surface is much grippier."

The Omnishambles

If there is one thing which is bound to rile up the fans and get them complaining, it is the prospect of a race which requires the riders to carefully manage their tires. "Let them race!" people cry. "It should be a test of who goes fastest, not who can save their tires!" The clamor invariably ends up with a single, indignant demand: "Bring back the tire wars!"

If you needed proof of the wrongness of that opinion, you need only look at Sunday's Australian Grand Prix at Phillip Island. In a race where tire preservation was paramount, we saw countless passing maneuvers throughout the race, a pass for the win on the last lap, and the first seven riders finishing within a second of one another. Yes, you read that right. The top seven were within one second. 0.884, actually.

We are nearing the climax of the 2022 MotoGP season. At Phillip Island, Pecco Bagnaia took over the championship lead from Fabio Quartararo, Bagnaia scoring a podium, Quartararo first making a mistake and the crashing out. The factory Ducati rider now leads the reigning champion by 14 points, and Aleix Espargaro by 27 points.

So what has to happen for Bagnaia to be crowned champion at Sepang? The MotoGP press office provided this handy list of calculations. Bagnaia will win the 2022 MotoGP title at Sepang if the following things happen:

•  Bagnaia wins and Quartararo doesn’t finish on the podium,
•  Bagnaia finishes P2, Quartararo doesn’t finish better than P7 and Espargaro doesn’t win,
•  Bagnaia finishes P3, Quartararo doesn’t finish better than P11 and Espargaro doesn’t finish on the podium,
•  Bagnaia finishes P4, Quartararo doesn’t finish better than P14 and Espargaro doesn’t finish on the podium,
•  Bagnaia finishes P5, Quartararo fails to score any points and Espargaro doesn’t finish on the podium.

Basically, Bagnaia has to finish in the top five and score 11 more points than Quartararo. Bagnaia needs Aleix Espargaro to finish off the podium, or not win if Bagnaia is second. And whatever happens, Bagnaia has to finish in the top five. If he doesn't, the championship goes to Valencia.

Outsider

The weather in the tropics is always a gamble. At some places, you can set your clock by the rains during monsoon season. If it's 3:45pm, you're about to get soaked. At others, you only know that at some point during the afternoon, a lot of rain is going to fall. It might rain at 1pm. Or it might rain at 5pm. But of one thing you can be certain: a hard rain is gonna fall, and it will flood the track.

Friday at Sepang the rain came shortly after 2:15pm, less than a quarter of the way through the Moto2 FP2 session. Light at first, then more heavily, then a torrent of water from the heavens, forcing a red flag, and a delay of an hour.

It caught everyone by surprise. The forecast had been for dry weather through the afternoon, and teams had made their plans accordingly. That meant that in FP1, a lot of riders didn't bother putting in a set of soft tires to chase a fast lap, expecting to improve in the afternoon.