MotoMatters.com | Kropotkin Thinks

As the KTM saga rumbles on, it churns up an incredible amount of speculation and rumor in its wake. And as sure as bears performing their ablutions in the outdoors, the name of BMW pops up as a potential candidate to take over KTM's spot on the MotoGP grid.

I realize I am offering a giant hostage to fortune here, but I can confidently predict this will not happen. I have already written two pieces this year explaining why I do not believe BMW will enter MotoGP, but KTM's insolvency means more people asking me whether BMW are set to take their place. The answer, I still believe, is no.

The good news

But first, a quick update on the situation around KTM. Gerald Dirnbeck at Motorsport-Total quotes Austrian newspaper Der Standard, who have a report on the latest developments.

The good news for the people working at KTM is that their December salaries will be paid as promised. The good news for the company is that the Boston Consulting Group (BCG), in a report commission by KTM for their insolvency proceedings, sees plenty of potential for KTM's motorcycle manufacturing arm. They report that they expect to see annual growth of more than 10% in what they describe as KTM's 'core markets', and stable growth of 3.5% in the off-road segment, where KTM is the undisputed market leader with a market share of between 40% and 60%.

The BCG report says that KTM has a solid future, though it faces difficult challenges, including reducing manufacturing costs. That may require KTM to look outside of Austria, Germany, and Switzerland for the production and sourcing of some components. They may also need to cut down on the number of brands they sell. That would mean shelving one or both of GASGAS and Husqvarna, and concentrating on the core KTM brand.

The bad news

The bad news for KTM is that the report finds that their spending on R&D and motorsport is simply too high. According to the report by the insolvency representative, KTM spent €200 million on R&D in 2023, and €95 million on motorsport. Of those, €46 million were spent on their roadracing program, meaning MotoGP, Moto2, and Moto3.

In the report by the AKV (Alpine Creditors Association representing KTM's creditors), one of the proposed measures was to shut down the MotoGP, Moto2, and Moto3 projects. In a statement from KTM, they said that they will be racing in MotoGP in 2025. And according to Der Standard, KTM will be withdrawing from MotoGP at the end of the 2025 season.

At the moment, all of KTM's racing activities are housed in a separate company, Factory Racing. This covers rally, motocross, enduro, and all of KTM's roadracing classes. The most obvious course of action for KTM would be to try to find a buyer, either for all of Factory Racing, or to split the racing department up further into separate companies for off-road and circuit racing.

For sale, one owner, lovingly tended

It seems fairly clear from public statements that KTM is doing everything possible to save its racing program. In a couple of interviews with Speedweek's Ivo Schützbach, KTM's motorsport director Pit Beirer has hinted at a couple of options.

Firstly, that they are looking to Liberty Media to bring more money into the sport, and especially at the model of F1, where Liberty pay the teams a large amount of money to compete. Beirer pointed out that KTM is very much the backbone of the series, with the Red Bull Rookies, a large chunk of the Moto3 grid, a team in Moto2 and four bikes in MotoGP. They wanted to "focus more on business and not just on sports sponsorship".

But KTM have also found new sponsors (as yet unnamed) according to Beirer. "I would like to include one or two of the investors among the partners," he told Speedweek. Given that we know Bajaj is one of the investors looking at expanding their holding in KTM, it would make sense for them to be looking at racing.

F1 calling

KTM have also had contact with investors already involved in F1, Beirer said. Those investors "have a completely different view of how things may develop for us," he said. KTM have high hopes of what the takeover by Liberty Media - currently still on hold pending a Phase II investigation by the EU Competition Commission - will bring.

KTM are not unique in this. The great hope of everyone in MotoGP is that Liberty Media will bring more money into the sport, by raising its profile and finding outside investment. At the moment, MotoGP relies mainly on industry sponsorship and money from energy drinks. That is a limiting factor on growth.

Secondly, KTM have already had talks about selling their racing division, Beirer told Speedweek. One of the names he mentioned was the investment company run by F1 driver Lewis Hamilton's management. There have been reports throughout 2024 that Hamilton was interested in owning a MotoGP team, albeit after he had finished his active racing career.

Beirer told Speedweek there had been "very interesting discussions" with Hamilton's management. Whether those result in anything concrete is open to question. But it is certainly good for KTM for news of such talks to be in the public domain. Having one interested party in a company will often attract others.

Potential partners

So it is clear KTM Factory Racing is up for sale, either as a whole, or divided into separate off-road and circuit parts. The prime candidate is of course Red Bull - "Red Bull and KTM are an indivisible pair" Beirer told Speedweek - though it remains to be seen whether the energy drink giant has an interest in actually buying KTM Factory Racing. The balance of power in the company has changed subtly since the death of co-owner Dieter Mateschitz, his children not holding the same sway, nor having the same interest in motorsports as their father.

If not Red Bull, then who? Current partner Bajaj would make a great deal of sense, especially as Bajaj has just launched its first foray into the European motorcycle market. CFMOTO is another possibility, the Chinese manufacturer expanding its involvement in the European bike market and moving strongly into racing.

That's a no from Munich

But not BMW, as far as I am concerned. Yes, BMW are already active in WorldSBK, and have a very strong presence in MotoGP. But that doesn't mean they are both willing and able to take over KTM's racing program and use it as a basis for MotoGP. As I have set out previously, BMW already gain plenty of exposure from their sponsorship of the series, supplying safety cars and medical vehicles. And an entry into MotoGP would need approval by BMW's board, on which the CEO of the motorcycle division, Markus Flasch, does not sit.

But there are two more reasons why I do not believe BMW will enter MotoGP as a manufacturer. The first is because people fundamentally misunderstand why BMW are active in MotoGP in the first place.

When you visit a circuit, you will see plenty of BMW branding all over the place, on signage, on posters, on trackside hoardings. All of the safety vehicles - primarily safety cars and cars carrying the doctors to the site of a crash after a red flag - are supplied by BMW. Wherever he is in the world, Dorna CEO Carmelo Ezpeleta travels to the circuit in a high-end BMW (and gets to park inside the paddock, perhaps the best perk of the job).

BMW also have a special hospitality unit inside the paddock. But it is not so much for entertainment, but rather, it is part of BMW's sales program. For sales of their cars, that is, not their motorcycles.

Two into four

Because BMW are in MotoGP to boost sales of their cars. They have selected arguably the best photographer in the paddock to supply them with publicity shots of the cars, which they use in sales material. Their guest unit houses a sales office, for VIP guests attending races. There are always BMW cars on show in the paddock. BMW uses MotoGP to boost their M line of vehicles, their high-end sports sub-brand.

One of the perks of holding a permanent MotoGP pass is that some manufacturers will offer you a discount on their vehicles. When I was looking at buying a new motorcycle at the end of 2021, I enquired about the options. KTM was one of the manufacturers willing to offer a discount. BMW will also offer a discount, but only on their cars, not on their motorcycles. I asked explicitly about this, and was told no. I had to haggle with my own dealer for a discount, and what discount I got had more to do with buying in December than my involvement with MotoGP.

(And yes, I know how incredibly privileged MotoGP pass holders are that we get discounts from manufacturers.)

If BMW are in MotoGP to sell cars, how will entering as a manufacturer help their cause? They already get all the exposure they need for their M brand with the current setup, and pouring a vast amount of money into racing bikes won't make that much difference.

The wrong type of bike

And to be honest, BMW don't need help selling their motorcycles. The BMW GS is the best-selling large capacity motorcycle in the most important markets, with BMW selling over 60,000 of them in 2023, shared between the R1250 and R1300 models. The GS is the archetype of the large adventure bike, and no other manufacturer comes anywhere near its numbers.

BMW's success is built on its GS models, with an important role for the various touring models such as the RT. Racing in MotoGP is not going to move the dial in those markets. And if the German manufacturer wants to sell more of its range of sports bikes, they have the M1000RR with Toprak Razgatlioglu's #1 plate to show off.

This leads into the other reason why BMW is an unlikely candidate to purchase KTM's MotoGP project. BMW and KTM have always maintained a fierce rivalry in the important adventure bike segment. Though BMW may gain a lot of knowhow and expertise if they were to buy KTM Factory Racing, it would be something of a loss of face for them. BMW pride themselves on developing their own technology, so to buy it from outside would be a bad look.

So even though KTM's racing program is up for sale, and is an attractive prospect, BMW does not seem like a good fit as a buyer. There are too many obstacles - financial, organizational, marketing, cultural - to be overcome. And there are too few benefits for it to be worth BMW's while.

Who goes where?

If KTM can't find a buyer for their racing department, it will cause a certain amount of consternation on the rider market. If KTM pulls out leaving just 18 bikes on the grid, then that would leave four riders without a seat in 2026. Pedro Acosta and Brad Binder from the factory team, and Maverick Viñales and Enea Bastianini at Tech3.

Coincidentally, there are four riders out of contract at the end of 2025. Luca Marini at factory Honda, Jack Miller at Pramac, Johann Zarco at LCR Honda, and Franco Morbidelli at VR46 Ducati. (Somkiat Chantra's contract announcement was only for 2025, but it is safe to assume he will be there in 2026 as well.)

Those four seats make for fairly easy calculations of who goes where. Pedro Acosta is at the stage of his career where he wants to win races and challenge for championships, and Ducati will not want him on another bike where he could disrupt their plans for domination. Replacing Morbidelli with Acosta and giving Acosta a factory GP26 is a no-brainer.

Brad Binder would be a good fit in factory Honda, though it would mean the loss of Luca Marini's development skills. And either Enea Bastianini or possibly Toprak Razgatlioglu could fit in at Pramac Yamaha, as the WorldSBK champion has strong ties to Yamaha still, despite his departure.

Johann Zarco seems safe at LCR, as his contribution to Honda in 2024 has been of outsized proportion. Maverick Viñales has too many burnt bridges - at Yamaha and Aprilia - to make him a target worth pursuing, and it is rumored that HRC have already vetoed any suggestion he would join them. That leaves only Ducati, but Ducati are already overflowing with talent, and have no need of his services.

If Tech3 manage to find another couple of bikes from somewhere - and it seems likely that Dorna will put a lot of pressure on the factories to produce two more bikes and bring the grid up to 20 - then that would offer salvation for a couple of the riders losing seats.

So yes, the loss of KTM would mean the rider market would face something of a shake up. But not necessarily much of a revolution. That will have to wait until 2026, when everyone's contract is up.

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